Oscar Pannifex breaks down every game of Round 6 and provides his best betting plays of the weekend.
On the back of an undefeated start to the regular season, we’re seeing Penrith try a few new things in attack. Statistically speaking (offloads, total receipts, line engagements etc), they’re still playing the same old brand of football but by the eye test, this is the most expansive version of the Panthers attack we’ve ever seen.
By contrast, Canterbury fought their way back into the game against Souths last week courtesy of some nice involvements from their bench but an injury to Stephen Crichton halted all momentum. With debate continuing to rage over the best version of this Bulldogs attack, I’m sticking with the Panthers juggernaut.
Tips
Best: Penrith 13+ @ $1.55
Anytime Try Scorers: Casey McLean @ $1.80 & Blaize Talagi @ $3.60
SGM: Penrith 13+ + Casey McLean Anytime Try + Blaize Talagi Anytime Try @ $7.53
Kieran Foran made a stellar coaching debut in NRL Round 5, picking apart the Dolphins edges in good-ball to get the most out of his backrowers on either edge. Between Haumole Olakau’atu and Ben Trbojevic, Manly have two creative and destructive options on either tramline and that’s where I’m looking here.
It’s a good match up against a St George outfit that also uses their edge forwards to good effect, but it’s Manly with all the momentum right now. There are spots on either edge for Foran’s Sea Eagles to target so I’ll tip them to play to their strengths down the left.
Tips
Best: Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Lehi Hopoate @ $1.80
SGM: Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 1-12 + Lehi Hopoate Anytime Try @ $5.41
North Queensland’s attack is one of the most difficult to contain in the NRL when the Cowboys are rolling downhill. Given a look at an injury-depleted Broncos side here, there’s reason to believe Tom Dearden and Scott Drinkwater can orchestrate enough points on the edges to keep this interesting.
That being said, North Queensland’s middle remains a concern. St George punched holes through their ruck last week without capitalising on any half-chances but Brisbane – and Ezra Mam – won’t be so tardy.
Tips
Best: Brisbane Broncos 1-12 @ $2.95
Anytime Try Scorers: Ezra Mam @ $2.45, Gehamat Shibasaki @ $2.30 & Xavier Willison @ $5.60
SGM: Brisbane Broncos 1-12 + Ezra Mam Anytime Try + Gehamat Shibasaki Anytime Try + Xavier Willison Anytime Try @ $106.08
Souths impressed to stop the rot against Canterbury last week when the Bulldogs found some momentum either side of halfway. They’re doing enough of the little things right without the ball to eventually earn moments in attack for the likes of Latrell Mitchell and Jye Gray in good-ball.
Canberra on the other hand are down on confidence and searching for a winning formula. Ethan Sanders profiles as a long-term NRL player but he’s learning on the run right now as a rookie halfback in one of the more chaotic systems in the comp.
I’m expecting Canberra to try and keep things simple here but Souths profile just as well in the grind.
Tips
Best: South Sydney Rabbitohs Win @ $1.52
Anytime Try Scorers: Jack Wighton @ $3.30 & Campbell Graham @ $1.80
SGM: South Sydney Rabbitohs Win + Jack Wighton Anytime Try + Campbell Graham Anytime Try @ $6.88
We saw the best version of this Sharks attack last week as they found points on either edge against a hapless Warriors side. With all four of Blayke Brailey, Braydon Trindall, Nicho Hynes and Will Kennedy enjoying their moments on the ball, Cronulla excelled at reacting to cues and turning half chances into points in NRL Round 5.
They can do so again here, particularly down their left edge to make a target of Daly Cherry-Evans, but not if Easts win the play-the-ball prior.
New Zealand allowed Cronulla to play with far too much ruck speed last week but I can’t see the Roosters doing the same.
Tips
Best: Sydney Roosters Win @ $1.82
Anytime Try Scorers: Daniel Tupou @ $1.78 & Angus Crichton @ $3.45
SGM: Sydney Roosters Win + Daniel Tupou Anytime Try + Angus Crichton Anytime Try @ $7.85
Two sides coming off two disappointing defensive performances has this one set up for an old fashioned grind.
Melbourne are feeling the pinch of a skinny roster this season while the Wahs hot-start to the year has faded as they also navigate injuries to key players. Chanel Harris-Tavita comes back in to round out a familiar New Zealand halves pairing and I’m keen to be with the combinations down that Warriors left edge.
Tips
Best: New Zealand Warriors 1-12 @ $4.00
Anytime Try Scorer: Leka Halasima @ $2.65
SGM: New Zealand Warriors 1-12 + Leka Halasima Anytime Try @ $8.41
The Gold Coast had their moments against an injury-hit Brisbane outfit last week and now meet a severely depleted Eels side at home. There’s a bit to like about their attack through Jayden Campbell here given how Parramatta’s ruck has opened up to begin the year, while AJ Brimson is also a clear play-to target for the Titans down that left edge.
The hits just keep coming for Parramatta and for all the good Mitch Moses is doing on the ball, they don’t have the defensive systems or personnel right now to back him up.
Tips
Best: Gold Coast Titans Win @ $2.25
Anytime Try Scorers: Jayden Campbell @ $2.90, AJ Brimson @ $2.80 & Beau Fermor @ $3.35
SGM: Gold Coast Titans Win + Jayden Campbell Anytime Try + AJ Brimson Anytime Try + Beau Fermor Anytime Try @ $36.99
Justin Holbrook’s stocks keep rising with the Newcastle Knights sitting third on the NRL ladder heading into Round 6.
The Knights have impressed to keep things simple and play the percentages while Dylan Brown and Kalyn Ponga are sidelined; they’ve kept their opposition to under 18 points in all four wins to date but I’m not sure they can do the same against a growing Tigers attack.
Tips
Best: Wests Tigers Win @ $1.70
Anytime Try Scorers: Dom Young Anytime Try @ $1.77 & Samuela Fainu Anytime Try @ $4.00
SGM: Wests Tigers Win + Dom Young Anytime Try + Samuela Fainu Anytime Try @ $10.30