NPC Best Bets | Round 5

NPC Best Bets | Round 5

Archie Wilson breaks down every game of Round 5 and provides his best betting plays of the weekend.

Southland
vs
Hawke’s Bay
7:10pm Thursday | Invercargill Rugby Park
Over 64.5 Total Points @ $1.90

Southland will face the tall task of taking on the best side in the competition, the Hawke’s Bay Magpies. The main silver lining for the Stags is that they are at their fortress in the deep south, the infamous Rugby Park.

I am not sold on them keeping it as close as they did against Waikato, but I could see them staying within arm’s length this evening.

Tips

Best: Over 64.5 Total Points @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Issac Hutchinson @ $1.78
Same Game Multi: Southland (+22.5), Bailyn Sullivan ATS & Over 64.5 Total Points @ $5.78

Auckland
vs
Bay Of Plenty
7:10pm Friday | Eden Park
Bay Of Plenty (-2.5) @ $1.87

Auckland desperately need a win this weekend, with their only victory of the season coming against a floundering Wellington side in round two. They run into a Bay of Plenty side who are unlucky to be below .500 on the table, but they have not always had flawless execution this season.

If the Steamers execute as I expect them to, I can see them coming away with a win in this one.

Tips

Best: Bay Of Plenty (-2.5) @ $1.87
Anytime Try Scorer: Reon Paul @ $1.78
Same Game Multi: Bay Of Plenty (-2.5), Reon Paul ATS & Over 61.5 Total Points @ $6.05

Taranaki
vs
Canterbury
2:05pm Saturday | Stadium Taranaki
Canterbury 13+ @ $2.30

Canterbury were flat-out embarrassed by Northland at home while defending the Ranfurly Shield, and I expect a major response come Saturday.

They are taking on a Taranaki side that have been underwhelming, to say the least, and will be facing the most fired-up Canterbury side we have seen all season.

Tips

Best: Canterbury 13+ @ $2.30
Anytime Try Scorer: Issac Hutchinson @ $1.82
Same Game Multi: Canterbury 13+, Issac Hutchinson ATS & Chay Fihaki ATS @ $5.23

Otago
vs
Waikato
5:05pm Saturday | Forsyth Barr Stadium
Best: Waikato (+6.5) @ $1.90

Otago vs Waikato might be the game of the round, with two of the better sides in the competition going head-to-head on Saturday evening. Personally, Otago have not lived up to expectations this year, and I think that has a lot to do with their game drivers.

If that group can figure things out, they will certainly be dangerous, but Waikato will be a tall task and one that could produce a one-score game come full time.

Tips

Best: Waikato (+6.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Nathan Stephens @ $1.78
Same Game Multi: Waikato (+6.5), Nathan Stephens ATS & Lucas Casey ATS @ $8.56

Manawatu
vs
North Harbour
7:10pm Saturday | Central Energy Trust Arena
North Harbour (-8.5) @ $1.90

Manawatū have been sneaky good over the past few weekends, keeping things close through the first three-quarters of a game but seemingly seeing matches unravel in the final quarter.

North Harbour are one of the best stories of this NPC season. They are fresh off a historic Battle of the Bridge win and are riding a wave of momentum they have not had in a very long time. It feels like a game where Harbour will be ready to grind the Turbos into the ground and follow a similar blueprint by running up the score in the final portion of the match.

Tips

Best: North Harbour (-8.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Rory Taylor @ $1.68
Same Game Multi: North Harbour (-8.5), Rory Taylor ATS & Taniela Filimone ATS @ $5.65

Wellington
vs
Counties Manukau
2:05pm Sunday | Hnry Stadium
Over 65.5 Total Points @ $1.92

The battle for the wooden spoon is upon us, and both fan bases are absolutely licking their lips. Wellington and Counties have shared the title of being the worst side in the competition through four weeks, but this weekend, one of them can separate themselves from that unwanted title.

I am personally not sure who that will be, but one thing that has been clear is that neither team has been keen on making tackles this season. If that trend continues, we could see plenty of points put up.

Tips

Best: Over 65.5 Total Points @ $1.92
Anytime Try Scorer: Rupeni Raviyawa @ $2.65
Same Game Multi: Over 65.5 Total Points, Rupeni Raviyawa ATS & James O’Reilly ATS @ $8.61

Northland
vs
Tasman
5:05pm Sunday | Semenoff Stadium
Northland 1 – 12 @ 2.90

We round out the weekend with a bang, as the best Northland side in recent memory are set to defend the Ranfurly Shield against a Mako side who have seemingly found an identity through their outside backs over the past couple of weeks.

The Taniwha come into this one as favourites, and based on what they showed against Canterbury, that is more than fair enough. But with the way Tasman have been rolling, it certainly will not be a walk in the park for the Shield holders.

Tips

Best: Northland 1 – 12 @ 2.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Terrell Peita @ $2.45
Same Game Multi: Northland (-6.5), Rob Rush ATS & Under 61.5 Total Points @ $9.62

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