Victor Wembanyama 30+ Points
Wemby already cleared this last game and dropped 29 in Game 2, so he’s right there every time. Since that second half of Game 2, it honestly looks like he’s solved this New York defense. Put up 54 while shooting 57 percent, and once he got going he didn’t slow down at all. This is the biggest game of the series so far, and it just feels like another statement night from him.
Josh Hart 8+ Rebounds
Hart is basically living around this number. He’s hit it in 2 of 3 this series and is averaging 10 boards a game. The one miss does not even worry me because he only played 18 minutes with foul trouble and still grabbed six. Over the playoffs he’s right around nine a night, and with his role and effort, you know the chances will be there again.
Mikal Bridges 15+ Points & Rebounds
This feels like a perfect bounce-back spot. Bridges only had 7 PRs last game, but before that he dropped 26 and had been clearing this line consistently, hitting 10 of 12 and averaging over 16. He’s also gone 3 for 3 against San Antonio in the regular season at this number. One bad game does not change the role, and the value here looks strong.
Stephon Castle 20+ Points & Rebounds
Castle has been super reliable in this series, clearing this in 2 of 3 and averaging close to 24 PRs. Even in the one miss he still put up 18, so he’s right on the edge every time. He’s hit this in 10 of his last 13 overall and is getting plenty of opportunity with around 15 shots a game and strong rebound chances. Feels like another solid spot for him to get there again.
Karl Anthony-Towns Over 14.5 Rebounds & Assists
KAT has been eating in this matchup against Wemby. He pulled down 12 and 13 rebounds in the first two games alone, and he’s basically the engine of this New York team right now. During their 13-game win streak, he’s only missed this line once. He’s been consistent, involved, and in a spot where he keeps producing.
Devin Vassell 20+ Points, Rebounds & Assists
Vassell has shown up in this series with two 20+ PRA games, including 28 in Game 2. He’s been active on the glass too, grabbing 9 boards in both games. The line is right around his output, but if that shooting efficiency carries over from Game 2, he should clear again. Add in the fact that he’s averaging 33 passes per game, and he’s constantly involved in the offence.
Jalen Brunson 25+ Points
Brunson has been a bit up and down this playoffs, but that’s exactly why this spot stands out. His last six games have bounced between 20, 30, 15, 30, 19, and 38. After a quieter Game 2, this feels like a bounce-back spot, especially back at MSG. He’s hit this line in 6 of 7 home playoff games, and this is the kind of stage he usually delivers on.
Landry Shamet Over 8.5 Points
Shamet has been on a heater from deep this postseason, shooting 27 of 48 from three, which is over 56%. That alone puts him in range of this line. He’s also playing solid minutes, over 30 in both games this series, and has scored 13 in each. With that volume and shooting, this number looks very reachable.
Stephon Castle 15+ Points
Castle is rolling right now. He hit this last game, that’s four straight, and he’s cleared it in all but three games this entire postseason while averaging just over 19 a night. New York were fine leaving him open in Game 1 and that should continue, which means more clean looks from three. Add in his ability to get downhill, and he’s got multiple ways to get there.
OG Anunoby 15+ Points
OG has been steady, clearing this in three straight and in all but three games this postseason. He started slow in Game 1 but picked it up late, and that kind of momentum usually carries forward. He’s been even better on the road too, averaging 22.5 per game and a perfect 6 for 6 hitting this number. He’s in a groove right now.
Victor Wembanyama to have 12+ Rebounds
Wemby grabbed this last game and has now done it three straight times against New York this season, plus five of the last six overall. He’s averaging nearly 14 boards in those matchups. The opportunity is clearly there too, with 22 rebound chances in Game 1 and almost 19 per game this postseason. Feels like he sets the tone early by owning the glass.
Josh Hart Over 12.5 Rebounds & Assists
Hart was everywhere in Game 1, pulling down 15 boards and finishing with 21 RA even in limited minutes because of fouls. He’s now cleared this in three straight and is averaging nearly 14 RA this postseason. He also showed this matchup suits him with a 17 RA game against San Antonio in the regular season. With 17 rebound chances and nine potential assists last game, the volume alone puts him right in position again.
Victor Wembanyama Over 38.5 Rebounds & Rebounds
Look… Wemby’s already done this in his last two games vs New York during the regular season, and he averaged 38.1 PRs in the WCF. Now it’s his FIRST Finals game, it’s at home… You already know he’s not going to waste any time. I’m expecting a statement game, just like he pulled in Game 1 of the WCF. He’s hit this in 4 of his last 5 vs New York, including two 60 PR games.
De’Aaron Fox Over 20.5 Points & Assists
Fox is putting up 22.4 PAs this playoffs and has covered this in 11 of 16 games. Three of those misses came while he was banged up, dealing with OKC’s defence, which is not exactly easy work. He’s gone 2/3 vs New York this season, and the one miss was a blowout. I’m not seeing that happening tonight. Feels like San Antonio are gonna lean on him heavily for ball handling and playmaking.
Mitchell Robinson to have 4+ Rebounds
We know about the pinky injury, but all reports say it’s minor, so I’m not too worried. He’s hit this in all but two playoff games, and against San Antonio, he’s dropped 15 and 5 in two regular season matchups. He’s an absolute rebound machine, averaging 0.45 per minute, which is literally the best in the league.