The Lightweight title is on the line again, with two-division champion Illia Topuria back in action this weekend, up against interim title holder Justin Gathje. Topuria is on an incredible 17-fight win streak and is 9-0 in the UFC across two divisions at the ripe age of 29, with 67% of his wins coming via KO/TKO, winning all his last three fights in that fashion against Charles Oliveria, Max Holloway, and Alexander Volkanovski.
Justin Gathje is on a two-fight win streak after becoming the Lightweight interim champion by defeating Paddy Pimblett via decision back in January. Gathje is 10-5 in the UFC and has lost by KO/TKO three times, with 60% of his wins in the UFC also coming from KO/TKOs. We are in for a banger. Gathje is a warrior, but at the age of 37 will likely struggle to keep up with the pace and power of Topuria. There is no doubt Gathje has the tenacity, grit, and is someone who relishes in a chaotic fight. Gathje will have the height advantage and a slight reach advantage in this matchup.
Bet: Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO @ $ 1.46
Alex Pereira makes the move up to heavyweight to take on former Heavyweight Champion Cyril Gane for the UFC Interim Heavyweight belt. He is 10-2 in the UFC and enters the division with a victory from his last Light Heavyweight Championship bout against Magomed Ankalaev, where he won via KO/TKO in Round 1. An important victory for Pereira to reclaim the belt from someone he had previously lost the belt to seven months prior in a unanimous decision loss. Alex was also on a five-fight win streak in the light heavyweight division prior to that fight. 80% of Alex “Poatan” Pereira’s wins in the UFC have come via KO/TKO.
Cyril Gane is also 10- 2 in the UFC, coming in off a No Contest result due to a disappointing eye poke against Tom Aspinall. Before that foul, he was on a two-fight win streak. Gane is a great heavyweight boxer who moves very quickly for his size and has a strong wrestling ability, with two wins via submission in the UFC.
Alex Pereira will be hoping to avoid the eye pokes of Ciryl Gane, as will most of the spectators, if Cyril can keep his fingers to himself when in close range, he should really have the advantage in this fight. He is a big body who has never been knocked out and will have the 2-inch reach advantage. This will be the first time Periera won’t have to worry about weight cuts for the first time in his career, but he will have to worry about the size of Gane. Periera has done a great job of packing on the pounds himself. It’s uncharted territory for Pereira, and the possibility of him becoming a three-division champ (and the first to ever do so) this weekend makes this matchup even more exciting.
Bet: Alex Pereira by Points or Ciryl Gane by Points @ $2.85
Aiemann Zahabi is in great form coming into this fight on a seven-fight win streak, with 75% of his wins coming via decision. Zahabi is good on his feet and has been able to absorb big hits in the past, as someone who has only been knocked out once in the UFC back in 2017. We have seen what Sean can do against a guy like Vera, who also ate hits for the majority of the 5 rounds, where O’Malley put on a clinic, including an insane knee to the jaw. O’Malley secured 232 strikes to Vera’s 89 over the 5 rounds. Vera was also Zahabi’s most recent fight, which ended in a split decision for Zahabi. Vera was able to secure a knockdown in this fight but was ultimately out-struck 56 – 81. If Sean is presented with a similar scenario to the one Vera had, you would think he can capitalise and secure a finish. MMA math suggests that this fight will end in a similar fashion, just as the Vera fight did, which perhaps hints at the current odds.
I think O’Malley offers more in the striking department, and not just in terms of output. He is more versatile with his attack, is accurate with his strikes, and has quick movements in an almost unorthodox fashion at times. He doesn’t have to worry about being wrestled in this fight, which is a big Achilles heel for him right now. If Zahabi chooses that method, he’s not exactly known for it, although he says he’s been wrestling for a long time, we don’t really see it inside the Octagon. He’ll need to slow the pace of O’Malley, so expect early leg kicks from Zahabi and counter opportunities. O’Malley is still trying to recover his ‘Suga Sean’ mojo since his double defeat to Dvalishvili, and took a step in the right direction with his decision win over Song Yadong back in Jan.
He is desperate for a KO victory on the White House lawn; he loves a highlight reel and seems genuinely annoyed he hasn’t had a finish since 2023. I think this is a good match-up for O’Malley, and he will look to utilise his dynamic attack and flair to get the finish.
Bet: Sean O’Malley by KO/TKO @ $2.85
Battle of the loudmouths and the heavy hitters. Hokit takes on Lewis, and as much as Hokit promotes fights as if he is in the UFC, he usually fronts up on the night too. He’s 3-0 in the UFC and has won two Bet by KO/TKO. His most recent win was a decision win over Curtis Blaydes. Derrick Lewis wants to bounce back after his loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta. From his 20 UFC wins, Lewis has won 16 by KO/TKO and was on a two-fight win streak prior to the Waldo loss, winning both by KO in the first and third rounds.
Hokit is in great form, but Lewis is the Veteran, he’s taken out a rising star before in the form of Tallison Teixeira in July last year. It just depends on what Derrick Lewis shows up. I give Lewis a puncher’s chance, considering he has the height and reach advantage; the odds for Hokit are just too short for me.
Bet: Derrick Lewis @ $4.10
Ruffy is 4-1 in the UFC and was on a seven-fight win streak across his pro MMA fights before his loss to BSD. Ruffy bounced back with a win over Fizev with a TKO in round 2. From his four UFC wins, he has won three by KO/TKO. Ruffy will have the height and reach advantage in this matchup and is cornered by Alexander Volkanovski.
Michael Chandler is on a three-fight losing streak, with losses to Paddy Pimblett, Charles Oliveria and Dustin Poirier. At the age of 40 and is now 2-5 in the UFC, a bit of a weird space to be in since the cancellation of his fight with McGregor back in 2024. One thing is for certain: we will get an entertaining fight. Chandler will look to end his losing streak on home soil, but ultimately might just be on the wrong side of another entertaining fight again.
Bet: Ruffy by KO/TKO @ $1.45
BO Nickal is 5-1 in the UFC and enters the Octagon on the back of winning his last UFC bout via TKO from a leg kick in the third round. Nickal is the more experienced wrestler in this match-up with Kyle Daukaus being more well-rounded. Daukaus is 4-4 in the UFC, on a two-fight win streak and is becoming quite the D’Arce choke specialist. He had an impressive win over Gerald Meerschaert, who is a submission specialist himself, with a first-round finish back in November. He offers more in the striking realm and has decent grappling. If he can stay on his feet, we could see a repeat of the De Ridder fight. Again, we see a big gap in the odds, and Daukaus could upset here with a finish, or Bo Nickal will control the mat for three rounds.
Bet: Kyle Daukaus by KO/TKO or Submission @ $5.00
Diego Lopes enters the octagon off the back of a loss via decision to Volkanovski in the title bout for the UFC Featherweight Championship. He is now 6-3 in the UFC, with three of his six wins coming via KO/TKO.
Steve Garcia is on a seven-fight win streak and is 8-2 in the UFC. From those 8 wins, he has won 7 via KO/TKO (88%). He has strong over hands with dangerous punching power. He will have the slight reach advantage in this matchup and is in great form coming into this fight.
Despite the good form, Diego lopes has the experience of tougher opponents and for more rounds, he has a strong chin as someone who has never been knocked out in the UFC, and it feels like that is Garcia’s key to victory, his punching power. He will have to be the first to do so against Lopes if he wants to win.
Bet: Diego Lopes by KO/TKO or Points @ $2.15