Craig Bellamy and the Melbourne Storm in Round 1 is usually as close to a sure thing as we’ll get in rugby league. That being said, I think Jason Ryles and the Parramatta Eels profile well to spring a huge upset on Thursday night.
Parramatta fought and scrapped their way through the ‘25 regular season while building some promising foundations in the process. Fast-forward to NRL 2026 and with a few shiny pieces added to those foundations, there’s some serious upside about the Eels this year.
A fit, creative forward pack and two triple threat (pass, run, kick) halves playing either edge is a lot for the defence to consider and while Melbourne are capable of locking this into a grind, I think the Eels attack has too many points in them here.
Tips
Parramatta Eels win @ $2.85
Bailey Simonsson Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.20
Easts kickoff a campaign filled with expectation and it’s a challenging road trip first-up. They travel to meet a Warriors attack missing both Luke Metcalf and Te Maire Martin but from what we saw in the trials, it’s New Zealand’s middle that will be their biggest strength to begin the year.
Wayde Egan was in sublime touch against Redcliffe two weeks ago, consistently fooling markers and folding the line in towards the ball before tipping short or throwing out the back. That’s where I’m expecting the Wahs to concentrate their efforts again here.
For the Roosters, Sam Walker and Angus Crichton were productive in the trials and can ask some questions of the unfamiliar Tannah Boyd / Ali Leiataua combination on New Zealand’s right edge.
Tips
Sydney Roosters 1-12 @ $2.70
Billy Smith Anytime Try Scorer @ $3.20
Brisbane kickoff their title defence at home on Friday night but I’m keen to be with this Panthers defensive juggernaut, first up.
Penrith dropped nine of their first 12 games last year almost entirely due to their inability to absorb early pressure. By midway through the season, they’d ironed out the kinks in what is still one of the best defensive systems in the NRL before then building on their attack.
Brisbane’s defence under Michael Maguire is by no means poor, but we know this Broncos side are at their best when on the offence.
In the grind of a season opener, I like Penrith to ambush Brisbane at home.
Tips
Penrith Panthers win @ $2.15
Brian To’o Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.20
Nicho Hynes will continue to be the face of this Cronulla Sharks side but Braydon Trindall can be their point-of-difference in NRL 2026.
Playing behind a stacked forward rotation and with Hynes constantly drawing attention from the defence, Trindall has the ballplaying smarts to execute on any half chances Cronulla earn with the ball here. Look for Hynes to have a running involvement on play four before Trindall pulls the trigger on the following tackle.
Without an established general play kicker to support them in yardage, the challenge for the Gold Coast here will be to stay in the grind against Cronulla’s monster pack.
Tips
Cronulla Sharks 13+ @ $2.05
Sione Katoa Anytime Try Scorer @ $1.60
I’m tipping Canberra for a big fade this year but I like their chances against a spluttering Sea Eagles outfit, first up.
South Sydney ran through Manly’s middle in the trials before finding points on the edges and that’s exactly how Ricky’s Raiders like to play; crash the middle, flood the ruck and then move the ball – in any manner necessary – to the spaces.
Ethan Sanders comes into his first full NRL season with plenty of pressure. If he can have enough high-percentage involvements to offset Canberra’s chaotic attack, I like The Milk to steal the two-points in a shoot-out.
Tips
Canberra Raiders win @ $1.87
Sebastian Kris Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.75
Savelio Tamale Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.05
As I South Sydney diehard, I’ve got high hopes for the Rabbitohs this season. As a rugby league analyst though, I’ve got high expectations for The Dolphins.
Isaiya Katoa holds the keys to a Redcliffe Premiership and has the cattle around him to give it a real shake this year. The Dolphins play a fast, physical brand of football while Katoa chips away at the opposition to find a weakness before hammering it home.
Almost everything points towards a Dolphins win at home here but the Wayne Bennett factor must be considered. This is the first time in a very long time that Souths have rolled out anything close to a full strength lineup.
With some confidence and a bit of luck, I like the Bunnies to bounce back.
Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs win @ $1.95
Campbell Graham Anytime Try Scorer @ $2.35
Jack Wighton Anytime Try Scorer @ $3.30