It’s the final major of the year, and we’re heading to Northern Ireland.
Royal Portrush Golf Club will host the 153rd Open. It took 68 years for The Open to return to Northern Ireland, but it was worth the wait because when Royal Portrush hosted The Open in 2019, home favourite Shane Lowry took home the Claret Jug.
Now we’re heading back to the County Antrim coast, where the world’s best will try their luck at the 7,381 yard, par 71 course.
With minimal rain in the area in the lead up to the tournament and looking at the forecast for the week ahead, we’re expecting the course to play firm and fast.
Much like the US Open, but we all know the rain played a huge factor at Oakmont. Whoever comes out on top this weekend will have put together a short game masterclass.
With that in mind, I thought we’d take a look at some of the top contenders before launching into my best bets for the tournament.
The world number one, Scottie Scheffler finished inside the top 10 in Scotland last week but looked out of touch on the greens. He has a best finish of seventh in his four Open starts, showing he’s yet to master links golf.
Rory McIlroy is pushing Scottie as the tournament favourite, but after completing the career Grand Slam, he’d hit a slump in form. However, after a break, he returned to Europe and looked to be locked in and securing second at the Genesis Scottish Open last weekend.
Portrush is Rory’s hometown and aside from getting his green jacket, this will be one tournament he’d love to win. He missed the cut here in 2019 so this year brings extra pressure.
Jon Rahm, like all the other LIV players, arrives with no links preparation. He is trending nicely in majors this season and has seen flashes of success in The Open before. He finished 11th at Portrush in 2019.
Xander hasn’t been at the top of his game since he returned from injury earlier this year, but he hasn’t been bad either. Finishing 8th, 28th and 12th in the three majors so far this season, he then equalled his season best of 8th at the Genesis Scottish Open last weekend – a perfect warm-up for his return to defend the Claret Jug.
He’s got his driver behaving again, which is a great sign, and his short game is starting to come together. 8th at Oakmont doesn’t happen without a good short game, and he was ranked 10th on the greens during his last start.
Consistency at The Open is key, and that’s what Xander does, finishing in the top 20 on five consecutive occasions at this tournament. His previous best was a second-place finish in 2018 before he went on to win at Royal Troon last year.
Out of the top 10 favoured to win this week, he’s the clear value play for me.
When trying to find our top performers for this weekend, it’s important to look at the correlating events and what form these players are taking into links golf.
Looking at the 2024 Royal Troon results as well as the 2021 edition at Royal St George’s.
Lowry finished T6 at Royal Troon at four under par and T12 at Royal St George’s at six under par. Couple that with his win at Portrush in 2019, and you’re seeing plenty of ticks go Shane Lowry’s way.
It’s a course that complements Lowry’s skill set, so don’t be surprised to see him in the mix on Sunday.
A niche market here, which includes our 2025 US Open winner, JJ Spaun and the Genesis Scottish Open winner Chris Gotterup.
Harry Hall gets the nod over the rest in just his third major appearance. He impressed in his last major start at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, finishing T19. Since then, he’s not found himself outside of the top 25.
I’m backing a man who’s on a heater at the moment, who also grew up on link-style courses, which should give him an advantage over the other debutants.
The worry for me here is Wyndham’s approach play. Losing strokes in that part of his game in seven of his last eight starts. Not a trend you want to have next your name heading into The Open Championship.
Precision is vital at Portrush, and the big stick hasn’t been kind to him for most of the year.
His form simply won’t cut it this weekend, and I expect Wyndham to have the weekend off.
Shane Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood finished first and second here in 2019, and both look likely to have a say in how this 153rd Open Championship will play out.
Robert MacIntyre came as close as he’s ever been to capturing a major with a second place finish at Oakmont.
When the going gets tough, this is a trio you’ll want to keep your eye on.
Value SGM: Sam Burns, Shane Lowry & Ryan Fox All Top 20 @ $30.02 (Odds Boost)