The decider is here!
Origin III is heading to Accor Stadium in what is going to be an electric night of rugby league.
With the series all square after Queensland brushed off the underdog status in Game II and pulled off a 26-24 win, they now head into enemy territory to try and win back the shield.
After dominating three of the four halves played, it all comes down to this for the Blues. They’ve won four of the past six games at Accor Stadium and will be looking to make home advantage count.
With that being said, let’s get into the best bets.
Under 42.5 Total Points @ $1.90
Game II may have cleared this margin by 10 points, but that shouldn’t deter punters from backing the under in Game III.
In fact, in each of the last five Origin series, the final game has gone under this total each time.
20-14 to the Maroons in 2020, 20-18 to the Maroons in 2021, 22-12 to the Maroons in 2022, 24-10 to the Blues in 2023 and 14-4 to the Blues in 2024.
Slater has made a few changes to his side, but the Blues have kept the same blueprint. Both sides will look to start strong, and I don’t see either side running away with it early doors. This should lean very well into a play on the unders.
Brian To’o / New South Wales 1-12 Double @ $4.60
The Blues may be feeling it after Game II, but they are the far superior team, and I expect them to turn up tonight and right their wrongs.
Queensland will undoubtedly dig deep and put up a fight, which is why I see this being a close decider. In an emotionally charged game where tensions are high, we will see some mistakes as well as points being taken when on offer.
All of these should keep it close, and for some value on it, I’m backing Bizza to touchdown in the corner. After a single try in the first game, he scored three in Game II, and he’s my best to score a try tonight once again.
Gehamat Shibasaki / Latrell Mitchell to have 2+ Tries Combined @ $4.75
We all know how much of an animal Latrell Mitchell is in the Origin arena. However, he’s been kept relatively quiet this series, only showing flashes of brilliance here or there. There aren’t too many games where Trell is quiet and not having the impact he’s known for in back-to-back games is very uncharacteristic.
I’m expecting him to leave his mark on this game and put on a performance for the home crowd.
Then we move the debutant, Gehamat Shibasaki. The 26-year-old has taken the long way to earn his Maroons jersey, but he seems to be exactly where he belongs.
He’s scored 12 tries in 15 appearances for the Broncos this year, becoming an absolute machine. He won’t stop at just one try either. He loves going on and scoring a double or even a hat-trick.
Even if Trell doesn’t score, I think this is good enough value with the hope that Shibasaki can get a double on debut.
I’m doubling down on NSW tonight. I do think they’re the better side and will win in a close one. But I also know that if they click, they could run away with it and win by 13+.
So, I’ve taken the alternative handicap of -2.5 and paired it with a Bizza anytime as well as the debutant, Shibasake to score at anytime which is where we’ll find out value.
- New South Wales -2.5
- Under 48.5 Total Points
- Brian To’o Anytime Try Scorer
- Gehamat Shibasaki Anytime Try Scorer
SGM: $20.89
Angus Crichton is the second favourite in the betting markets for Blues players to take home the Wally Lewis medal. So, it shocked me to find him on the second page at $26 for man of the match tonight.
I think this is great value for someone who has the impact that Crichton can have on a match.
Cleary, despite not being a standout all series is always a likely option to win the Wally Lewis medal should the Blues come out on top.
If the Blues do win tonight, Cleary will have played a vital role.