Last week’s loss to the Crusaders wasn’t too much of a surprise considering the XV they put out and substitutions made during the game.
The Hurricanes host the Brumbies and are heavy favourites.
Partially because the Brumbies were beaten at home last week against Moana Pasifika. They’ve been very disappointing in the back half of this season.
They do have a good history at tipping up the ‘Canes when it comes to finals time. However, the only NZ side they couldn’t crack this year was the Hurricanes.
Back to full strength, infront of a home crowd I don’t expect the home side to change anything about the way they’re playing their rugby.
The scoreline read 45-12 in favour of the Hurricanes when they met during Super Round, and I’m expecting something similar once again.
Wellington’s back three have been try scoring machines this year and like I said above, I do not expect anything to change. The bookies have put together a betcha boost that caught my eye: Kini Naholo & Josh Moorby Both Anytime Try Scorers boosted to $3.20
Best: Hurricanes -17.5 @ $1.90
Next: Kini Naholo & Josh Moorby Both Anytime Try Scorers @ $3.20
Try Scorer: Du’Plessis Kirifi @ $3.10
It’s a NZ derby for the second Qualifying Final, and it’s down in Christchurch but the Crusaders will be without a couple of key players, including Fletcher Newell up front.
The Blues will be hoping to replicate their upset from last year and there’s no doubt they have the quality in their side to do so.
Finals footy is different to regular season, of course. However, there is no Beauden Barrett lining up. The key for the Blues is their start.
If they start well, this could become a tight game. If they don’t… then I don’t have a lot of hope.
As for the Crusaders, they have hit top gear at the right time and will be tough to beat at home. The -8.5 is a ask, but if they can keep the Blues at bay in the first half, I can see them running away with it in the second half.
There’s a few players in fine form for the men in red and black but it’s to look past Sevu Reec and Leicester Fainga’anuku.
Best: Crusaders 13+ @ $2.25
Next: Sevu Reece 1st, 2nd OR 3rd Try Scorer & Crusaders Win @ $4.50 (betcha boost)
Try Scorer: Leicester Fainga’anuku @ $2.10
The Reds are going to have to play near-perfect rugby to really push the Chiefs in Hamilton. There’s no sugarcoating that, but don’t rule them out of keeping this one respectable.
For the most part of the season, they’ve been a quality side, but that 20-minute dip where things fall apart a bit has hurt them.
There’s a clear class gap between the Kiwi sides and the Aussie teams. However, the Reds aren’t hopeless here. If they start fast and land a few early punches, suddenly the Chiefs feel a bit of pressure and that +15.5 starts looking very juicy.
Under 57.5 points looks to be the play as well. Conditions will be soggy in Hamilton, with a stack of rain coming this week, and it could make conditions tough to score tries.
One man who will benefit from the conditions is Samisoni Taukei’aho. Five in his last five, and if the rain does come, expect the game to be played through the middle of the park, milking penalties and lineout drives.
Best: Reds +15.5 @ $1.90
Next: Chiefs 1-12 & Under 57.5 Points – SGM @ $4.59
Try Scorer: Samisoni Taukei’aho @ $1.83