Oscar Pannifex breaks down every game of Round 14 and provides his best betting plays of the weekend.
The injuries have returned for South Sydney over the past month and while this is far from the Bunnies best 17 on paper, I like the value in them to keep this close.
Jamal Fogarty’s boot has been integral to Manly’s success of late but between Jye Gray, Campbell Graham and Edward Kosi, Souths profile well to carry out of yardage, win the territorial battle and set up for a shot through Cody Walker.
If there’s a spot in the Sea Eagles system to target right now, it’s their right edge – directly opposite Walker here.
Tips
Best: Rabbitohs (+4.5) @ $1.83
Anytime Try Scorers: Alex Johnston @ $1.58 & Tallis Duncan @ $3.25
Same Game Multi: Rabbitohs (+4.5) + Alex Johnston Anytime Try + Tallis Duncan Anytime Try @ $6.75
Melbourne’s edge defence last week was superb to force Easts into numerous errors as they tried to shift the ball. Jahrome Hughes and Cameron Munster in particular led the linespeed on either tram line to limit the time and space of the Roosters ballplayers in attack.
I’m not sure how well that approach profiles against a Knights attack that does a good job of straightening up to put Kalyn Ponga into positive involvements out wide. If Newcastle can continue to do the lead up work right, I think Ponga can pick apart either centre-wing combination for the Storm here.
Tips
Best: Knights @ $2.35
Anytime Try Scorers: Greg Marzhew @ $1.73 & Dominic Young @ $1.75
Same Game Multi: Knights + Greg Marzhew Anytime Try + Dominic Young Anytime Try @ $5.04
Canberra wound back the clock last week to produce a number of unlikely and unrepeatedable scoring actions. They won’t come off every time, but for Hudson Young to create two tries from dummy-half down a 5-metre short side is testament to the Raiders willingness to score any way and from anywhere.
Assuming a response from the Chooks here though after disappointing against Melbourne last week, I can’t back Canberra for the upset.
There’s too much class in this Easts lineup to not capitalise on the spaces around Daine Laurie defending out wide where he was spotted up by Redcliffe in NRL Round 12.
Tips
Best: Roosters 13+ @ $3.25
Anytime Try Scorers: Robert Toia @ $2.45 & Cody Ramsey @ $1.87
Same Game Multi: Roosters 13+ + Robert Toia Anytime Try + Cody Ramsey Anytime Try @ $8.84
Redcliffe are coming good at the right time and I’m keen to follow them in. The influence of Jeremy Marshall-King around the ruck has been obvious since his return from injury and Isaiya Katoa in particular is benefiting from the extra time his hooker buys him on the ball.
North Queensland didn’t show up in Canberra last week and we can expect a response from them early, but their edge defence could struggle against the Dolphins expansive attack.
Tips
Best: Dolphins @ $1.60
Anytime Try Scorers: Herbie Farnworth @ $1.91 & Jamayne Isaako @ $1.64
Same Game Multi: Dolphins + Herbie Farnworth Anytime Try + Jamayne Isaako Anytime Try @ $4.05
The pressure gauge is rising in Brisbane but we should know by now that this is exactly when Madge does his best work.
I like the Broncos to respond this week but I don’t think it will be pretty.
With Pat Carrigan out and two genuine halfbacks in the spine, it looks like Brisbane are going all in on Reece Walsh to pull the triggers on either edge. Kotoni Staggs can be his play-to target down that right side, either throwing long or kicking in behind.
Tips
Best: Broncos @ $1.42
Anytime Try Scorer: Kotoni Staggs @ $2.10
Same Game Multi: Broncos + Kotoni Staggs Anytime Try @ $2.61
Wests welcomed back some key contributors last week with Jarome Luai, Jahream Bula & Api Koroisau unsurprisingly proving the difference. Their attack still has a few gears to go with Adam Doueihi yet to return but the defensive issues still remain around the ruck and down their left edge in particular.
Look for Nathan Cleary to have a field day tying up Luai on the tram line and creating space for the Panthers right edge outside him.
Tips
Best: Panthers @ $1.22
Anytime Try Scorers: Brian To’o @ $1.62 & Dylan Edwards @ $2.15
Same Game Multi: Panthers + Brian To’o Anytime Try + Dylan Edwards Anytime Try @ $3.85
An upset win over the defending premiers is the best evidence that St George’s defensive improvements over the past month have been genuine. Their young backrowers in particular work exceptionally hard from the inside to release their edges in defence but I think Briton Nikora and the Sharks attack can make them pay back on the inside here.
Wait for some fatigue to creep into St George’s middle and we might see Cronulla’s bigger bodies start to make inroads around the ruck. From there, Nikora profiles well to punish any overchasing forwards working hard from the inside.
Tips
Best: Sharks @ $1.30
Anytime Try Scorer: Briton Nikora @ $2.75
Same Game Multi: Sharks + Briton Nikora Anytime Try @ $3.20
Parramatta continue to impress despite a horror injury toll but I’m not sure they can get up again for this one after a heartbreaker last week vs Newcastle.
The pressure is all on the Bulldogs coming into this game and while the spaces around Lachie Galvin and Stephen Crichton remain a spot for attacking teams, I like Canterbury to sneak home in a must-win game before the bye.
The Eels running spine can have some joy hitting the Bulldogs edges but the kicking game of Galvin and Matt Burton in yardage can be the difference.
Tips
Best: Bulldogs @ $1.52
Anytime Try Scorer: Josh Addo-Carr @ $1.68
Same Game Multi: Bulldogs + Josh Addo-Carr Anytime Try @ $3.04