Lots of big favourites this week as we head to Macao for this weekend’s UFC Fight Night. Will the favourites deliver? Here are our best bets as we try to find some value.
Both Song Yadong and Deiveson Figueiredo will be looking to cut their losses from UFC 324 and bounce back this week with both fighters losing their respective fights by decision back in Jan. Yadong losing to Sean O’Malley and Figueiredo losing to Umar Nurmagomedov.
Both fighters lost to Petr Yan in 2024, and both have lost to Sandhagen. Both fighters started their UFC journey in 2017, but Figueredo has been the more active of the two with 21 (14-6-1) fights under his belt to Yadong’s 16 (11-4-1). From his 14 UFC wins, Figi has won 4 by KO, 4 by Submission, and 6 via decision. Yadong has won 5 via KO/TKO and 5 via decision, with one submission victory in his UFC debut back in 2017.
Yadong is ten years younger than the ex-champ Figueiredo and will have the height advantage in this fight. Figueredo has lost three of his last four fights, Yadong winning three of his last five. Yadong is a warrior who can take a serious hit and has strong takedown defence. Yadong has won three of his last three five-round fights, and I think he should excel over the 5 rounds against Figueiredo, who is no longer at the top of his game.
Bet: Yadong KO/TKO or Points @ $1.22
Zhang Mingyang is 3-1 in the UFC. All three of his wins have come via KO/TKO in the first round. He is coming in off a loss to Johnny Walker in the second round after a nasty leg kick ultimately ended his win streak.
Alonzo is 10-6 in the UFC and is coming in off a loss to Oezdemir via KO/TKO in the first round, 67% of his losses in the UFC have come from KO/TKO’s. I’m not sure at the ripe age of 38 that Alonzo will out-punch Zhang on the feet. Something he was previously known for with his raw power, but of late has been on the receiving end. He could utilise his leg kicks, which looks to be a potential weakness for Zhang and was the reason Walker was so successful against him, but even then, Alonzo hasn’t used those kicks much at all recently, opting to rely on his fists. There is also an 11-year age gap, with Zhang only 27, which seems like he will have the power and pace of this matchup, and if it is just a fist fight, I see Zhang being the better off.
Bet: Zhang Mingyang by KO/TKO @ $ 1.70
Two big Heavyweight hitters in Pavlovich and Teixeira go head-to-head this Sunday. Pavlovich is on a two-fight win streak, defeating Cortes-Acosta and Rozenstruik by decision. Teixeira bounced back from the TKO loss to Derrick Lewis with a lacklustre decision win over Tai Tuivasa, which left a lot to be desired from either fighter. Pavlovich has ultimately faced the tougher opposition, has more experience, and a better gas tank. Teixeira has his moments of knockout power, winning 7 of his 9 pro MMA fights by KO/TKO. Pavlovich has won his last two fights by decision, but from his 8 UFC wins, he has won 6 via KO/TKO, all within the first round.
Bet: Sergei Pavlovich to Win in Round 1 or 2 @ $1.55
Kai Asakura is in search of his first UFC win and is now 0-2, after successive submission losses to Alexandre Pantoja and Tim Elliot. Cameron Smotherman is also on a two-fight losing streak, losing both by decision and is now 1-2 in the UFC.
Since coming to the UFC, Kai was thrown right into a championship bout against Pantoja and has clearly struggled in the two grappling matchups. What we know of is Kai’s ability to dominate on the feet with his striking ability and strong record at Rizin, but he has not been able to convert into the UFC cage, yet. Kai needs to bounce back big time after that Tim Elliot loss if there is any hope of redeeming his name as a former two-time champion of Rizin.
With all three of Smotherman’s UFC fights ending in decision, with one submission victory in his pro MMA career of 18 fights, Smotherman does very little smothering, which signals to me the UFC are trying their best to give Kai his first UFC win and rebuild his confidence with a striking matchup where he shouldn’t be hindered by much wrestling at all.
Bet: Kai Asakura @ $1.32
Jake Matthews (15-8 in the UFC) is looking to bounce back after the controversial Magney fight. Carlston Harris has stepped in on short notice, replacing Muslim Salikohv due to an elbow injury. Jake was on a three-fight win streak prior to the Magney fight, where Carlston is on a two-fight losing streak, having lost both by KO/TKO, and is now 4-2 in the UFC. Carlston is a heavy hitter, whereas Jake is more well-rounded and will look to take the fight to the ground to nullify any calculated shots from Carlston. Notably, 87% of Jake’s wins have come via Submission or Decision.
Bet: Jake Matthews by submission or points @ $ 1.90
Alex Perez enters the Octagon after a Round 1 TKO victory over Charles Johnson back in Jan, bouncing back from successive losses, now 8-6 in the UFC with 50% of his wins via KO/TKO.
Su Mudaerji is on a three-fight win streak, winning all three via decision and is 6-4 in the UFC. Su Mudaerji will have the height and reach advantage in this matchup, with a two-inch height advantage and 17cm reach advantage. He is tall, long, and lanky. Su will look to utilise that reach advantage and has decent Takedown defence. Where Su has the reach, Perez has the aggression, but will he come hot out of the gate as he did against Johnson in Jan? Someone who Su has previously lost to (decision). Su has never been knocked out, and Perez will need to apply pressure with the ability to take the fight to the ground; otherwise, Su will stabilise the fight and keep Perez at an arm’s length. A real toss-up this one.
Bet: Double Chance II – Perez by KO/TKO or Su Madejji by points. @ $2.55
Luis Gurule has been called into the octagon to face Rei Tsuruya just TWO WEEKS after his victory over Daniel Barez, with Jesus Aguilar out with injury (who Luis has lost to previously).
Rei Tsuruya is 10-1, but 1-1 in the UFC, with both results ending by decision. His loss came to none other than current champion Joshua Van. Great experience to learn from. From his 10 pro MMA fights, he has 8 finishes, 4 via KO and 4 via submission, someone who always looks for the finish.
Gurule is 1-3 in the UFC, losing twice via decision. Gurule is an entertainer with an 11-3 pro MMA record and has 9 years on Tsuruya with good strike output and decent wrestling.
Rey will have the height advantage and a 10cm reach advantage and should look to utilise that gap! Four of the last five fights for Gurule have ended by decision.
Bet: Rei Tsuruya @ $ 1.45 by submission or decision