NRL Best Bets | Round 23

NRL Best Bets | Round 23

Melbourne Storm
vs
Brisbane Broncos
9:50pm, Thursday | AAMI Park, Melbourne
Tips: Brisbane Broncos 1-12, Deine Mariner try 

Fresh off a training run against South Sydney, this will give us a better idea of Brisbane’s credentials in the approaching finals series. They’ve got the attack to outscore anyone but we haven’t always seen this Broncos side look comfortable in the grind – something Melbourne excel at.  

The Storm worked it off their own line for the best part of 40 minutes last week before coming home stronger against Parramatta. They’ll look to do the same to Brisbane here, unless the Broncos can turn enough early field position into points. 

Newcastle Knights
vs
Penrith Panthers
8:00pm, Friday | McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Tips: Penrith Panthers 13+ , Thomas Jenkins 2+ tries 

Nathan Cleary’s ridiculous two-point field goal to level the scores last week will be replayed for the rest of the year. His ability to expose a Titans player defending out of position in the centres was even more impressive, though. It took Penrith just three tackles to isolate Jacob Alick-Weinke in the centres and produce a match winning moment.  

Newcastle continue to defend well despite the pressure their poor attack creates. Even still, this feels like it could be a tune-up game for the Panthers growing attack. 

Canberra Raiders
vs
Manly Sea Eagles
10:00pm, Friday | GIO Stadium, Canberra
Tips: Canberra Raiders (-6.5) line, Sebastian Kris try, Xavier Savage 2+ tries  

Canberra beat themselves last week against St George and we can expect a response here. The best parts of the Raiders game comes in yardage around the ruck; dynamic, mobile ball runners with offload ability can disrupt the defence and create cues for Jamal Fogarty & Co to react to.   

It spells danger for a Sea Eagles pack that is falling away late in halves once fatigue sets in. Look for Canberra to play the long game and find points in the back end of each half.  

St George Illawarra Dragons
vs
Cronulla Sharks
5:00pm, Saturday | Jubilee Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Cronulla Sharks (-5.5) line, Briton Nikora try, Nicho Hynes try 

Cronulla have upped the tempo over the past few weeks to play an aggressive, direct brand of football. It’s seeing them bend the line first and earn the right to shift the ball in attack, and once they do the points are coming.  

St George impressed to out-grind Canberra last week but the Raiders did a lot wrong themselves. Whether it’s a tight one here or a shoot-out, I like the Sharks to continue their winning form.  

Dolphins
vs
Sydney Roosters
7:30pm, Saturday | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Tips: Sydney Roosters win, Robert Toia try, James Tedesco try 

Easts have kicked into a new gear with Sam Walker re-introduced to their attack. His short kicking game in particular is proving a nightmare for defending teams inside-twenty while both he and Hugo Savalo repeatedly kick the Roosters out of trouble in yardage.  

Redcliffe got away with one last week but their middle will be tested by James Tedesco and Connor Watson here. If Easts can drag the Dolphins into deep water and put fatigue into their pieced-together pack, the points will follow. Herbie Farnworth is a huge loss and the Roosters can make a target of his vacated left edge.  

Canterbury Bulldogs
vs
New Zealand Warriors
9:35pm, Saturday | Accor Stadium, Sydney
Tips: New Zealand Warriors (+8.5) line, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak try 

The doubters are coming thick and fast but I’m keen to keep the faith with Andrew Webster’s Warriors. They are still one of the most resilient teams under pressure and continue to show a willingness to stick to the gameplan. Tannah Boyd had some encouraging moments last week on the ball while his attacking kicks are quickly becoming a repeatable action for the Warriors good-ball attack.  

Canterbury will provide a stern test but I like New Zealand to keep it close.  

Gold Coast Titans
vs
South Sydney Rabbitohs
4:00pm, Sunday | Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Tips: South Sydney Rabbitohs (+7.5) line, Jayden Campbell try, Alex Johnston try 

Latrell Mitchell looms in the reserves and his inclusion can completely change the makeup of this game. If Mitchell plays, Alex Johnston immediately becomes an appealing try scorer pick on the end of that signature long ball.  

It’s the Titans with the better recent form, though. Jayden Campbell personifies the Gold Coast’s high risk attack and can have a field day running at Souths patched together edges.  

Parramatta Eels
vs
North Queensland Cowboys
6:05pm, Sunday | CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Tips: North Queensland Cowboys (+4.5) line, Josh Addo-Carr try  

Two clubs on very different trajectories right now makes for an interesting matchup.  

Parramatta’s roster mightn’t boast the same quality as North Queensland’s, but Jason Ryles has his men doubling down on all the key little effort areas. With Mitch Moses now ending their sets smartly with his boots, it’s allowing the Eels to build and apply pressure in the grind – something the Cowboys have struggled with all year.  

There’s so many points in the Cowboys attack that it might just be enough here, but it’s not an approach that leads to finals footy.