NRL Best Bets | Round 22

NRL Best Bets | Round 22

Parramatta Eels
vs
Melbourne Storm
9:50pm, Thursday | CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Melbourne Storm (-10.5) line, Eli Katoa try 

Harry Grant made a statement last week with Melbourne’s spine decimated around him. With four try involvements from four quick rucks, Grant reminded the NRL of his qualities out of dummy-half.  

Parramatta’s improvements this year have been a joy to watch. Their middle in particular has tightened up to address the revolving door looks they gifted teams to begin the season. That being said, it’s undoubtedly where the Storm will look to threaten inside-twenty.  

New Zealand Warriors
vs
Dolphins
8:00pm, Friday | Go Media Stadium, Auckland
Tips: The Dolphins (-3.5) line, Jake Averillo try 

A number of key team list changes have completely changed the dynamic of this game.  

James Fisher-Harris, Wayde Egan and Chanel Harris-Tavita are huge outs for a Warriors side whose greatest qualities this year have been their consistency and resilience. With so much disruption in a system already adjusting to life without Luke Metcalf, Redcliffe have got New Zealand at as good a time as any.  

Comparatively, Kodi Nikorima, Mark Nicholls and Felise Kaufusi are big inclusions for a Dolphins side that has figured out what works for them this season. Redcliffe might have too many points in them here.   

Brisbane Broncos
vs
South Sydney Rabbitohs
10:00pm, Friday | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Tips: Brisbane Broncos 13+ , Ezra Mam try, Ben Hunt try, Billy Walters try 

South Sydney impressed to deny Cronulla on multiple occasions last week. To concede just 14 points with more than 60 tackles inside-twenty is a testament to the Rabbitohs effort under pressure. With another two key players missing this week (Jack Wighton, Junior Tatola) though, it’s difficult to see Souths matching Brisbane through the middle.  

Look for the Broncos to play a power game from kickoff, put fatigue into Souths pack and then find points late in each half.  

Gold Coast Titans
vs
Penrith Panthers
5:00pm, Saturday | Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Tips: Penrith Panthers 13+ , Luke Garner try, Casey McLean try

The Gold Coast Titans got up for Kieran Foran’s final game on home soil, completing at over 90% to dominate possession and field position against New Zealand. A Titans attack featuring AJ Brimson and Jayden Campbell will always be hard to handle with that much ball.  

The challenge now is to back it up against a Panthers side that plays the long game better than any team in the NRL. It’s death by a thousand cuts for Nathan Cleary and the Panthers attack who profile well against the Titans inconsistent edge defensive units.  

St George Illawarra Dragons
vs
Canberra Raiders
7:30pm, Saturday | WIN Stadium, Wollongong
Tips: Canberra Raiders (-7.5) line, Kaeo Weekes try, Zac Hoskings try 

Canberra continue to post big score lines, making the most of lesser opposition once fatigue sets in. It’s not a coincidence the Raiders are making a habit of scoring tries on the buzzer.  

Their willingness to attack from anywhere on the field and generate second-phase play profiles nicely against a Dragons pack stacked with big, immobile bodies. If Canberra can force tired forwards into repeat efforts in defence, the spaces will open up for the likes of Kaeo Weekes in support.  

Manly Sea Eagles
vs
Sydney Roosters
9:35pm, Saturday | 4 Pines Park, Sydney
Tips: Sydney Roosters 1-12, Robert Toia try, Mark Nawaqanitawase try 

Easts were only denied by a Harry Grant masterclass last week. Otherwise, the addition of Sam Walker’s kicking game in particular is seeing the Roosters capitalise on most of the attacking field position they earn within games. Their leaky ruck defence remains an issue but it’s not an area the Sea Eagles have effectively targeted this year.  

Haumole Olakau’atu is a big loss for a Manly side clinging to finals hopes. In what feels like a must win game, I’m keen to be with the Chooks in a grind.  

Wests Tigers
vs
Canterbury Bulldogs
4:00pm, Sunday | CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 13+ , Viliame Kikau try, Jethro Rinakama try 

Lachlan Galvin will dominate the narrative of this one on the back of two impressive starting halfback performances. Galvin’s tendency to play on the ball up and down the field is a nice look for a Bulldogs attack that can now afford to let Matt Burton drift and pick his moments.  

While Wests are trending in the right direction, they are still developing in all the little areas that Canterbury do so well. The spaces around Latu Fainu can be a target for the Bulldogs attack.  

Cronulla Sharks
vs
North Queensland Cowboys
6:05pm, Sunday | Sharks Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Cronulla Sharks (-7.5) line, Ronaldo Mulitalo 2+ tries 

The Sharks will know they got away with one last week but how they respond here will be telling for their finals chances. They’ve got the pack to run through North Queensland’s middle but their execution and decision making, particularly on fifth tackle, is preventing the Sharks from applying and capitalising on pressure in games.  

If Cronulla can play the long game, kick to corners and put fatigue into the Cowboys early, they can avoid going with Tom Dearden and Scott Drinkwater in a shootout.