It’s difficult to see this playing out as anything other than a Melbourne Storm whitewash.
Craig Bellamy rarely loses two in a row while South Sydney are on their last legs and limping towards Mad Monday. We’ve seen some encouraging responses from the Rabbitohs in the back end of the season but the reality of missing more than 10 first-team players is taking its toll. With a fairly unproductive back five and without an established fifth tackle kicker, Souths are struggling in the yardage battle. Playing under pressure and fatigue, their middle is consistently collapsing in defence which then leaves their edges vulnerable and isolated.
Given how Melbourne have attacked in yardage over the past month, it spells danger for one of the least mobile defensive centre pairings in the competition. I’m expecting the Storm to isolate the speed of Ryan Papenhuyzen or Jahrome Hughes onto either Taane Milne or Richie Kennar a few times in this one.
The Gold Coast Titans have figured out what works for them this year and it’s seen them make considerable improvements on both sides of the ball.
It took a while for Des Hasler to find a winning formula but the Titans are reaping the benefits of team continuity and cohesion right now. With Kieran Foran playing conductor from first receiver, we’re seeing some likely combinations form around Jayden Campbell and David Fifita on the left edge while Keaon Kini continues to impress on the right.
Cronulla, on the other hand, are still adjusting with Nicho Hynes (and now Brayden Trindall) sidelined. We said the Sharks were presenting a more balanced – and more threatening – attack to begin the season but there are a lot of moving parts for Craig Fitzgibbon to manage at the moment.
Happy to back the current form here and keep the Titans slim finals hopes alive. Assuming he defends on Cronulla’s left edge, the spaces around Brailey at three-man will likely be a target for the Gold Coast attack.
Nathan Cleary’s form has been nothing short of ridiculous since returning from injury three weeks ago.
Penrith will always dominate possession and field position but Cleary’s ruthless efficiency in good-ball over the past month is a new look for the Panthers attack. He’s still playing well ahead of time to create the looks he wants in the defensive line, but his eagerness to run the ball himself is ominous with finals approaching.
Parramatta found a spark last week and won the physical battle against a poor Warriors side. Brendan Hands had some smart involvements from dummy-half before Dylan Brown, Daejarn Asi and Clint Gutherson executed on the edges.
New Zealand made the Eels attack look good in NRL Round 22 but the reality is Penrith are a much different proposition this week. No team in the NRL applies pressure like the Panthers and I can’t see the Eels enjoying as many positive looks in attack again this week – particularly without the kicking game of Mitch Moses to keep them in the yardage battle.
Canberra almost did enough last week against a desperate and resilient Bulldogs defensive outfit. Jamal Fogarty is adding some polish to the Raiders end of sets, nicely complementing a pack that works hard and loves the grind. Canberra can usually be relied upon to keep themselves in the contest and they have enough game breakers along a backline featuring Jordan Rapana, Matt Timoko, Ethan Strange and Xavier Savage to be a puncher’s chance at the death.
I love the look of Manly’s roster this week though; particularly the inclusion of Lachlan Croker.
The Sea Eagles enjoy a variety of genuine avenues to the try line this season. Daly Cherry-Evans and Haumole Olakau’atu’ have a toolbox of attacking shapes to choose from on the right edge while Jake Trbojevic continues to put Luke Brooks into positive involvements on the left. Add Tom Trbojevic at fullback and an intelligent attacking dummy-half like Croker into the equation and suddenly Manly are asking a lot of questions to the defence.
We haven’t seen them play to their ceiling consistently this season, but an afternoon game in NRL Round 23 profiles nicely for the Sea Eagles and their expansive attack.
The Cowboys attack has clicked into gear post-Origin to average 28 points per game in a five-and-one run in their last six games.
Tom Dearden is causing a lot of issues for edge defenders down their left while Scott Drinkwater enjoys most of his touches outside Chad Townsend and Jeremiah Nanai on the right. We’ve seen encouraging evidence of some new looks and nice variation from that trio in particular over the past few weeks as the Cowboys fine-tune their attack for finals.
Their defence is still a concern though; as highlighted by a three-try collapse against Wests late last week. Valentine Holmes’ lateral movement and decision making was tested by the Tigers in NRL Round 22 and he can be a spot for Adam Reynolds and Reece Walsh in this one.
The Broncos ill-discipline has all but cost them a spot in the 2024 NRL finals series but they have the talent to turn it on at any moment. It makes tipping difficult in the head to head market, but if Brisbane are to make this interesting I’m expecting most of their attack to come through Reynolds, Walsh and Kotoni Staggs on the right.
St George-Illawarra have responded smartly after losses all season but no one saw that upset coming in Melbourne last week. It was a culmination of all the improvements the Dragons have made under Shane Flanagan this year; they defended well enough to keep the score low and keep themselves in position to win it with a few key moments.
Tyrell Sloan and Ben Hunt impressed to produce those moments last week and will need to do so again against the Bulldogs defensive system in NRL Round 23.
Like Melbourne, Canterbury work hard through the middle to apply pressure with their defence and the kicking game of Matt Burton. Despite ranking fourth-last in the NRL for total run metres, Burton’s ability to win field position with his boot has been a crucial factor in the Bulldogs resurgence. Given the productivity of St George’s back five (750+ run metres) last week, the Dragons profile well to combat Burton’s kicking game and win the yardage battle in this one.
For the Bulldogs, Sloan filling up in the line will be a target for Reed Mahoney and his forwards (g’day, Jacob) whenever they work into good-ball.
The One New Zealand Warriors dished up arguably their worst performance of the season last week against Parramatta. As a lifetime ticket holder on the Wahs bandwagon, it hurt to see them defend as individuals last week and struggle to generate positive looks in attack behind a comprehensively beaten forward pack. A lack of continuity across their playing squad is costing New Zealand in the pressure moments right now but with everything to play for this week and the finish line in sight for Shaun Johnson and Addin Fonua-Blake, I’m tipping a response.
Redcliffe are equally decimated by injuries right now and I like the Warriors pack to win the ruck and give Johnson & Co enough opportunities in good-ball. The spaces around Jake Averillo and Kodi Nikorima continue to be a spot for attacking teams and I like New Zealand’s left edge to cash in at some point in this one.
Newcastle boast four genuine halves, two hookers and one of the best fullbacks in the NRL in their Top 30 squad this year. As Adam O’Brien prepares to trial his fifth halves pairing of the season this weekend however, we are still somehow no closer to seeing the best version of this Knights attack.
Injuries have played their part but the Knights are now paying the price of their constant chopping and changing in the spine. While the ever-tireless Phoenix Crossland deputises in the No.7 jumper again this week, two genuine halfbacks in Jack Cogger and Jackson Hastings will instead watch from the sidelines. There’s little evidence to suggest Crossland and Tyson Gamble have the ballplaying qualities to bring Kalyn Ponga into the game this weekend but we’ve seen the Knights fullback win games like this one by himself.
Against a desperate Tigers side that showed promising signs – particularly in attack – last week though, I’m happy to take the value in Wests in a shootout.
Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com