Archie Wilson breaks down every game of Round 1 and provides his best betting plays of the weekend.
The season opener is a beauty, with last year’s semi-finalists Bay of Plenty travelling to Hamilton to take on the mighty Waikato.
Both of these sides look set to have a decent shot at going deep into the competition. However, from what we know based on last year, this Bay of Plenty side is one of the most exciting to watch in the competition.
Their combination of dynamic forwards and mercurial backs makes for a very exciting side, and in the season opener, I can see them getting the better of Waikato in a high-scoring affair.
Tips
Best: Bay Of Plenty To Win @ $1.67
Anytime Try Scorer: Frank Vaenuku @ $1.96
Same Game Multi: Bay Of Plenty To Win, Frank Vaenuku ATS & Over 57.5 Total Points @ $4.46
Moving into Friday, we have the Mako opening up their campaign as they host North Harbour in Nelson.
Looking at the game, the bookies certainly see Tasman running away with this one, and just based on the talent discrepancy, that does make plenty of sense.
Even with Tavatavanawai and Blackadder being called up for All Blacks duties, Tasman are still stacked and have plenty of game-breakers at their disposal. One of them is Noah Hotham, who is one of the most unlucky players to not be on the plane to South Africa.
This feels like a bit of a revenge tour for Hotham, and I could see him trying to make a big difference come Friday, which could certainly result in him dotting down over the line.
Tips
Best: Tasman (-18.5) @ $1.70
Anytime Try Scorer: Noah Hotham @ $2.00
Same Game Multi: Tasman (-18.5), Noah Hotham ATS & Over 61.5 Total Points @ $4.37
Counties have lost a few big names this season, with the likes of Hoskins Sotutu and Dalton Papali’i moving on to new opportunities. With those two departures, it is difficult to see how they can repeat last year’s 5-5 record, and they open up with one of the toughest tests in the competition, hosting Taranaki in round one.
No doubt Taranaki have one of the deepest squads in the competition. However, this weekend their line-up is missing some of their bigger names, like Josh Jacomb and Kini Naholo.
Regardless, there are still plenty of good names that make up the ’Naki side, and seeing them open up with a convincing win isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Tips
Best: Taranaki (-11.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Adam Lennox @ $2.25
Same Game Multi: Taranaki (-11.5), Adam Lennox ATS & Gibson Popoali’i ATS @ $14.96
How good is it having an opening-round Southern Derby, with Southland hosting last year’s runners-up, Otago, at the famous Rugby Park.
The Blue and Gold come into this one as hot favourites, as they have plenty of their squad from last year returning and look primed to make another big push in the competition.
In 2026, the Stags should look at taking another step forward, with plenty of their core names returning to the deep south. The biggest issue for them is they will be without new All Black Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa as will need to look elsewhere for front-foot ball.
Personally, I’m not sure where they will get that, especially against a revved-up Otago side who will be looking to make a statement in round one.
Tips
Best: Otago 13+ @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Lucas Casey @ $2.15
Same Game Multi: Otago 13+, Lucas Casey ATS & Christian Lio-Willie ATS @ $7.27
The headliner of the weekend comes in prime time on Saturday night, as the biggest rivalry in New Zealand rugby takes place in its newest gem of a stadium. Auckland, with the likes of Che Clark, Stephen Perofeta and Xavi Taele, make the trip down to Christchurch to try to beat the reigning champions, Canterbury.
The southerners will be boasting plenty of confidence in this one, with a large majority of their title-winning side still around, including the likes of Chay Fihaki and Torian Barnes in the starting XV. But the main show is in the No. 22 jersey, with Richie Mo’unga returning to New Zealand shores for the first time in three years.
Many, including myself, thought Canterbury would handle business in this one, but after seeing the quality in the Auckland side, it would not be a surprise to see them put the home side under plenty of pressure.
Tips
Best: Auckland (+13.5) @ $1.85
Anytime Try Scorer: Jone Rova @ $2.05
Same Game Multi: Auckland (+13.5), Jone Rova ATS & Xavier Tito-Harris ATS @ $7.63
Northland are entering this campaign after a fairly good season in 2025 and will be looking to build on the foundations they made, with the likes of Rivez Reihana at the helm. For the visiting Turbos, they left plenty to be desired last year, landing outside the top 10 and having the worst points differential in the whole competition.
I do expect somewhat of a bounce-back season from Manawatu, and this game against the Taniwha is a real opportunity to show they mean business, with the hope of leapfrogging to at least the middle of the table come seasons end.
Tips
Best: Manawatu (+9.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Brayden Iose @ $2.02
Same Game Multi: Manawatu (+9.5), Brayden Iose ATS & Under 62.5 Total Points @ $9.04
Wellington are entering this season after what was a dismal campaign from the Lions, where they went 3-7 on the year, and are taking on rivals Hawke’s Bay to open up. For the Magpies, they are full of talent all across the park, but the heartbeat of the side comes from the halves pairing, with Harry Godfrey and Folau Fakatava looking to dictate play.
Certainly, it is a potent combination that the Lions will have to deal with, but they might just have the pound-for-pound best player in the competition flying off the edge of their scrums to shut down Godfrey and Fakatava in Du’Plessis Kirifi. Throw in the fact the Lions openside will be fired up beyond belief entering this clash after his shock omission from the All Blacks squad, and it could be a long day for that duo.
Tips
Best: Wellington To Win @ $2.45
Anytime Try Scorer: Du’Plessis Kirifi @ $2.65
Same Game Multi: Wellington (+4.5), Du’Plessis Kirifi ATS & Tyrone Thompson ATS @ $10.83
