ABs vs Italy Best Bets

Game one is now in the books for the Dave Rennie era, and most fans are pretty happy with the performance we saw from his men.

The game itself wasn’t perfect, as there were clear cohesion issues on the defensive side of the ball. However, from an attacking outlook, the optimism the side played with was a brand of rugby we hadn’t seen for a long time from the premier side in the nation.

This weekend against Italy in Wellington conditions, I would still expect there to be plenty of “optimism” with ball in hand, along with an attacking prowess that the Hurricanes were able to deploy in that very stadium in record-shattering fashion.

Now, just before we get into the tips for the week, I do want to throw in the disclaimer that this isn’t the same Italy side from a decade ago. The side travelling to the capital have become a genuine threat in world rugby, constantly banging down the doors of more traditional powerhouses, meaning for the All Blacks to lift that Wellington win percentage, they are still going to have to put in a solid performance.

Righto, for the best bet of the week, I have already leaned on the expected optimism that the All Blacks are set to play with. Regardless of the weather, I would say they will be willing to hold onto the ball a bit more and be brave in situations where we have seen other All Blacks sides take the safe option.

For Italy, they have some serious attacking talent in their own right, and coming up against an All Blacks defence that is a work in progress would make it unsurprising to see them grab a wee points haul in this one, putting that total points line under threat.

Looking at the try-scorer market, there is a multitude of options here, as you could pick just about any of the All Blacks backs and have a decent shout. However, the value play for me is the man who dotted down twice the last time he was in this stadium, which was also the Super Rugby final, Ruben Love.

The young fly-half has been trusted with the most infamous jersey in world rugby once again and, based on the form he is in, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him dot over.

Rounding out here with the same game multi, I am throwing in those first two legs and combining them with Italy to cover the point start. With some of the changes in this All Blacks side, there is still a real question around how well they will have been able to gel over the past two weeks. With that, Italy could certainly provide a few scares in Wellington, which, we cannot stress enough, has not been a kind place to the All Blacks recently.

Tips

Best Bet: Over 63.5 Total Points @ $1.87

Best ATS: Ruben Love @ $2.20

Same Game Multi: Over 63.5 Total Points + Ruben Love ATS + Italy (+31.5) @ $6.49