After thousands of games across the country over the past few months, and plenty of preparation time, the 2025/26 College Football season is coming to a close with the College Football Playoff final taking place this weekend.
The game itself is a fascinating one, as many of the true bluebloods have bowed out, leaving two sides that not many would have picked coming into the season. A former bottom feeder of the Big Ten, Indiana, is set to face off with a once-dominant programme in the Miami Hurricanes, who, under Mario Cristobal, have a new lease on life and have become a genuine powerhouse on both sides of the ball.
For me, there is nothing more exciting than having fresh faces in the College Football final, so let’s crack into the final.
Does Carson Beck And Miami Have Enough In The Tank?
For Miami, there is one thing they know will turn up for them on the day, and that is their defence, which is one of the best units in the country. They have two of the best edge rushers in the nation, both bound for the top 50 of the NFL Draft, in Ahkeem Mesidor and headliner Reuben Bain Jr. They also have players like Keionte Scott in the secondary, who are able not only to play good coverage but also make physical plays in two key facets of the game.
However, the other side of the ball is not quite as consistent, with Carson Beck being something of an enigma at quarterback and, based on the last game, unable to throw the ball vertically with any real accuracy. Instead, they rely on their offensive line and two premier playmakers in Mark Fletcher out of the backfield and freshman sensation Malachi Toney, who can do just about anything required of him with the football in his hands. For the Canes, it will be crucial to ensure those two get the ball as much as possible and allow to do what they do best to set up scoring drives.
Will Indiana Continue On This Cinderella Run?
The Hoosiers enter this one with the opportunity to complete an unbeaten season, and the fact that this is even a statement worth making, based on where the programme has been in recent memory, is rather astounding. A lot of the credit that is due goes to head coach Kurt Cignetti, who, when asked in his introductory press conference how he could turn this school around, flat-out said, “I win”, and it is fair to say he has walked the talk.
Outside of Cignetti, the next most impressive part of this side is their quarterback, who was not some superstar recruit and ended up transferring from Cal after a decent season as the starter last year before taking the reins at Indiana. From there, Mendoza has gone on to win the Heisman and is just about a consensus number one overall pick in this year’s draft. What has been even more impressive is the lack of issues teams have been able to present Mendoza with, as he has continued to dominate every defence he has come up against.
There is clearly more to this Indiana team, with Sunday-level talent littered throughout the roster, but for me everything starts with their head coach and quarterback, and I expect this weekend will be the same.
Our Same Game Multi
- Malachi Toney 50+ Receiving Yards @ $1.55
- Elijah Sarratt 50+ Receiving Yards @ $1.64
- Total Points Over 47.5 @ $1.88
- Miami (+8.5) @ $1.88
The two lead-off bets here are similar in the sense that they are both 50-plus receiving yards, but for different players on either team. Starting with the aforementioned Malachi Toney, he has been a freak of nature in his first season of college ball after reclassifying and leaving high school a year early. The freshman, in my books, has been the best player in his class to this point, and his season numbers of 1,200 all-purpose yards and double-digit touchdowns echo that fact. As we also discussed for Miami, he will need to see plenty of the ball, and if he does, this feels like a good play.
On the other hand, Elijah Sarratt is a prototypical outside receiver with a basketball-like frame and the ability to dominate at the catch point against any cornerback. He has no doubt become Mendoza’s favourite and most reliable pass catcher this season, and in such a big game, I would expect him to look Sarratt’s way often.
I understand these are two very good defenses, and many would expect them to shut up shop and ensure this one doesn’t turn into a track meet. However, if I’ve learned one thing about college football, it is to expect the unexpected. With both teams not only having strong defenses but also plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball. So, with the random nature of this sport makes the “over” a solid chance.
Closing this one out, I have Miami covering the spread. It might seem like a long shot given the way Indiana has been operating as of late, but there is just something about this Miami team that I can’t quite give up on. I think their defense will be the toughest Mendoza has faced, and at a home Hard Rock Stadium, they have everything they need to take this one to a decision.