NRL Best Bets | Round 27

NRL Best Bets | Round 27

Brisbane Broncos
vs
Melbourne Storm
9:50pm Thursday | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Tips: Brisbane Broncos win, Jesse Arthars try 

Was it always the plan for Melbourne to bring back their cast of stars here? Or are we seeing a response from an embarrassed Craig Bellamy following last week’s capitulation to Easts? 

Melbourne’s resilience under pressure and willingness to play the long game has been their greatest quality this year. Unlike their opponents in this one, the Storm are happy to absorb pressure with their defence and trust the points will come late. They don’t have Harry Grant to orchestrate things in good-ball here though.  

I like Melbourne to come out firing but Brisbane might have too many points through Reece Walsh this week. Finals will be another story though…  

Manly Sea Eagles
vs
New Zealand Warriors
8:00pm Friday | 4 Pines Park, Sydney
Tips: Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles win, Tom Trbojevic try, Daly Cherry-Evans try

The Wahs created more than enough chances last week to have the game in the bag well before that knock on (or not knock on) at the death. Crucial errors though – unforced and at key moments – continue to undo all the pressure New Zealand successfully apply in games.  

It feels like Manly have more to play for here with DCE farewelled and Tommy Turbo in ominous form. The Sea Eagles are missing their fair share of key players too but between their halfback and fullback, they should run away with this one.  

Sydney Roosters
vs
South Sydney Rabbitohs
10:00pm Friday | Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Sydney Roosters 13+ , Angus Crichton try, Billy Smith try, James Tedesco try

Cam Murray returns to complete a miracle injury comeback in the final round of the regular season. It’s a moral win for a club that is desperate for some luck on the injury front and the playing field, but I don’t think Easts will offer them either.  

The Roosters are flying at the right time and can turn this into a tune up if they play it right. Emotions will be high early but if Easts can weather the storm and drag Souths into a grind, the Bunnies won’t go with them long.  

St George Illawarra Dragons
vs
Penrith Panthers
5:00pm Saturday | WIN Stadium, Wollongong
Tips: Penrith Panthers 13+ , Brian To’o 2+ tries

The reinforcements have returned for Penrith earlier than perhaps expected and it bodes poorly for the embattled Dragons. St George are running out of troops and steam to offer an easy target here for a Panthers side looking to play themselves into form.  

Isaah Yeo and Nathan Cleary are the key for Penrith, from here on out. Provided the Panthers role players do a job around them, this pair can win enough moments on their own between now and October.  

The run starts now and it starts with a statement.  

Gold Coast Titans
vs
Wests Tigers
7:30pm Saturday | Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Tips: Wests Tigers win, Jahream Bula try, Samuela Fainu try

There’s a lot to like about the style of footy Wests have found in the back end of the season. Physical, fast, expansive and at times chaotic; Benji’s Tigers are playing to their strengths and while it’s not a style that will consistently hold up against top teams, it will keep them comfortably clear of Wooden Spoon contention.  

The Gold Coast can play themselves out of said Spoon here if they get it right, but their inconsistencies in defence make them a difficult tip. With more new faces in new positions again this week, I can’t back the Titans to avoid the dreaded cutlery.  

Canterbury Bulldogs
vs
Cronulla Sharks
9:35pm Saturday | Accor Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Cronulla Sharks win, Ronaldo Mulitalo try

Cronulla built into a big win last week against the Newcastle Knights – something they haven’t managed to do consistently throughout the regular season.  

We (and they) know they have points in them, but it’s important the Sharks embrace the dirty work first and earn the right to pull the trigger. Canterbury typically excel in those little areas but how their small forward model matches up against the Sharks power game will test those efforts under fatigue.   

I’ve been with the Sharks to make the Top 4 since Round 1 so I can’t jump off now, even if Brisbane are in poll position.  

Dolphins
vs
Canberra Raiders
4:00pm Sunday | Kayo Stadium, Redcliffe
Tips: Canberra Raiders (+12.5) line, Owen Pattie try

Ricky’s Raiders have earned a rest before the finals which sees Redcliffe start as heavy favourites here. Given the absences The Dolphins are continuing to manage even at this point in the year though, I don’t mind backing Canberra to keep it close.  

They won’t execute on half chances like a full-strength Raiders attack has done this season, but they can still fight and scrap long enough in the grind to trouble a leaky Redcliffe ruck. 

Parramatta Eels
vs
Newcastle Knights
6:05pm Sunday | CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Parramatta Eels 13+ , Dylan Brown try, Josh Addo-Carr 2+ tries

Parramatta’s form has been superb to finish the regular season and I like them to go out with a bang here.  

Newcastle’s effort areas continue to impress but they don’t have the cattle to go with the Eels for long in yardage. With Mitch Moses kicking to corners to gradually win possession and field position, I can see the Eels having some joy hitting Newcastle’s edges in good-ball once fatigue sets in.

Dylan Brown gets a farewell jumper and I’m keen to back the narrative along with a big Eels win.