Two rosters decimated with injuries makes for a lottery game to kick off NRL Round 25.
South Sydney made it back-to-back wins thanks to some winning involvements from Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker in consecutive weeks. They’ve lacked the cattle & class to win those moments throughout the regular season but are defending well enough to make this a grind and win it ugly.
St George lost another heartbreaker last week and are without Jack de Belin and a few others here. In a scrap I’m keen to be with Bennett’s Bunnies.
Fizzing for this one. Styles make matchups and these two teams couldn’t be any more different; Canberra’s chaotic, unorthodox attack up against the most patient, formulaic system we’ve ever seen in the NRL.
Penrith will be stinging after last week’s result – and the fashion in which it happened – and I’m expecting a response here. They apply pressure throughout 80 minutes better than any team in the competition and will try to strangle Canberra out of the contest from the kick off here; leave the ball in corners, promote fatigue and wait to win it late.
The Raiders can unsettle that gameplan with some early points though. Assuming both teams double-down on what’s made them so good all season, this could go one way or the other.
Canterbury are feeling the pressure that comes with success right now. They’ve set the bar high over the last 18 months to make themselves an easy target whenever things don’t go their way. There’s a trend forming for this Bulldogs outfit though – they’ve performed poorly in fiery, highly-emotional contests all year as their typically disciplined approach goes out the window.
It’s an element of Canterbury’s game that Melbourne can test here, and Nelson Asofa-Solomona’s presence on the extended bench lends itself to that approach.
Melbourne to make a statement.
Redcliffe were up for The Battle of Brisbane last week until a Reece Walsh masterclass stopped them in their tracks. Herbie Farnworth is an enormous loss for the Dolphins not just in attack but in regards to how he shores up that left edge defensively. With Farnworth missing, the spaces around Kodi Nikorima have become a spot for opposing teams once again.
Manly look dead in the water but they can have some joy through Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic in attack if they get it right.
It feels like there might be a few points in this one as two depleted forward packs and two struggling defensive systems have one last roll of the dice.
The Wahs scraped home with a much-needed two points last week. They were comfortably the better side for most of the contest but continue to make poor, unforced errors in key moments to release all the pressure they build throughout.
The positive for New Zealand though is that their own defensive resilience under pressure remains elite. They aren’t capitalising on their opportunities like they did with Luke Metcalf in the box seat but they are still creating those opportunities through their defence and effort areas.
It’s repeatable actions vs unscripted chaos here. The Gold Coast can run away with this in a shoot-out but I like the Warriors to apply enough pressure throughout to keep it tight.
Easts are coming home with a wet sail and their attack profiles well against Parramatta’s middle here. Naufahu Whyte is in a rich vein of form to spearhead a Roosters yardage game complemented by two genuine kickers in Sam Walker and Hugo Savalo. It’s seeing Easts dominate field position and consistently put their strike players into positive involvements in good-ball.
Parramatta’s improvements have been a joy to watch this year but their defence will be tested by so many threats across Easts line.
I like the Roosters to run away with this one.
With a new-look halves pairing and different faces at dummy-half, Reece Walsh stepped up to the plate last week to own his moments in attack. Interestingly, Walsh only posted 35 receipts in that game – shy of his average 40 touches per game this season. If he can continue to pull the right trigger at the right times, the Broncos attack can maintain the rage until Ezra Mam and Adam Reynolds return.
Newcastle are on their last legs and present an easy kill here for Brisbane – if the Broncos play it right.
The key to Walsh’s success over the past few weeks has been in his patience and willingness to work into a game. If he plays patient and waits for the looks in this one, they’ll come late in each half.
North Queensland breaking the record for most errors in a winning game last week sums up their 2025 NRL season. For all the positives Tom Dearden and Scott Drinkwater produce in attack, the Cowboys poor defence and discipline has made things too hard for them at times.
Their middle in particular is a spot for attacking teams once fatigue sets in, and that’s exactly where Api Koroisau does his best work.
Provided the Tigers can embrace the grind early, the spaces will inevitably open up around the ruck. Whether it’s Jarome Luai bouncing back inside or Terrell May producing an offload, there’ll be chances in the back end of each half for Wests to capitalise on here.