This feels like the 2025 NRL Grand Final Preview at time of writing. Melbourne’s resilience under pressure remains their greatest quality – they’re capable of winning games ugly or late which bodes well given two key parts of their spine are missing here.
Penrith on the other hand are all but full strength and their spine is undefeated from eight games together this season. I’ll be with the Storm in a few months time if these teams both make it to the big dance, but this week it’s Penrith’s to win.
An inspired performance from Clint Gutherson propelled St George to an unlikely win last week and they profile well to do the same against New Zealand here. The Dragons don’t have the attack to go with the top teams in a shoot-out, but any Shane Flanagan team will fare well in the grind and that’s exactly where this Warriors side likes to play.
New Zealand remain one of the best defensive teams in the competition on their day but are still adjusting to life without Luke Metcalf on the ball. Wayde Egan is a big inclusion in that regard this week though and it’s enough for me to side with the Wahs at home.
Injuries played into their hands last week but we can’t deny the statement Canterbury made in the wet against New Zealand. Stephen Crichton’s roaming involvements in good-ball have added a new layer to the Bulldogs attack and it’s an encouraging sign with finals to come and Connor Tracey still to return.
Sydney too are tracking nicely and look best placed to sneak into the Top Eight at time of writing. Sam Walker’s playmaking is a joy to watch and is helping get the most out of Easts embarrassment of attacking riches out wide.
This is going to be a cracker.
The Titans have finally enjoyed some consistency in the spine to coincide with genuine improvements to close out the regular season. With Tino Fa’asuamaleaui now returning, there’s upside to the Titans as they look to spoil a few finals hopefuls on the run home.
I’ve held the faith with Cronulla all year but time is running out for them to find a winning formula in attack. Low percentage options on fifth tackle are repeatedly undoing all the positives Cronulla do in yardage. With their favoured right edge now missing two key contributors in Briton Nikora and Jesse Ramien, it’s difficult to back the Sharks with confidence here.
The fallout of Brisbane’s horror injury blow last week remains to be seen. They’re better placed than most clubs to cover two starting halves but Ezra Mam in particular is a big loss for the Broncos attack. Without him demanding attention down that left edge, the defence can stack an extra number on Reece Walsh wherever he goes – as we saw earlier in the year.
Desperate to stay inside the Top Eight and with the added motivation of a local derby, we should see The Dolphins resilient best in this one. Brisbane’s absences level the scales somewhat but they’ve still got the pack to run through Redcliffe late.
South Sydney all but avoided a Wooden Spoon last week but this Parramatta side is a different prospect to the chaotic Gold Coast Titans.
Jason Ryles has worked wonders with his roster to have the Eels as one of the more consistent teams in the competition right now. Whatever they lack in quality or class they make up for in effort and connection off the ball, allowing Mitchell Moses to provide the icing on top as he did last week.
Given South Sydney’s current injury toll, this is Parramatta’s to lose.
Since out-grinding the Melbourne Storm in NRL Round 20, the Sea Eagles have dropped three straight while scoring just 6.6 points per game. Injuries to Lehi Hopoate and Jake Trbojevic were considerable hurdles but there’s enough quality in this Manly roster to threaten the defence more than they are right now. Low on confidence and down on middles, it’s hard to back the Sea Eagles on current form.
Some Adam Doueihi heroics saw Wests go into the bye with a win and I like their chances again here. Api Koroisau can cause nightmares for Manly’s ruck defence and create enough half chances for Doueihi and Jahream Bula to turn into points.
Without a win since NRL Round 16 and still hopelessly crippled with injuries to key players, the Newcastle Knights are dead in the water and here for the taking. They don’t have the attack to trouble North Queensland if allowed to wind up, but Newcastle’s simple, gritty brand of football does profile well against a Cowboys middle that continues to struggle under fatigue.
Jason Taumalolo added a nice pass layer to that middle last week but their issues off the ball remain. If Jayden Brailey and rookie Matt Arthur can take enough smart options from behind the ruck, Newcastle will keep themselves in the fight as they’ve done for most of the season.