NRL Best Bets | Round 14

NRL Best Bets | Round 14

Newcastle Knights
vs
Manly Sea Eagles
9:50pm, Thursday | McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Tips: Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles win 13+ , Clayton Faulolo try, Tommy Talau try 

The Sea Eagles have gone WLWL since NRL Round 7 and are coming off a big win against the embattled Broncos. Their middle looks improved with Lachlan Croker, Jazz Tevaga and Ben Trbojevic in their preferred positions while Lehi Hopoate continues to trigger discussion around Manly’s best-choice fullback. 

Newcastle will miss Leo Thompson through the middle and I’m still not convinced on plugging Fletcher Sharpe into five-eighth. Manly have burned me a few times this year but this is theirs to lose.  

Melbourne Storm
vs
North Queensland Cowboys
8:00pm, Friday | AAMI Park, Melbourne
Tips: Melbourne Storm 13+ , Ryan Papenhuyzen try, Xavier Coates try, Eli Katoa try 

I thought we’d found some great value in Wests to pour through North Queensland’s passive middle last week but two early sinbins ended up the difference. I’m going back to the well here with a Storm attack back to full strength and spearheaded by Harry Grant from behind the ruck.  

The Cowboys new halves pairing looked good against the Tigers but how many free running looks will Melbourne offer them? Expect an aerial assault from the Storm when they work into good ball.  

Dolphins
vs
St George Illawarra Dragons
10:00pm, Friday | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Tips: St George-Illawarra Dragons win 1-12, Clint Gutherson try, Christian Tuipulotu try

A Dolphins win likely depends on whether Jeremy Marshall-King and Max Plath take the field on Friday night. Redcliffe’s pack looks horribly skinny on paper without two of their most productive and important pieces on both sides of the ball.  

While they managed some points against a decimated Bulldogs outfit before the bye, I’m not convinced by the little effort areas coming out of Redcliffe right now.  

St George in comparison are working hard for their points and executing well enough through Clint Gutherson of late. Dargs in a grind.  

Cronulla Sharks
vs
New Zealand Warriors
7:30pm, Saturday | Sharks Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Cronulla Sharks win, Siona Katoa try, Jesse Ramien try

The Wahs are specialists in the grind this year and carved out another brave win against South Sydney in NRL Round 13. Mitch Barnett is an enormous loss but few teams have the depth New Zealand boast in their wider squad this season. Their trajectory points to a Top Four finish if they can maintain the rage but I like the Sharks fresh off the bye in this one.  

To some extent, these sides are polar opposites. New Zealand’s floor is higher than Cronulla’s right now but it’s the Sharks who can trouble this competition if their attack fires.  

Brisbane Broncos
vs
Gold Coast Titans
9:35pm, Saturday | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Tips: Brisbane Broncos win 1-12, Selwyn Cobbo try  

Two struggling clubs, two under pressure coaches and two very, very different rosters.  

Brisbane are playing like a team of individuals right now and it makes them almost impossible to tip. That said, Madge has made some likable adjustments to his pack this week (Carrigan to lock, Piakura to the edge, Willison returns to prop rotation) while Reece Walsh is the key inclusion at fullback.  

Des Hasler is fighting a few different demons on the Gold Coast. Injuries in the spine continue to derail whatever attacking systems the Titans try to implement while their defence struggles to absorb the pressure.  

Broncs at home. 

Canberra Raiders
vs
South Sydney Rabbitohs
4:00pm, Sunday | GIO Stadium, Canberra
Tips: South Sydney Rabbitohs (+8.5) line, South Sydney Rabbitohs win, Alex Johnston try 

South Sydney let slip an early lead and the two points against New Zealand last week and I like them to kick on here.  

Canberra are flying high and their chaotic, offload-happy attack profiles well against a Rabbitohs pack that often struggles to wrap up the ball. I think there’s a chance the Bunnies post an upset here though. They’ve been staying in games purely on effort while lacking the class in attack to execute on field position. Cody Walker can change that here.  

Wests Tigers
vs
Penrith Panthers
6:05pm, Sunday | CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Wests Tigers 1st half (+4.5) line, Samuela Fainu try 

Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary go head to head for the first time in their first-grade careers and their battle alone is worth tuning in for.  

Cleary didn’t post a try assist last week but his tireless, patient approach on the ball wore Parramatta down across the 80-minutes. His ability to finish Penrith’s sets in negative areas for Wests outside backs will be a deciding factor here, but I like the Tigers to put up a fight.  

Canterbury Bulldogs
vs
Parramatta Eels
6:00pm, Monday | Accor Stadium, Sydney
Tips: Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs win 13+ , Matt Burton try

Lachlan Galvin lurks in the reserves and may be a late call up here. If that happens, the key storyline will be where he plays in this Bulldogs side. Toby Sexton’s form is also be a watch in this one.  

Parramatta have played themselves into form despite their recent record. They’ve found some nice repeatable actions through Junior Paulo (hit-and-spin) through the middle while Jack Williams has quickly become a go-to player on the right edge.  

Positive aside, the Galvin news distracts from what is a NRL-best Bulldogs defence while their attack continues to add layers from there.