Archie Wilson breaks down every game of the Quarter-Finals and provides his best betting plays of the weekend.
A really interesting rematch of an early-season Shield challenge, as Tasman look to overturn their 20-10 loss, with the footy now truly win or go home.
The tough thing for the Mako is that they’ve lost a couple of their most dynamic players following the announcement of the All Blacks squad. However, Northland haven’t been quite as dominant as they were early in the season, and it feels like there might just be a hint of value in the Mako’s market.
Tips
Best: Tasman (+3.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Macca Springer @ $1.91 ($12 First)
Same Game Multi: Tasman (+3.5), Macca Springer ATS & James Ramm ATS@ $8.31
Taranaki have had a late resurgence, thanks to a plethora of talent being brought into their squad, but those star names have now been called away for All Blacks duty.
The side they fielded when they demolished Hawke’s Bay last time out might have been the best I’ve seen in the NPC for a long time. But without the likes of the Barrett brothers, this North Harbour side, which has been humming all year, will be tough to beat.
Tips
Best: Either Team By Under 7.5 @ $2.30
Anytime Try Scorer: Rory Taylor @ $1.78 ($12 First)
Same Game Multi: Either Team By Under 7.5, Rory Taylor ATS & Kini Naholo ATS @ $6.50
Hawke’s Bay have been really struggling of late. After getting through their first six games unbeaten, they have gone winless in their last four, a major turn of events.
For Otago, their biggest issue is that they’re without Lucas Casey, who is currently dealing with injuries. But for mine, they’re the side with momentum and have a bit more quality across the park.
Tips
Best: Otago (-4.5) @ $1.87
Anytime Try Scorer: Finn Hurley @ $2.10 ($15 First)
Same Game Multi: Otago (-4.5), Finn Hurley ATS & Over 63.5 Total points @ $5.36
To close out the round, Canterbury are hosting Waikato on Sunday afternoon, in what looks like the most one-sided game on paper.
The bookies seem to agree, with Canterbury the biggest favourites of the weekend, meaning there isn’t a whole lot of value in the result market.
It’s going to be a tough ask for Waikato to pull this one off, but for mine, I think there will be plenty of points scored regardless.
Tips
Best: Over 64.5 Total Points @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Jone Rova @ $2.00 ($15 First)
Same Game Multi: Over 64.5 Total Points, Jone Rova ATS, Dallas McLeod ATS @ $7.18
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