Oscar Pannifex breaks down every game of the opening week of the NRL Finals and provides his best betting plays of the weekend.
Fitness-wise, South Sydney have perfectly timed their return to NRL finals footy.
In comparison, Newcastle are running out of troops after impressing to navigate a horror injury toll throughout the regular season. Now with what feels like the final nails in the coffin, Jacob Saifiti and Trey Mooney are two enormous losses to the Knights forward rotation this week.
Souths have struggled to work out of their own end at different times this year but a depleted Newcastle middle presents a winnable yardage battle for the Bunnies pack. If the Rabbitohs are allowed to start rolling downfield, we know they’ve got the personnel to turn territory into points.
Expect Cody Walker to make a target of the spaces around Sandon Smith on Newcastle’s right edge. The Knights halfback is prone to poor movements or decisions under pressure and I like Walker to pick him apart once fatigue sets in; playing short to Tallis Duncan or long to the old firm of Latrell Mitchell & Alex Johnston.
Tips
Best: Rabbitohs (-7.5) @ $1.85
Anytime Try Scorers: Tallis Duncan @ $2.65 & Latrell Mitchell @ $1.92
Same Game Multi: Rabbitohs (-7.5) + Tallis Duncan Anytime Try + Latrell Mitchell Anytime Try @ $5.71
Redcliffe bring form and fitness into their maiden finals campaign and I can make a case for them to travel across the ditch this week.
Few forward rotations enjoy a second-wave of the bench like the Dolphins and they’ll need it here against the best forward pack in the NRL right now. If Redcliffe can indeed match it with New Zealand through the middle of the field, they’ve repeatedly shown an ability this year to score from anywhere on the park.
Analytically speaking, almost everything points me towards a Wahs win but their defensive record over the past month is concerning.
Key to the Warriors success this season has been how they absorb pressure with their defence and yardage game. They play the same style across 80-minutes and it’s these habits that profile well in the pressure of finals footy.
With an average 30 points conceded across their last three games though, New Zealand are making things uncharacteristically hard for themselves of late…
Tips
Best: Dolphins (+4.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorers: Selwyn Cobbo @ $1.88
Same Game Multi: Dolphins (+4.5) + Selwyn Cobbo Anytime Try @ $2.56
The rhetoric coming out of Cronulla was very positive last week despite a buzzer-beater loss to an understrength Melbourne side. The Sharks were up for it physically and impressed to overcome two first-half sinbins, but how much of a toll did those efforts (and that result) take on this playing group?
We haven’t seen the best of Cronulla since Braydon Trindall went down four weeks ago. That being said, there’s every chance his return here inspires a return to form for the Sharks, especially given how he can end their sets. The flow-on effect in yardage of a good fifth-tackle kick is crucial to the productivity of this big Sharks forward pack and I like Cronulla to get back somewhere close to their attacking best through Trindall this week.
North Queensland can make this a shoot-out but there must be concerns with how they collapsed defensively against Canberra at home. Eight linebreaks and 50 points conceded is awful preparation when you consider Cronulla leaked just four tries (while down to 11 men at one point) against a stacked Storm spine… Up Up.
Tips
Best: Sharks @ $1.44
Anytime Try Scorers: Sione Katoa @ $1.75 & Teig Wilton @ $3.50
Same Game Multi: Sharks + Sione Katoa Anytime Try + Teig Wilton Anytime Try @ $5.84
The returns of Mitch Kenny and Isaah Yeo last week – albeit in a training run v Wests – come at an ominous time for this Panthers machine.
It was Easts with the most big-game experience coming into the finals series but with Penrith’s spine now back to full strength, it’s scary to think what they might do over the next month.
The Roosters meanwhile are dealing with the loss of Sam Walker and while it reads all doom and gloom in the media, there’s a case to be made for Hugo Savalo and Daly Cherry-Evans at this stage of the season. Two sound defenders and two long kickers to end their sets might just help Easts play a more finals-friendly brand of football in yardage to offset their risky habits in attack.
With arguably the better pack to win the yardage battle and two aerial threats on either wing to kick for in good-ball, I’ve got a feeling the Chooks might just get up for this one.
Tips
Best: Roosters 1-12 @ $4.10
Anytime Try Scorers: Daniel Tupou @ $2.40 & Mark Nawaqanitawase @ $2.35
Same Game Multi: Roosters 1-12 + Daniel Tupou Anytime Try + Mark Nawaqanitawase Anytime Try @ $11.68
