Archie Wilson breaks down every game of Round 2 and provides his best betting plays of the weekend.
Honestly, I was blown away by what I saw in round one from North Harbour, as with essentially a completely overhauled squad, they looked the most dangerous they have been in years against Tasman. They were playing a free-flowing brand of footy that allowed them to keep up with, and at some stages lead, a side that has been a recent powerhouse in provincial rugby.
For Counties, they will not be feeling quite as good about their performance as their cross-town rivals, as they were held to just five points against a Taranaki side that were missing their best player.
Entering this one, I understand there are often random results on a Thursday evening, but I am going to stick with the favourites in North Harbour to pull it off, as long as they play the same fearless brand we saw last weekend.
Tips
Best: North Harbour -6.5 @ $1.85
Anytime Try Scorer: Kade Banks @ $1.82
Same Game Multi: North Harbour -6.5, Kade Banks ATS & Under 63.5 Total Points @ $5.88
Friday plays host to one of the games of the round, with both Taranaki and Waikato entering this one with a win under their belts. For the home side, Taranaki, they probably were not stoked with their first performance of the season, only beating Counties 20-5, but no doubt you can chalk down the slow start to shaking off the rust.
On the other side of this match-up, Waikato took no time at all getting out of the blocks, as they flew out to a 35-0 half-time lead against a fairly good Bay of Plenty side.
Looking at the market, the expectation is for Taranaki to get the job done. However, what I saw from Waikato was a level of performance for 40 minutes that, if they can uphold that quality deep into the second half, will allow them to keep up with any side in the competition.
Tips
Best: Waikato (+7.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Nathan Stephens @ $2.10
Same Game Multi: Waikato (+7.5), Nathan Stephens ATS & Vereniki Tikoisolomone ATS @ $6.48
Moving into the first of the Saturday matchups, Auckland are set to host Wellington, who are coming off an opening-round demolition by Hawke’s Bay. The Lions certainly do not have the same bite as they had a couple of years back, but with many of their All Blacks away, that makes sense.
For Auckland, they are also coming off a loss, but one that proved they are not the same Auckland team we have become accustomed to in recent memory. Against Canterbury, they looked pretty good, and for the first time in a long time, their play on the paddock matched the talent they have on paper.
Normally, when these two sides meet, you would expect it to be a closely fought bout, but even with the threat of Du’Plessis Kirifi playing 12, it feels like a game Auckland should dominate.
Tips
Best: Auckland (-9.5) @ $1.92
Anytime Try Scorer: Payton Spencer @ $1.68
Same Game Multi: Auckland (-9.5), Payton Spencer ATS & Du’Plessis Kirifi ATS @ $9.28
Sneaky good game here, as Northland fired off a few warnings to the competition last week, handling the Turbos comfortably and doing it in exciting fashion. For Bay of Plenty, their opening 40 minutes were poor enough to give them an insurmountable challenge when trying to chase down Waikato.
Of course, that has created the feeling that maybe Bay of Plenty are not the same side we saw compete at a high level last season. And while I am not ready to sell my stock in the Steamers, I can see Northland really challenging them with all their firepower, and I could certainly see this one going in favour of the Taniwha. If not, it should be a close one.
Tips
Best: Over 59.5 Points @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Brady Rush @ $2.20
Same Game Multi: Northland (+9.5), Brady Rush ATS & Over 59.5 Points @ $5.52
A massive game for both Tasman and Hawke’s Bay, as this feels like a true test to see where each side stacks up against the rest of the competition. Both are coming off opening-weekend wins, but there is no doubt the Magpies were the more convincing of the two and looked like the more complete side.
For the Mako, it was clear they were missing some of their highest-profile names, with both Timoci Tavatavanawai and Ethan Blackadder on All Blacks duties. This weekend, though, they reintroduce club legend David Havili back into the fold at second-five, in the hope of papering over some of the cracks from their opening weekend.
Personally, I am not sold on either side of the result in the market, but what I do feel good about is the points total. Defence was a clear weakness for both sides last weekend, and they are now facing more prolific attacks than what they saw in round one, giving this clash the feel of a potential track meet.
Tips
Best: Over 60.5 Total Points @ $1.92
Anytime Try Scorer: Eli Oudenryn @ $2.35
Same Game Multi: Over 60.5 Total Points, Eli Oudenryn ATS & Neria Fomai ATS @ $6.69
About as big as a clash it can get in the NPC without being a playoff game. The two best sides in the competition facing off this early into the campaign, with the cherry on top being a Ranfurly Shield challenge.
Otago vs Canterbury at Forsyth Barr is going to be an absolute movie, with storylines galore on offer. It starts with the revenge tour of Otago, who came up short against a very similar Canterbury side in the NPC final last year. Then there is Richie Mo’unga making his first start on New Zealand shores since the 2023 World Cup. And, of course, the Log o’ Wood is up for grabs.
This is no ordinary Sunday afternoon clash. This is one that will set the tone for the competition as a whole, and I expect both teams to bring it, with the game still being undecided until the dying embers.
Tips
Best: Either Team By Under 7.5 @ $2.40
Anytime Try Scorer: Johnny McNicholl @ $2.10
Same Game Multi: Either Team By Under 7.5, Johnny McNicholl ATS & Over 63.5 Total Points @ $8.09
Sunday goes from having the two best sides in the competition to rounding out the weekend with potentially the two worst units in the competition going head-to-head. Both Southland and Manawatū came into the season with fresh hope that maybe this year could be different.
While it might be too early to draw conclusions, it would be fair to say neither side set round one alight, and now both have the opportunity to right the wrongs of last weekend.
When looking at the two line-ups for the weekend, you would be fairly hard-pressed to not back the Turbos on paper. While that is sometimes a dangerous way of operating, it is the way I am leaning with the final game of the round.
Tips
Best: Manawatū 1-12 @ $3.00
Anytime Try Scorer: Brayden Iose @ $2.25
Same Game Multi: Manawatū 1-12, Brayden Iose ATS & Michael Manson ATS @ $12.47
