Oscar Pannifex breaks down every game of Round 22 and provides his best betting plays of the weekend.
For the second week in a row, the Sydney Roosters have done just enough to walk away with the two competition points.
Daniel Tupou and Mark Nawaqanitawase were the difference against Melbourne in a scrappy contest two weeks ago before a Daly Cherry-Evans field goal sealed it against Newcastle last week. There was a lot to like about how Easts played out that field goal set and I like them to roll it into a big win here.
We keep waiting to see the best version of this Roosters attack and it will come on the back of a balanced and complete performance from their halves.
Tips
Best: Roosters 13+ @ $2.90
Anytime Try Scorers: Daly Cherry-Evans @ $5.20 & Sam Walker @ $4.10
Same Game Multi: Roosters 13+ + Daly Cherry-Evans Anytime Try + Sam Walker Anytime Try @ $29.12
It’s been a season from hell for St George-Illawarra but they’ve continued to fight and scrap for everything without complaint. The genuine improvements they’ve made since Round 1 have made for a side that doesn’t beat themselves, but they let one slip against the Gold Coast last week.
Was that performance an outlier or the eventual result of a gruelling season that ended a long time ago?
We’ll get a better gauge here of how St George might play out the rest of their year, but for Redcliffe it’s all about a Top 4 finish. If they can play it right and target the spaces around Daniel Atkinson, Kodi Nikorima can fill up the stats sheet here.
Tips
Best: Dolphins 13+ @ $1.88
Anytime Try Scorers: Herbie Farnworth @ $2.10 & Connelly Lemuelu @ $3.45
Same Game Multi: Dolphins 13+ + Herbie Farnworth Anytime Try + Connelly Lemuelu Anytime Try @ $8.60
Canterbury ambushed New Zealand early last week, offloading at will to put a lot of fatigue into the Warriors middles before halftime. Viliame Kikau had some crucial winning involvements on kick chases and on end of sets, making a compelling return from injury to remind us all what the Dogs have missed.
Melbourne can’t catch a trick with Harry Grant the latest to go down injured. So much of what the Storm do well starts with Grant from behind the ruck and it’s difficult to see how they respond here.
Canterbury have played themselves into position for a dream run into the finals and it should continue here.
Tips
Best: Bulldogs @ $1.50
Anytime Try Scorer: Matt Burton @ $2.60
Same Game Multi: Bulldogs + Matt Burton Anytime Try @ $3.13
Canterbury exploded out of the blocks last week but it looked like New Zealand were going to hold firm, minimise the damage and drag themselves back into the fight as they’ve done all year. When Chanel Haris-Tavita missed a rare look to tip Adam Pompey over and make it a one-score game in the first half though, it was obvious it wasn’t New Zealand’s night.
The Warriors haven’t played two bad games in a row in 2026 and they need to respond here with finals approaching. The Gold Coast finally got reward for effort with a big win last week and will look to start fast in this one.
I’m backing the Wahs to drag it into the grind until the fight goes out of them.
Tips
Best: Warriors 1-12 @ $2.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Ali Leiataua @ $2.75
Same Game Multi: Warriors 1-12 + Ali Leiataua Anytime Try @ $7.43
A full-strength middle forward rotation has made a huge difference to the Raiders attack in recent weeks. Ethan Sanders is being allowed to get over the advantage line at passive or retreating defences before triggering scoring actions on both edges.
Canberra’s ball movement against Souths and again vs Wests last week has been superb and they can trouble Penrith here if they play it right.
Penrith aren’t at their best right now and have a run of big opponents awaiting them in the coming weeks. This might just be the week to catch them napping.
Tips
Best: Raiders (+9.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Ata Mariota @ $7.50
Same Game Multi: Raiders (+9.5) + Ata Mariota Anytime Try @ $16.99
Serious injuries to Dylan’s Lucas & Brown come at a cruel time for the Knights. To lose both mid-game and end up within a Daly Cherry-Evans field goal of the Sydney Roosters is testament to the improvements Newcastle have made under Justin Holbrook this year, but the run home is now all the more difficult.
It’s the Knights this week who will play with all the pressure, after Brisbane’s finals hopes were finished in NRL Round 21.
With the pressure now released in Red Hill, it’s scary to think what this playing group can do when they’ve got nothing to lose. They’ve played with a fear of failure for weeks now but I won’t be surprised to see a very different Broncos outfit here.
Tips
Best: Broncos @ $1.50 & Kotoni Staggs Anytime Try @ $2.10
Anytime Try Scorer: Kotoni Staggs @ $2.10
Same Game Multi: Broncos + Kotoni Staggs Anytime Try @ $2.57
In a week where South Sydney lost Tallis Duncan, Cameron Murray & David Fifita, the Rabbitohs somehow found a way to get past a desperate Melbourne Storm side. Ashton Ward continues to play beyond his years as arguably the lead playmaker in this Rabbitohs attack, enjoying a number of clutch involvements with the result in the balance last week.
This might be a test too tall though.
Cronulla are on a tear right now, rolling through the middles most weeks to unleash Braydon Trindall and Nicho Hynes at isolated edge defenders. The Bunnies scramble as well as anybody but if they allow the Sharks to win the ruck and get their footy on, the cracks will open up in the back end of each half.
Tips
Best: Rabbitohs (+11.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Jye Gray @ $4.50
Same Game Multi: Rabbitohs (+11.5) + Jye Gray Anytime Try @ $5.87
Wests finals hopes are gone and it’s difficult to imagine how they turn things around quickly enough to go toe-to-toe with Parramatta here.
The Eels are at the wrong end of the premiership ladder themselves but there is a stark contrast to how they and the Tigers have gone about their 2026 campaigns.
Parramatta have impressed to double down on the basics and develop some positive habits while Wests have lost the identity and connection they played with to begin the year. Injuries and suspensions have played their part but you’ve got to work with what you’ve got, and Jason Ryles has been superb in this regard.
Tips
Best: Eels @ $1.42
Anytime Try Scorer: Kelma Tuilagi @ $3.60
Same Game Multi: Eels @ + Kelma Tuilagi Anytime Try @ $4.13
