NRL Best Bets | Round 18

NRL Best Bets | Round 18

Oscar Pannifex breaks down every game of Round 18 and provides his best betting plays of the weekend.

Penrith Panthers
vs
South Sydney Rabbitohs
10:00pm Friday | CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Rabbitohs (+4.5) @ $1.83 & Dayne Jennings Anytime Try @ $2.05

Souths have battled through the opening two-thirds of the season with a host of key players constantly dropping in and out of the side. With troops returning for the run home, there’s a bit to like about what layers the Rabbitohs can add to their attack.

Right now though, it’s all through Cody Walker and Penrith will surely have a plan to contain him. It’s a bad week to go up against Brian To’o in clubland and I’m expecting the Blues forgotten man to respond here.

There will be plenty of pressure on Ashton Ward to finish Souths sets well and limit the productivity of Penrith’s back five on kick returns. If he can do that, I like the Bunnies to keep this close.

Tips

Best: Rabbitohs (+4.5) @ $1.83
Next: Dayne Jennings Anytime Try @ $2.05
Same Game Multi: Rabbitohs (+4.5) + Dayne Jennings Anytime Try @ $2.95

St George Illawarra Dragons
vs
Wests Tigers
7:30pm Saturday | St George Venues Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah
Dragons (+5.5) @ $1.90 & Setu Tu Anytime Try @ $1.90

Adam Doueihi is a big inclusion for the Tigers as they look to make a late run back into the Top Eight. His ability to turn half chances into points on the edges was a nice foil for the traditional, on-the-ball work of Jock Madden earlier in the year and Wests will be hoping for more of the same.

That being said, St George-Illawarra aren’t making it easy for their opposition lately and they profile better than Wests in the grind. Newcastle were happy to win it late against the Tigers last week and that’s a blueprint the Dragons must embrace here.

Tips

Best: Dragons (+5.5) @ $1.90
Next: Setu Tu Anytime Try @ $1.90
Same Game Multi: Dragons (+5.5) + Setu Tu Anytime Try @ $4.05

Brisbane Broncos
vs
Cronulla Sharks
9:35pm Saturday | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Grant Anderson Anytime Try @ $2.30 & Gehamat Shibasaki Anytime Try @ $3.05

Cronulla’s season is at a crossroads as they sit just inside the Top Eight with a number of teams on the rise below them. Nicho Hynes’ absence hasn’t hurt the Sharks like many pundits expected – their attacking ceiling through Braydon Trindall is arguably higher – but Cronulla’s inconsistencies remain.

They simply must handle a decimated Broncos side here if they’re to be a genuine finals chance, but there’s something about a desperate Michael Maguire-coached side that makes me nervous.

Thomas Duffy is doing some good things at five-eighth to keep Ezra Mam out of the side, injured or not. I like Brisbane to find points down their left edge through Duffy here.

Tips

Best: Grant Anderson Anytime Try @ $2.30
Next: Gehamat Shibasaki Anytime Try @ $3.05
Same Game Multi: Grant Anderson Anytime Try + Gehamat Shibasaki Anytime Try @ $7.49

Parramatta Eels
vs
Manly Sea Eagles
4:00pm Saturday | CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Eels (+8.5) @ $1.90 & Brian Kelly Anytime Try @ $2.10

A season ending injury to Luke Brooks won’t dominate the headlines but he’s been a vital piece in Manly’s systems this year. If nothing else, the Sea Eagles are now without 270 games of first-grade experience as they approach the business end of the season and young Joey Walsh can expect plenty of attention, both on and off the field, moving forward.

This reads as a danger game for Manly given how Parramatta continue to fight their way through the regular season.

Brian Kelly is value on the Eels right wing up against the aforementioned Walsh and Clayton Faulalo defending in an unfamiliar position at left centre.

Tips

Best: Eels (+8.5) @ $1.90
Next: Brian Kelly Anytime Try @ $2.10
Same Game Multi: Eels (+8.5) + Brian Kelly Anytime Try @ $3.12

Newcastle Knights
vs
Dolphins
6:05pm Sunday | McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Knights 1-12 @ $3.15 & Dominic Young Anytime Try @ $1.82

Redcliffe got away with one last week, stealing an opportunistic try through Selwyn Cobbo at the death to overcome a mid-game injury to Isaiya Katoa and best the Wahs.

Brad Schneider will now prove his worth as one of the better backup halves in the NRL but Katoa’s absence undoubtedly caps a ceiling on the Dolphins attack.

For Newcastle, they continue to find new ways to win. A scrappy two-points over Wests last week doesn’t read well on paper but it’s the kind of game this Knights team would’ve lost last year. I like the value in Justin Holbrook’s men to cause an upset here.

Tips

Best: Knights 1-12 @ $3.15
Next: Dominic Young Anytime Try @ $1.82
Same Game Multi: Knights 1-12 + Dominic Young Anytime Try @ $5.07