We have Aurie’s Star Handicap predictions and best bets for the first stakes race of the season, which runs for $200,000 at Flemington this Saturday.
Headlining betting markets at Betcha is War Machine, but the best-backed runner is Ndola, who has the advantage of having a win on his record this preparation.
The 1200m Group 3 kicks off the early-spring carnival, which is just around the corner.
There has been a stack of money for Ndola after opening at $6, and that betting move at Betcha is tough to ignore.
The five-year-old son of Justify was too good for a Listed field at Flemington earlier this month, and his record at Flemington is good. He has eight starts for two wins and four placings, and he’s also a five-time winner at the distance.
There aren’t too many things going against him. He gets in with only 54.5kg, and he doesn’t need the run, unlike War Machine. He’s also drawn to the outside of the favourite, and he could dictate where the favourite ends up in the run.
If the market is anything to go by, Ndola could end up as the race favourite. He is trending in the right direction, and if he can improve another length, he can win consistently in stakes company.
| 5. Ndola (3) J: Jye Mcneil 54.5kg 213×1 T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes |
Cote Atlantique could sneak under the radar as a winning hope, but we’re prepared to stick with him. We saw him run well for most of his last preparation, including second placings at Doomben and Eagle.
Form in Queensland doesn’t always stack up well in Melbourne, but the Henry Dwyer stable is confident of his chances, and he could quickly improve with a run under his belt at Sunshine Coast earlier this month.
He finished sixth behind Arabian Rose, which was a good hit-out, and he has form on rain-affected tracks, including two wins and multiple placings. That is a key factor when betting the Aurie’s Star Handicap, so it’s worth including Cote Atlantique in picks as a value bet.
| 4. Cote Atlantique (6) J: Declan Bates 55kg 22206 T: Henry Dwyer |
It’s an even betting field, barring a few, including Fancify, who shouldn’t be overlooked as a genuine winning chance.
The 7YO mare is a two-time winner at Flemington, so she gets the tick on course stats. She’s also a two-time winner in soft conditions, and we believe her form will only improve with more rain around.
She gets into the race with only 54kg on her back, and taking the ride is apprentice gun Jabez Johnstone, who could pick up a few stakes races this season. He’s riding with confidence, and he should provide a good ride.
At $16, she is worth including in Aurie’s Star Handicap picks. We don’t think many lengths will cover first to last, so she’s worth the risk.
| 7. Fancify (5) J: Jabez Johnstone 54kg 8×629 T: Ciaron Maher |
There is a lot of value in taking a same race multi, and the payouts can be massive.
Our Aurie’s Star Handicap SRM pays $15.50 for Ndola Top 3, Cote Atlantique Top 3, and Fancify Top 4.
Punters get value odds at Betcha, and Ndola paying $1.80 for a Top 3 finish is an excellent bet. He is one of the leading chances to win, and the odds are boosted with the $2.90 for Fancify to finish Top 4.
Money is likely to come for a few runners, Ndola included, so we recommend taking the early value.