Oscar Pannifex breaks down every game of Round 17 and provides his best betting plays of the weekend.
South Sydney can’t take a trick right now with Campbell Graham and Latrell Mitchell joining an extensive casualty ward in Redfern. The lack of continuity and cohesion along an unfamiliar backline has put a ceiling on one of the better attacking outfits in the NRL but I still think they’ve got enough points in them for Parramatta here.
Jason Ryles deserves plenty of credit for keeping the Eels afloat in a difficult and injury ravaged season. They’re doing a lot of the little things right and are creating some looks on either edge through the running games of Joash Papali’i and Isaiah Iongi in particular.
If Souths can do enough on those two though, they should bank this one.
Tips
Best: Rabbitohs @ $1.53
Next: David Fifita Anytime Try @ $3.00
Same Game Multi: Rabbitohs + David Fifita Anytime Try @ $3.50
Canterbury made some big moves last week in a scrappy win over Sea Eagles. Almost as important as the two points earned was the move to five-eighth for Stephen Crichton, who played on the ball (63 touches) as a distributor (40 passes) in a new look for the Bulldogs attack.
He won’t execute on all the looks he gets right now but at the very least, Crichton’s gravity stresses the defence and pulls one less number away from Lachlan Galvin on the right edge.
The Gold Coast are coming off a field-goal inspired win of their own and I like them to keep the momentum going. Zane Harrison is offering some nice and repeatable involvements in attack to free up Keano Kini and Jayden Campbell to play more of their natural game and the Gold Coast look all the better for it.
Tips
Best: Titans 1-12 @ $3.05
Next: Beau Fermor Anytime Try @ $4.10
Same Game Multi: Titans 1-12 + Beau Fermor Anytime Try @ $11.35
While we keep waiting for Brisbane to flick a switch and begin their climb into the Top Eight, the Roosters aren’t travelling much better.
Inconsistency continues to plague Easts ‘26 campaign; shut-outs against Cronulla and Canberra were surrounded by disappointing losses to Melbourne and Redcliffe respectively, and Trent Robinson will be hoping the win-loss-win-loss pattern stops here.
With a bye awaiting them, I’m keen to back Easts to get the job done. Their middle has still performed well in most losses to date and can be a strength for them here against a depleted Broncos pack.
Tips
Best: Roosters 1-12 @ $2.90
Next: Robert Toia Anytime Try @ $2.38
Same Game Multi: Roosters 1-12 + Robert Toia Anytime Try @ $6.58
New Zealand continue to impress with key players missing, making light work of the Cowboys last week. Wayde Egan was at his manipulative, scheming best to completely fold North Queensland’s ruck defence and generate scoring opportunities on the edges.
Redcliffe are also playing a brand of football that suggests they will feature deep into September. Their quality of depth in key positions has allowed the Dolphins – like the Wahs – to play a familiar style regardless of the personnel available and their attack in particular is reaping the rewards.
It’s New Zealand who have displayed the most resilience and discipline in defence though and that’s where I’m putting my money here.
Tips
Best: Warriors (+6.5) @ $1.87
Next: Under 51.5 Total Points @ $1.90
Same Game Multi: Warriors (+6.5) + Under 51.5 Total Points @ $2.93
As mentioned above, North Queensland’s middle fell apart last week in a big loss to New Zealand. The Cowboys big forwards are a handful to contain when rolling downhill but become a spot when forced into repeat efforts in defence.
Penrith’s ability to chip away at a weakness until the cracks appear is second to none and I like Nathan Cleary to replicate the Warriors gameplan here; turning players back against the grain to flood the ruck, promote fatigue into the defence and strip the edges before firing a shot.
Paul Alamoti hasn’t had much luck scoring at right centre this year but can cash in on the left side this week, as can Thomas Jenkins to his outside.
Tips
Best: Paul Alamoti Anytime Try @ $2.40
Next: Paul Alamoti / Thomas Jenkins 2+ Tries Combined @ $2.30
Same Game Multi: Paul Alamoti Anytime Try + Paul Alamoti / Thomas Jenkins 2+ Tries Combined @ $5.45
The bookies are offering a big head start for Melbourne here and I’m keen to take it.
The Storm aren’t finals certainties just yet but they’ve played themselves into form, namely on the back of their defence. There’s a resilience and composure under pressure in this Melbourne defensive line that wasn’t there to begin the year and I like them to keep this close or cause an upset.
Josh Feledy is a new face in an unfamiliar position for Manly at right centre this week and that’s where I think the Storm will go looking. Joe Chan is worth a stab at an enormous price, too.
Tips
Best: Storm (+6.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorers: Moses Leo @ $2.30 & Joe Chan @ $4.75
Same Game Multi: Storm (+6.5) + Moses Leo Anytime Try + Joe Chan Anytime Try @ $14.02
We took the value in the Dragons line last week and I’m taking us back to the well here.
Canberra have one of the healthiest rosters in the competition right now but their younger players in particular are beginning to feel the week-to-week drain of a fulltime NRL regular season. There were signs of life around Ethan Strange shifting back to the left edge alongside Hudson Young last week and it’s a positive move for this Raiders attack, but their defensive deficiencies remain.
St George’s attack is passenger-level at best but they can play with enough possession and field position in this one to keep it close.
Tips
Best: Dragons (+10.5) @ $1.85
Valentine Holmes Anytime Try @ $2.40
Same Game Multi: Dragons (+10.5) + Valentine Holmes Anytime Try @ $3.49
Adam Doueihi’s return could not have come sooner for a struggling Tigers outfit.
The loss of both starting backrowers (Samuela Fainu & Kai Pearce-Paul) is being felt on both Wests edges with Jock Madden in particular becoming a spot over recent weeks. Doueihi’s return will ideally shore up that right edge a little while also adding another spark in attack; he was often the catalyst for any Tigers scoring action to begin the year and I’m expecting an immediate response from Wests here.
That being said, the repeatable actions Newcastle are playing with right now – on both sides of the ball – make them the smart bet. Knights in a grind.
Tips
Best: Knights 1-12 @ $2.95
Next: Bradman Best Anytime Try @ $2.45
Same Game Multi: Knights 1-12 + Bradman Best Anytime Try @ $7.27