Oscar Pannifex breaks down every game of Round 16 and provides his best betting plays of the weekend.
St George played themselves into some form before the bye and get a winnable game here against a Knights side presumably without Kalyn Ponga.
Newcastle’s systems impressed earlier in the year to hold steady and produce a familiar style of football while their star fullback was sidelined, but Ponga’s absence no doubt puts a lower ceiling on this Knights attack.
It’s for that reason that I’m happy to give St George the start. They don’t have the attack to go with anyone in a shoot-out right now but in a grinding, low-scoring affair this Dragons squad arguably profiles best.
Tips
Best: Dragons (+12.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Valentine Holmes @ $2.75
Same Game Multi: Dragons (+12.5) + Valentine Holmes Anytime Try @ $4.06
Redcliffe are consistently producing the kind of form that many (g’day) predicted from them this season. It was a slow start but The Dolphins have found what works for them right now to perfectly complement the poise and tempo of Isaiya Katoa in attack.
He’s pulling the strings across the field while Kodi Nikora and a strike backline react around him, and it spells danger for a Wests defence that has leaked an average 42 points in their past six games.
Kristian Woolf is reaping the rewards of a deep Top 30 roster right now, so much so that it shouldn’t matter whether The Hammer backs up here or not. Phins Up!
Tips
Best: Dolphins (-7.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Jack Bostock @ $2.05
Same Game Multi: Dolphins (-7.5) + Jack Bostock Anytime Try @ $3.11
Gold Coast had the two points in the bag and were halfway home from Leichardt last week before giving it away. Errors, penalties and poor fifth tackle options in the final 10 minutes allowed the Tigers to take the lead and then punch a Jarome Luai-shaped nail in the coffin on fulltime.
Now faced with the unenviable task of hosting the Penrith Panthers, it’s difficult to see how the Titans respond here. Oliver Pascoe was spotted by Wests last week in their comeback and it’s ominous to think what the Panthers machine might do to a spot player like that, here.
Tips
Best: Panthers 13+ @ $1.91
Anytime Try Scorer: Paul Alamoti @ $1.70 & Dylan Edwards @ $1.96
Same Game Multi: Panthers 13+ + Paul Alamoti Anytime Try + Dylan Edwards Anytime Try @ $4.29
Tommy Turbo is back and there’s a lot to like about how he can open up the left-hand side of the field for this expansive Manly attack.
Luke Brooks and Ben Trbojevic have been doing a wonderful job of straightening things up on the left tram line and creating space for Clayton Faulolo to make the right pass on the edges. The threat of Tom Trbojevic sweeping around those same routes is a different one for edge defenders to consider though. He’s improved his ballplaying over the years to take advantage of the panic he puts into defensive units and it profiles well for Lehi Hopoate in this one.
It feels like Canterbury are building towards something and I’m not ruling out an unlikely upset here, but their right edge is still a spot and I like Turbo to cash in down that channel, one way or another.
Tips
Best: Lehi Hopoate Anytime Try
Next: Lehi Hopoate 2+ Tries @ $3.30
Anytime Try Scorer: Tom Trbojevic @ $1.82
Same Game Multi: Lehi Hopoate 2+ Tries + Tom Trbojevic Anytime Try @ $7.95
Whether or not that drop-out shot-clock blunder last week decided the result against Cronulla, the Warriors once again showed enough in a loss to suggest they’ll be there or thereabouts come September.
James Fisher-Harris and Leka Halasima remain sidelined in a week where the Warriors Origin stars may also sit out, but I still think this New Zealand defence profiles well against the Cowboys attack. The Warriors consistently win the middle to slow the ruck and buy time for their edges to make strong decisions and get bodies in front of the ball.
In contrast, the spaces around Jaxon Purdue and Zac Laybutt (shifting to five-eighth and centre, respectively) can be a spot for the Warriors attack, either to generate ruck speed themselves or punch straight through the line.
Tips
Best: Warriors 1-12 @ $2.95
Anytime Try Scorers: Marata Niukore @ $3.90 & Taine Tuaupiki @ $2.30
Same Game Multi: Warriors 1-12 + Marata Niukore Anytime Try + Taine Tuaupiki Anytime Try @ $30.83
Canberra’s finals chances are entering mathematical territory unless they can produce the kind of resurgence we’ve seen from their opposition in this one.
Craig Bellamy’s ability to turn the Storm’s season around and reproduce the kind of defensive resilience and composure we’ve come to expect from Melbourne cannot be understated. The very same group of players who were dead in the water six weeks ago are now staying in their systems under pressure and fatigue before a superstar spine does the rest.
With Origin backups still an unknown, I’ll keep things simple and back Sua Fa’alogo to produce some magic down the left edge or pinch a try backing up in support.
Tips
Best: Storm @ $1.40
Anytime Try Scorer: Sua Fa’alogo @ $1.85
Same Game Multi: Storm + Sua Fa’alogo Anytime Try @ $2.17
A few punters (me included) liked Easts at big odds last week against Redcliffe but were sorely disappointed in the second half.
The Roosters pack can roll downfield better than almost anybody this season but their ill-discipline and poor execution continues to be a concern. Daly Cherry-Evans was recruited for this very period of the season and I’m expecting a response from him in this one.
Cronulla are enjoying the output of a full strength back three but if Cherry-Evans (and or Sam Walker) can put the ball in unfavourable positions for Will Kennedy & Co, Easts can win the field position battle and the scoreboard battle from there.
Tips
Best: Roosters 1-12 @ $2.95
Anytime Try Scorer: Angus Crichton @ $3.80
Same Game Multi: Roosters 1-12 + Angus Crichton Anytime Try Scorer @ $9.79