After going the full 5 rounds with pound-for-pound champion Islam Makhachev, number 1 contender JDM (18-3) is looking to bounce back with a victory over Brazilian Muay Thai finisher Carlos Prates (23-7). Despite the haunting loss in losing the championship belt to Islam, JDM can take 25 minutes’ worth of experience going against the best of the best; not many make it to the 5th round with Makhachev hunting them down. JDM has strong kickboxing ability, a good grapple and can scramble back to his feet (unless it’s Islam). JDM hits hard, but does Carlos hit harder?
Prates enters the Octagon off the back of two KO/TKO victories, which included former champ Leon Edwards. Prates will have the reach advantage over JDM and will look to use his flare and lethal knockout power to try and secure a significant top 5 victory, but does he have the cardio to go 5 rounds deep should it be required?
JDM is 8-1 in the UFC and has yet to be knocked out in it. Carlos is 6-1 in the UFC, losing to Ian Garry by decision almost a year ago to date. JDM’s boxing ability and consistent striking output should shine over the 5 rounds if he can withstand the flashy finishing attempts from Prates.
Tip: JDM by points @ $4.40
Veteran Dariush (23-7) takes on the Aussie up-and-comer Quillan Salkilld (11-1) who is 4-0 in the UFC winning two by KO/TKO in the first round. Dariush is a step up in class in certain respects as a fighter with ample experience against top-tier competition. Dariush is looking to bounce back from his early 16 second loss to BSD. Prior to the fight was an impressive win over Renato Moicano. With this experience, however, is a battle-scarred Dariush at the tail end of his career. Salkilld is quick, his strikes are clean, and there is very little for Dariush to read. Salkilld has the speed and strength but needs to be wary of the veteran or could end up getting caught or taken down himself.
Tip: Salkilld by KO/TKO @ $1.65
Tim Elliot (22-13) has found recent success with his strong wrestling over weaker grappling opponents. Steve Erceg (13-4) has slumped somewhat withing the UFC with recent defeats to the likes of Alex Pantoja, Kai Kara-France and Brandon Moreno. Erceg has bounced back however, with a win Ode Osbourne, who just isn’t really in that same realm of big names.
Elliot is gritty and a bit of a veteran now at the age of 39 with 21 ufc fights under his belt of which he has won 10 and lost 11. ’Astroboy’ on the other hand has had 7 UFC fights winning 4 and losing 3.
I don’t think Elliot will have the same level of success with his takedowns and grappling with Erceg as he did with his recent victories as Erceg has never been submitted and could just come down to who is pressuring who that puts them in the judges favour. Erceg might just look the better overall in this match-up if he can avoid getting stung or thrown off by Tim and his unorthodox style.
Tip: Erceg by points @ $2.05
Another fighter out of CKB and Two heavy-hitters in this matchup. Gaziev (14-2) enters the Octagon on the back of a tough 1st round loss to Cortes-Acosta and from his 14 wins has won 9 via KO/TKO and is 3-2 in the UFC. Brando “the Balkan Bear” (6-1) is on a tear, winning his first two UFC fights within the first round, has finished all of his wins with 5/6 by KO/TKO and 1 via Submission. If “The Bulkan Bear” can stuff the takedown attempts and stay on his feet, he has the knockout power to add another win to the CKB tally.
Tip: Brando Pericic @ $1.75
Tai Tuivasa (13-9) is in a 6-fight slump and is sad to see the drop off in performance. We have to track all the way back to 2022 for his last win where he won via elbow over Derrick Lewis and received a fight of the night performance. With 7 of his 8 wins in the UFC coming via KO/TKO. Louie Sutherland (10-5) has lost his 0-2 in the UFC, but from his 10 professional wins has won 8 by KO/TKO.
Both fighters in pretty rough spots at the moment, weird to see Tuivasa as such a big favourite but I think for Tai, this is a must-win for him. Being up against someone who is struggling for their first UFC victory and lost via KO/TKO only 1 month ago. Time for Bam Bam to bounce back.
Tip: Tai Tuivasa by KO/TKO @ $ 1.80
Kiwi fighter out of CKB, Olli Schmid (4-2), gets his UFC debut on four days’ notice against Marwan Rahiki (8-0) with Jack Jenkins pulling out due to injury. We don’t know much about Rahiki and even less about Olli Schmid apart from winning his last two fights by spinning backfist, and from his 4 wins has won 3 by KO/TKO. Anticipate for plenty of punches to be flying if Rahiki’s debut (only 1 month ago) is anything to go by in addition to winning 7/8 of his professional fights by KO/TKO. Although Olli Schmid has had no real time to prepare for Rahiki, the same can be said both ways, with both fighters going in relatively blind.
Tip: Rahiki by KO/TKO