Oscar Pannifex breaks down every game of Round 13 and provides his best betting plays of the weekend.
Manly’s resurgence under Kieran Foran has produced multiple highlight reel moments but it’s their defensive improvements that are most encouraging. To be conceding an average 13 points per game under the current ruck interpretations is a testament to the connection in this playing group right now.
The best version of this Sharks attack can buck the trend and put a few points on the Sea Eagles here but Manly are the more reliable and repeatable bet right now. Their left edge in particular profiles well against a leaky Sharks right edge unit.
Tips
Best: Sea Eagles @ $1.96
Anytime Try Scorers: Lehi Hopoate @ $1.77
Same Game Multi: Sea Eagles + Lehi Hopoate try @ $2.85
Parramatta have impressed to overcome a host of injuries in both the pack and backline but Mitch Moses might be a step too far.
In contrast, the Knights have genuine depth in key spine positions and can kick on here fresh from the bye, regardless of whether Kalyn Ponga backs up from Wednesday night.
If Newcastle can continue to complete at a high rate and dominate in yardage as they’ve done to begin the season, the points will slowly pile up in good ball.
Tips
Best: Knights @ $1.22
Anytime Try Scorers: Dylan Brown @ $3.45 & Fletcher Sharpe @ $1.77
Same Game Multi: Knights + Dylan Brown Anytime Try + Fletcher Sharpe Anytime Try @ $6.28
A second-half comeback against Melbourne last week highlighted all the best parts of the Bulldogs otherwise struggling attack. They did well to expose a spot on the Storm’s right edge and put Matt Burton into running involvements in the second- and third-layer of a shift; something Wests had plenty of joy doing with Adam Doueihi earlier in the year.
With key players back this week I like the Tigers to stop the rot and get back somewhere close to winning form, but I’m happy to follow the Bulldogs in again here.
Tips
Best: Bulldogs 1-12 @ $3.45
Anytime Try Scorer: Bronson Xerri @ $2.65
Same Game Multi: Bulldogs 1-12 + Bronson Xerri Anytime Try @ $7.97
Craig Bellamy is leaning on his thinning group of senior players but was punished for it last week. Josh King punched out 80 minutes in the middle against Canterbury with a plan to defend on the edge but was spotted by Matt Burton in the Bulldogs’ second half comeback.
It’s more evidence that Melbourne are feeling the pinch right now and with pressure on their Origin stars to backup, I’m happy to be with Easts here.
Whether or not the Roosters host of Origin stars feature here shouldn’t affect their gameplan; crash through the front door, fold the line and find points on the edges.
Tips
Best: Roosters @ $1.77
Anytime Try Scorers: Siua Wong @ $4.66 & Angus Crichton @ $4.40
Same Game Multi: Roosters + Siua Wong Anytime Try + Angus Crichton Anytime Try @ $21.94
St George’s improvements over the past fortnight have been genuine but they are still lacking the polish to turn field position into points. They’re not the easy beats they were to begin the season but they will struggle to go with a Broncos attack featuring Reece Walsh and a returning Payne Haas.
While the Dragons worry about Walsh’s ballplaying and his pass targets out wide, I like the value in Brisbane to crash over a little closer to the ruck here.
Tips
Best: Broncos @ $1.12
Aytime Try Scorers: Brendan Piakura @ $4.20 & Xavier Willison @ $3.70
Same Game Multi: Broncos + Brendan Piakura Anytime Try + Xavier Willison Anytime Try @ $14.31
I can’t understand why North Queensland are rank outsiders here and I’m happy to take on the bookies in this one.
Scott Drinkwater and Jake Clifford are pulling all the right strings behind a forward pack that is winning the yardage battle most weeks. Canberra’s pack can present a more difficult challenge than North Queensland’s recent opposition but I still like the Cowboys to better execute on the chances they earn in attack.
Tips
Best: Cowboys @ $2.25
Anytime Try Scorers: Zac Laybutt @ $2.05 & Scott Drinkwater @ $2.30
Same Game Multi: Cowboys + Zac Laybutt Anytime Try + Scott Drinkwater Anytime Try @ $6.60
Here’s to hoping State of Origin on Wednesday night doesn’t rob this game of its household names.
The Warriors have been dealt horror injury blows in consecutive weeks (Tanah Boyd and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck) and will now lean on the deepest roster in the competition to maintain the rage. It makes for a tough match up here against a flying and fully-fit Panthers side but the Wahs don’t need to win this to be considered genuine premiership contenders; they already are.
Both these sides know what works for them this season and play to a plan better than most.
It’s Penrith with the advantage in NRL Round 13 but I like New Zealand to keep their receipts for the back end of the year.
Tip
Best: Panthers 1-12 @ $2.85