Oscar Pannifex breaks down every game of Round 12 and provides his best betting plays of the weekend.
Redcliffe have played themselves into form following a slow start to the year. They’ve fixed their defence around the ruck and on their own line which has flowed into a more confident attack relishing the return of Jeremy Marshall-King and Jack Bostock, in particular.
Kodi Nikorima and Herbie Farnworth are big losses to that attack though in a week where the Dolphins are already missing a number of Origin stars.
Those absences present a winnable game for Canberra if they play it right. Their strength is around the ruck and they profile well to flood that middle and promote some fatigue into Redcliffe’s pack before getting them late in each half.
It won’t be pretty but Canberra might just have enough moment players to steal this.
Tips
Best: Raiders 1-12 @ $2.95
Anytime Try Scorer: Kaeo Weekes @ $1.88
Same Game Multi: Raiders 1-12 + Kaeo Weekes Anytime Try @ $5.66
The pressure is turning up in Belmore and I’m jumping off them after holding faith the past few weeks. The increased speed and fatigue in today’s game is exposing chinks in Canterbury’s defence that haven’t been there in season’s past, and the flow-on effect that has had on their middling attack is clear to see.
Even with two crucial players missing here, it’s Melbourne with all the momentum right now.
They don’t have to be perfect but between Sua Fa’alogo and Jahrome Hughes, the Storm attack can outscore anything Canterbury have dished up in recent weeks. Melbourne will have seen the way Nicho Hynes sliced through untouched one-off the ruck last week and it’s ominous signs given what Hughes can do when over the advantage line.
Tips
Best: Storm @ $2.30
Anytime Try Scorers: Sua Fa’alogo @ $1.88 & Jahrome Hughes @ $3.25
Same Game Multi: Storm + Sua Fa’alogo Anytime Try + Jahrome Hughes Anytime Try @ $8.79
New Zealand’s dismantling of Brisbane in Magic Round – in the wake of Tanah Boyd’s shattering injury – is testament to their genuine premiership credentials.
The deepest squad in the NRL knows what works for them right now and whether it’s Boyd, Te Maire Martin or Luke Metcalf at halfback moving forward, the Wahs profile well to continue their winning form.
That being said, this is a danger game for Andrew Webster’s men.
St George played out the best 80 minutes of the year last week and will run it back here against a Warriors team coming off a travel-disrupted week and missing both their Origin stars and their first-choice halfback.
Everything we’ve seen from New Zealand so far suggests they will handle the test but St George won’t make it easy for them.
Tips
Best: Dragons (+13.5) @ $1.98
Anytime Try Scorer: Christian Tuipulotu @ $2.15
To Score 2 or More Tries: Alofiana Khan-Periera @ $2.75
Same Game Multi: Dragons (+13.5) + Christian Tuipulotu Anytime Try + Alofiana Khan-Periera 2+ Tries @ $18.54
I’ve been slow to jump on board the FozBall movement but this version of the Sea Eagles is getting more and more difficult to deny.
Clayton Faulalo’s selection at fullback over a highlight reel player like Tolu Koula is nice evidence of how Kieran Foran has Manly playing to their strengths. Faulalo – a genuine ballplaying fullback – is making great decisions with the ball to help get the best out of the Sea Eagles strike ballrunners out wide.
I’m expecting no different this week; Luke Brooks and Ben Trbojevic to straighten up on the tram line and put Faulalo into three-on-two situations on the edges. Gold Coast’s unfamiliar right edge in particular could be in for a long night here.
Tips
Best: Sea Eagles @ $1.28
Anytime Try Scorers: Ben Trbojevic @ $2.95, Josh Feledy @ $2.40
To Score 2 Or More Tries: Blake Wilson @ $3.00
Same Game Multi: Sea Eagles + Ben Trbojevic Anytime Try + Josh Feledy Anytime Try + Blake Wilson 2+ Tries @ $25.44
Inconsistencies have plagued both these sides to begin the regular season, and in particular the past fortnight.
For the Cowboys to lose to Parramatta in a shoot-out before grinding away Easts for an 18-12 win speaks to the swings North Queensland are capable of, both between and during games.
South Sydney haven’t been much better. Injuries and new combinations have played their part but the gap between a 36-point demolition of Cronulla and a 32-point drubbing against Redcliffe is too wide for Wayne Bennett’s liking.
There should be some points in this one; out wide for the Cowboys and perhaps a little closer to the ruck for a simplified Rabbitohs attack.
Tips
Anytime Try Scorers: Jaxon Purdue @ $2.15, Tom Chester @ $2.55, Peter Mamouzelos @ $7.25, Tevita Tatola @ $8.25
Same Game Multi: Jaxon Purdue Anytime Try + Tom Chester Anytime Try + Peter Mamouzelos Anytime Try + Tevita Tatola Anytime Try @ $242.32