Oscar Pannifex breaks down every game of Round 11 and provides his best betting plays of the weekend.
Cronulla didn’t show up against Souths last week, beaten in the physical battle through the middle before folding on the edges. The Sharks right edge in particular remains an issue for Craig Fitzgibbon and we’d be foolish to expect Canterbury to look anywhere else here.
The question for the Bulldogs is whether their struggling attack can execute on the looks they earn. Matt Burton returns this week and needs to offer more down that left edge while Lachlan Galvin plays the middle.
Tips
Best: Bulldogs 1-12 @ $3.50
Anytime Try Scorer: Bronson Xerri @ $2.80
Same Game Multi: Bulldogs 1-12 + Bronson Xerri Anytime Try @ $8.66
Redcliffe have played themselves into form and it’s coincided with the return of Max Plath, Jeremy Marshall-King and Kurt Donoghue through the middle of the field. The Dolphins have strike in all positions but it’s their role-playing workers that typically have the greatest influence on a result.
Souths have embraced this philosophy better than most in a 6-and-3 start to the year. They know they’ve got points in them but the best version of this Rabbitohs side relishes the dirty work that comes before any highlight reel moment.
Tips
Best: Rabbitohs @ $2.02
Anytime Try Scorers: Tallis Duncan @ $2.65 & Campbell Graham @ $3.20
Same Game Multi: Rabbitohs + Tallis Duncan Anytime Try + Campbell Graham Anytime Try @ $12.26
The FozBall movement continues to gather momentum as this Manly side plays a confident and complementary brand of football. They’ve struck up a nice balance in recent weeks between crashing the middle and hitting the edges where their speed men are having a field day against retreating defenders.
Wests impressed to stop the rot against Melbourne last week and actually win the last 60 minutes of the game. With so many players out, we can expect the Tigers to look clunky but their effort areas have remained consistent in a vote of confidence for Benji Marshall. This might be another stretch too far though.
Tips
Best: Sea Eagles @ $1.33
Anytime Try Scorers: Ben Trbojevic @ $4.25 & Clayton Faulolo @ $2.50
Same Game Multi: Sea Eagles + Ben Trbojevic Anytime Try + Clayton Faulolo Anytime Try @ $11.22
An ankle injury to Tom Dearden threatens to disrupt the Cowboys (and Maroons) 2026 campaign. He plays a crucial role in straightening the attack for Scott Drinkwater to ballplay on the edges in clubland while Jake Clifford has been free to pick his moments from a locked left edge.
While North Queensland adjust without their star halfback, Easts get another chance to work through the gears and rev the engine. James Tedesco, Sam Walker, Daly Cherry-Evans and Reece Robson are all in the Origin spotlight this week and I’m expecting all four to rise to the occasion.
Tips
Best: Roosters 13+ @ $1.73
Anytime Try Scorers: James Tedesco @ $1.68 & Hugo Savala @ $2.05
Same Game Multi: Roosters 13+ + James Tedesco Anytime Try + Hugo Savala Anytime Try @ $4.28
Melbourne broke the streak last week with a lightning 20 minute period right from kickoff. They banked enough early points against Wests to scrap their way through to fulltime but there are still some kinks for Craig Bellamy to iron out, particularly through the middle once fatigue sets in.
How Parramatta handle the emotional comedown of a Golden Point win last week remains to be seen, but I like them to keep this close. Short side defence has been an issue for the Storm so far this year and Mitch Moses is the best half in the game at taking those looks.
Tips
Best: Eels (+6.5) @ $1.96
Anytime Try Scorer: Brian Kelly @ $1.98
Same Game Multi: Eels (+6.5) + Brian Kelly Anytime Try @ $3.19
Newcastle are winning people over with an exciting, attacking brand of footy but the beauty of this Knights team is in its repeatability. A running spine and destructive backline are enjoying plenty of looks behind a hard-working, mobile forward pack that is doing all the little things at a high click. From there, Newcastle’s star trio are creating or taking half chances and turning them into points a few tackles later.
For Josh Hannay, the Gold Coast’s inconsistencies remain a concern. There were some promising signs around Zane Harrison last week and how he might unlock Jayden Campbell in attack, but it’s still a work in progress for this young Titans spine.
Tips
Best: Knights @ $1.33
Anytime Try Scorers: Dylan Brown @ $3.15 & AJ Brimson @ $2.85
Same Game Multi: Knights + Dylan Brown Anytime Try + AJ Brimson Anytime Try @ $11.62
Two premiership heavyweights navigating two very different starts to the regular season.
Brisbane showed their quality to bank consecutive wins without a host of stars but the fatigue has caught up to them in recent weeks. New Zealand on the other hand are reaping the rewards of a very deep and healthy squad right now; so much so that Luke Metcalf is reportedly on the outer.
Assuming that news doesn’t disrupt Andrew Webster’s prep this week, I like the Wahs to win the ruck fresh off the bye. If they do, Wayde Egan can stress middle defenders and create space for his fellow spine players on the edges.
Tips
Best: Warriors @ $1.70
Anytime Try Scorers: Leka Halasima @ $2.35 & Ali Leiataua @ $2.75
Same Game Multi: Warriors + Leka Halasima Anytime Try + Ali Leiataua Anytime Try @ $7.68
St George-Illawarra had a chance to make a statement off the bye last week but didn’t take it. Their edges are still the most vulnerable in the competition right now, largely due to the ease at which the Dragons ruck is folding under pressure. There’s plenty of positives around the Couchman brothers, Hamish Stewart and Dylan Egan but they won’t pay dividends for a while yet…
Penrith appear to be trialling a different attacking system through Nathan Cleary right now and this feels like a chance to iron out the kinks.
Tips
Best: Panthers @ $1.04
Anytime Try Scorers: Paul Alamoti @ $2.10, Casey McLean @ $1.57
2 Or More Tries: Tom Jenkins @ $2.05
Same Game Multi: Panthers + Paul Alamoti Anytime Try + Casey McLean Anytime Try + Tom Jenkins 2+ Tries @ $9.05