Champions Day @ Ellerslie Best Bets | Saturday 7 March

4 Steely Man stuck on gamely for a placing last start and looks well suited stepping back to 1600m, his preferred trip. His return to Ellerslie, the scene of both of his career wins, is another tick, and the wide draw isn’t a concern given he typically settles in the back half of the field. Expect him to be attacking the line strongly late.

6 Origin Of Love has been racing consistently in strong fields in recent starts. The drop back to 1500 metres looks ideal, and with the benefit of a short break, the Snitzel filly profiles as a fresh runner who can figure prominently from a good draw.

3 Tomodachi has had no luck in her past two starts, finishing strongly in the BCD Group Sprint after being held up at a crucial stage, and striking similar trouble in the G1 Telegraph. Third-up from a spell, she should be at peak fitness and ready to produce her best. With clear running at the right time, she’ll be very hard to hold out.

8 Alabama Lass perhaps needed the run when resuming from a four–month spell in the Sistema, fading late after taking up the running out in front. She has since impressed in a subsequent trial and looks set to strip much fitter second-up. The expected firmer footing on Saturday should suit, and she can show sharp improvement.

It is hard to go past the dominant favourite in this, 5 Lara Antipova. The Te Akau filly has been super impressive in all three career starts, winning by big margins. Her most recent win was her best yet. She burnt the candle at both ends on a heavy track and still ran away from the rest of the field. Should be getting her G1 on Saturday. To boost up the dividend, add 2 Harvey Wallbanger to place in a Same Race Multi. $3.90 is great value for Lara Antipova to Win and Harvey Wallbanger Top 3.

Opie Bosson brought up his 100th Group 1 win when he jumped aboard 7 Legarto for the very first time in the Herbie Dyke Stakes last month, and I reckon he can notch up number 101 on her this weekend. The Ken and Bev Kelso-trained mare isn’t the biggest fan of Ellerslie, but having the best in the business in the saddle is a significant plus. 

Australian-trained ex-European 1 Brayden Star charged home in the Avondale Cup, missing by the narrowest of margins. He’ll strip fitter for that first New Zealand outing and this shapes as his main target. With Opie Bosson retaining the ride and a good draw to secure a soft run, he looks a major player

1 That’s Gold produced a brilliant lead-up performance when taking out last month’s G2 Avondale Guineas. He powered home to win by nearly four lengths after doing plenty of work early to cross from a wide draw. With a much better barrier this time, he should enjoy a softer run in transit and have plenty left in reserve for a big finish.

Star filly 3 Well Written has been phenomenal in her first five career starts and is deserving of her $1.20 quote to win The NZB Kiwi. I was particularly taken by the run of 9 Panther in the Uncle Remus Stakes. Despite encountering interference, he attacked the line strongly and with a touch more luck on Saturday, he is capable of finishing inside the top three and adding value around the favourite in Same Race Multis.

5 Sista Sugar’s first three runs back from a spell were outstanding, finishing in the top two on each occasion., and although she finished 7th last time out, she was only a couple of lengths adrift of the winner. The wide gate makes things trickier on Saturday, though she remains a mare in form with an in-form rider in the saddle.