Three trial weekends. That’s all that stands between us and the 2026 NRL season proper, and footy fans are absolutely feasting.
With season previews flooding your feed, we thought we’d do things a little differently for uncle betcha’s blog this week.
Instead of straight rankings, I’ve split the comp into four brackets, Confident, Keen, Splinters and Shaky, based on how well placed each side looks to handle the chaos that is an NRL regular season (and what comes after).
PART 1: CONFIDENT
Part 1 kicks off with the Confident bracket: four heavyweights who shape as genuine players in the 2026 Premiership race…
Penrith Panthers
Premiers $6 | Top 4 $1.83
Dead last after Round 12. Two points short of a Grand Final.
That was the 2025 Penrith experience.
After a summer of major personnel change, Ivan Cleary steered this side through one of the most turbulent periods in the club’s recent history. The slow start wasn’t shocking, but the recovery? That was classic Panthers.
The systems remain elite. The standards don’t budge. And with the best halfback in the game pulling the strings, Penrith look primed to launch again.
What should worry the rest of the comp is how quickly their “next men up” became genuine contributors.
Twelve months ago, Liam Henry was a fringe first grader chasing minutes. Now he’s an inaugural Perth Bears signing, proof of how effectively Penrith develop and elevate their depth.
Same story with Blaize Talagi, Casey McLean, Paul Alamoti and Isaiah Papali’i. Early-season question marks turned into late-season answers. By the end of the finals series, they were central to everything Penrith did well.
Expect the pattern to repeat.
No club integrates developing players into defined, complementary roles quite like the Panthers. And while Origin will test their depth again, history says Cleary will uncover another perfectly engineered system piece.
The one caveat? There’s no replacing Nathan Cleary or Isaah Yeo if they’re sidelined. Jack Cogger is steady insurance, but the spine depth isn’t quite what it has been in previous years.
Still, injuries permitting, Penrith aren’t going anywhere. September remains very much on the table.
Sydney Roosters
Premiers $7 | Top 4 $2.50
Quick history lesson: what happened the last time Easts brought in an elite veteran half?
Exactly.
With James Tedesco, Daly Cherry-Evans, Sam Walker, Reece Robson and Connor Watson, the Roosters arguably boast the most established spine in the NRL. Add Hugo Savala and Benaia Ioelu to the mix and the depth chart looks just as healthy.
The DCE–Walker partnership may take time to fully hum, but the Roosters won’t lack platform. Their forward rotation is stacked, the backline is experienced, and Robson’s arrival gives them a genuine organising presence at dummy-half.
Watson shifting to lock frees Victor Radley to return to the edge, where he’s at his disruptive best defensively. His ability to compress, slide and double-defend should tidy up the vulnerability Easts showed on their right edge last year.
Through the middle, Naufahu Whyte and Blake Steep took real steps in 2025. And if Egan Butcher finally lands the breakout season many expect, this pack goes to another level again.
The Trent Robinson formula is simple: be relevant in September.
Given the class, balance and experience here, relevant might just turn into something more.
Brisbane Broncos
Premiers $5 | Top 4 $1.60
I said during the 2025 previews that Michael Maguire at Red Hill made me nervous.
I didn’t expect the turnaround to happen that quickly.
Injuries. Off-field noise. System changes. Staff reshuffles. Identity reset. Madge navigated all of it, and still delivered silverware.
The obvious question? Shelf life.
It followed him out of Redfern and will inevitably resurface. With Adam Reynolds and Ben Hunt another year older, the noise won’t disappear entirely.
But here’s the counterpunch: Brisbane’s depth is real.
Corey Paix, Hayze Perham, Billy Walters, Blake Mozer, Josh Rogers and Tom Duffy give them flexibility across key positions. And we saw in the 2025 Grand Final that when Reynolds went down, the Broncos didn’t.
Payne Haas remains a one-man wrecking crew. Reece Walsh is box-office. Around them, Maguire has built a squad of high-output role players who understand their jobs.
Xavier Willison, Ezra Mam, Gehamat Shibasaki, Josiah Karapani, Kotoni Staggs. They’re no longer just “young talent.” They’re proven contributors.
Brisbane can grind you down. They can run you off the park. And now they enter 2026 with a target on their back, exactly where they want to be.
The Hunters are now the Hunted.
No signs yet they’re slowing.
New Zealand Warriors
Premiers $23 | Top 4 $5
If you’ve followed this blog, you already know, I’m firmly in Andrew Webster’s corner.
When Luke Metcalf and Mitch Barnett went down last season, plenty were ready to jump ship. I wasn’t.
The 8–24 finals loss to Penrith and the 4–8 second-half record don’t tell the full story. This side competed through adversity. They defended errors. They absorbed pressure. They refused to fold.
That’s identity.
The key early in 2025? Luke Metcalf.
Before injury, he was the difference-maker with eight tries and nine assists in 15 games. While the Wahs were winning territory the hard way, Metcalf was turning half-chances into points.
His return is enormous.
Yes, the sample size is modest. But across 41 NRL games, the signs are clear: he’s the half that best complements this roster.
Behind him, Tannah Boyd and Te Maire Martin give them elite NSW Cup depth. Outside him sits an experienced backline. In front of him? One of the competition’s most reliable forward packs.
Add Mount Smart’s fortress-like edge and a team that simply doesn’t beat itself, the Wahs look well placed to outperform market expectations again.
Don’t sleep on them.
PART 2: KEEN
For Part 2 (Keen), we’re looking at the next tier — clubs who I believe can feature prominently in the 2026 NRL Premiership race.
The Dolphins
Premiers $21 | Top 4 $4
It’s no secret the Dolphins enter 2026 with a deep and well-balanced squad.
A brutal injury toll denied Redcliffe what would’ve been an historic finals appearance last year, but Kristian Woolf’s side look well positioned to go one better.
How Herbie Farnworth, Tom Gilbert, Max Plath and Tom Flegler return from injury will go a long way toward shaping this campaign.
Farnworth is coming off a career-best season as one of the NRL’s most productive outside backs (serious Joey Manu energy), and now links up with Selwyn Cobbo, who arrives chasing a reset. Through the middle, Gilbert, Plath and Flegler add genuine competition to an already well-balanced rotation.
In the spine, Kurt Donoghue’s steady development provides coverage across multiple key roles alongside new recruit Brad Schneider. But make no mistake, this Dolphins attack revolves around Isaiya Katoa.
With strike weapons around him and the ideal fullback to complement his tempo and deception, Katoa is well placed to build on his breakout 2025 campaign and further cement himself as a premier half in the NRL.
A maiden finals appearance feels like a logical next step.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Premiers $13 | Top 4 $3.30
Defence still wins premierships, and Canterbury have produced some of the NRL’s most effective defensive systems across the past two seasons.
Their smaller, mobile forward model is quickly becoming the modern blueprint: relentless line speed, minimal time and space for opposition attacks, and enough skill through the middle to shift play to the edges.
How Leo Thompson fits into that system will be fascinating. On paper, he adds a genuine point of difference in size and power, something this pack arguably lacked. At 25, with 80 first-grade games under his belt, he’s entering his prime. Expectations in Belmore will be high.
One likely beneficiary of that added platform is Bailey Hayward, who appears set to step into a full-time hooking role. His tempo and deception around the ruck should give Canterbury’s attack a slightly different look and allow them to ask more direct questions through the middle.
From there, though, it’s about Lachlan Galvin.
He profiles as the modern on-ball, triple-threat half — pass, run and kick — with the ability to stress defensive lines in multiple ways. Often the damage he causes won’t show up as an assist, but it will be the catalyst.
Game management will take time. There will be highs and learning moments.
But it feels like the Bulldogs have surrounded him with enough structure to give him every chance of success in 2026.
Melbourne Storm
Premiers $7 | Top 4 $1.90
Ryan Papenhuyzen, Nelson Asofa-Solomona and now Eli Katoa, Melbourne have some significant changes to manage this year.
The departures of Papenhuyzen and Katoa in particular are major watches, given how central they were to the Storm’s attacking shape last season.
Injuries may have taken a fraction of Papi’s top-end speed, but his positional play and ball distribution from the “jockey” position remained elite. Even the threat of his pace forced edge defenders into hesitation, and Papenhuyzen was good enough to capitalise with a pass at speed.
We know Sua Fa’alogo brings raw pace. The question is whether he offers the same ballplaying layer Melbourne have relied on for so long.
Then there’s Katoa’s output on the right edge — arguably Melbourne’s most consistent attacking contributor in 2025. How they replace that strike will be key. Souths fans will be hoping it’s not Davvy Moale, while Jack Hetherington shapes as another intriguing watch.
There may not be the depth we’ve traditionally associated with Melbourne, but at full strength, a spine of Harry Grant, Jahrome Hughes and Cameron Munster ensures the Storm remain firmly in the September conversation.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Premiers $21 | Top 4 $4
Alright, maybe there’s a hint of bias here. A touch of hope. But stay with me.
Statistically, South Sydney are coming off one of the most injury-ravaged two-year stretches in NRL history. With even slightly better fortune on that front, improvement should follow.
A fit Cameron Murray changes everything. Souths’ middle struggled under fatigue and pressure last season. Murray’s influence around the ruck, defensively and in link play, is enormous.
In attack, he connects the ruck to the edges, particularly the left, where Latrell Mitchell remains one of the most difficult one-on-one matchups in the game. Cody Walker may be edging into the latter stages of his career, but stronger threats around him should only create more space for his creativity.
That said, questions remain.
Souths once again begin a season without a settled halfback. Jamie Humphries (suspended two games), Bud Sullivan and Jonah Glover will all vie to partner Walker, and clarity there will matter.
Jye Gray’s emergence was a genuine positive in 2025, but does he possess the ballplaying polish to consistently ice the chances created out wide? I’m not convinced we’ve seen the last of Mitchell in the No.1 jersey, though Gray shapes as the early frontrunner.
With depth across the park and added go-forward in the form of David Fifita, South Sydney look capable of bouncing back and beginning their climb up the ladder.
PART 3: SPLINTERS
Part 3 (Splinters) is exactly what it sounds like. Five clubs that have me firmly on the fence, previewing the 2026 Premiership race with splinters in my backside.
Cronulla Sharks
Premiers $19 | Top 4 $3.50
It’s only trials and we’re still in February, but it might be time to start asking questions about this Cronulla roster.
The biggest forward rotation in the NRL is a nightmare when rolling downhill. The issue? The modern game keeps speeding up, and Cronulla’s pack remains something of an outlier.
The emergence of Billy Burns, Jesse Colquhoun and the return of Cameron McInnes should help tighten things around the ruck, but it’s an area worth monitoring.
One thing working in Cronulla’s favour is stability. Few sides have been as consistent in recent seasons, and that’s no coincidence given how settled their spine is.
Combinations and cohesion are still underrated in rugby league. In Will Kennedy, Nicho Hynes, Braydon Trindall and Blayke Brailey, the Sharks have a quartet that understands its roles. For all the noise around Kennedy, his support play and timing perfectly complement a scheming hooker like Brailey and a ball-dominant half in Hynes.
That said, I see Trindall as the barometer.
Entering his seventh first-grade season, he looked sharp in the Indigenous All Stars clash and shapes as a genuine point of difference in what can otherwise become a predictable Sharks attack.
The tired Hynes discourse will resurface if Cronulla wobble. But for mine, how far they go in 2026 may hinge more on Trindall than anyone else.
Parramatta Eels
Premiers $21 | Top 4 $4.50
The Jason Ryles sample size is growing, and the early indicators are encouraging.
It hasn’t taken long for Parramatta to establish their identity. This pack is fit, aggressive and well balanced, equal parts workhorse, power and ball skill. Where previous Eels outfits could drift sideways, this group looks intent on winning the ruck first and striking after.
The spine suits that approach.
Isaiah Iongi working predominantly down the right, Jonah Pezet shaping and organising on the left, and Mitchell Moses free to conduct, it opens the field up in ways Parramatta haven’t consistently achieved in recent seasons.
Jharal Yow-Yeh made the bold call on the Neds NRL Unpopular Opinions Podcast last week, tipping Moses for the 2026 Dally M… and I’m not arguing.
Whether Parramatta have the ceiling to match the true heavyweights remains unclear. Whether that ultimately matters to this group is another question entirely.
With a bit of luck, this feels like a side capable of causing a few headaches in 2026.
Wests Tigers
Premiers $41 | Top 4 $13
For the first time in a while, the Tigers enter a season with something close to a settled best 17.
A spine of Api Koroisau, Jarome Luai, Adam Doueihi and Jahream Bula won’t headline “best in the comp” debates, but there’s genuine upside here.
Kai Pearce-Paul rounds out a legitimate starting back row alongside the emerging Samuela Fainu. His offloading and presence at the line pair nicely with Doueihi’s direct style. There’s potential for some highlight-reel moments.
Through the middle, Koroisau steers the ship, with Luai and Doueihi working the edges. At 33, Api’s leadership looms large in what remains a relatively raw squad. His direction through the grind will matter.
On paper, Benji Marshall has assembled enough of the right pieces to set up Bula for a breakout 2026.
I’m bullish on Bula’s trajectory. Stability around him — in the spine, the pack and the backline — should only accelerate that development.
North Queensland Cowboys
Premiers $34 | Top 4 $8
Regular readers know I’ve been tough on the Cowboys lately.
An ageing, slower forward pack and an inconsistent backline were major red flags heading into 2025. What I underestimated was Tom Dearden.
Right now, he’s arguably among the very best halves in the game. Last season he dragged North Queensland away from Wooden Spoon territory, and he may need to do something similar again.
Heilum Luki looks sharp in his return, while Reed Mahoney could end up one of the buys of the year (credit to Liam Fogarty for that call), even if he represents a downgrade from Reece Robson in pure output.
Depth, however, remains a concern. Injuries, suspensions or Origin duties could quickly expose this roster.
Pressure is building on Todd Payten to find the right formula, particularly in the halves alongside Dearden, and his price in the “first coach sacked” market reflects that.
All that said, there are enough points in this Cowboys attack, as we saw in the trials, to make me look foolish for doubting them again.
St George-Illawarra Dragons
Premiers $51 | Top 4 $15
As a Shane Flanagan believer, I tend to lean optimistic with this Dragons side.
In a short period, he’s overseen the departure of established talent while blooding a wave of younger prospects. That level of turnover was always going to bring growing pains, but there are signs the trajectory is positive.
The forward pack is mobile and hard-working, and they won’t beat themselves. The question is whether there’s enough punch through the middle to shift momentum when it’s needed most.
And is there sufficient strike in an ageing backline paired with an inexperienced, still-settling halves combination?
Daniel Atkinson offers upside, but one new face doesn’t instantly transform an attack. Time and clarity will be required. There were promising signs last week, particularly through Luciano Leilua distributing on what could become a dangerous left edge when it clicks.
Narrow losses and grinding wins defined 2025, and if the Charity Shield is any guide, that pattern may continue.
With that in mind, the scoreboard alone won’t tell the full story of this Dragons side in 2026.
PART 4: SHAKY
Coming soon…