With three weeks to go in the NFL season and the divisional round on the horizon, in my opinion this shapes as the most exciting final eight teams we have seen in a long time.
With that being the case, I am eager to get stuck into another slate of NFL football and as we always do try find some punting value in the games.
Best Head-to-Head Bet
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When looking at this heavyweight bout, from a rest point of view the Broncos have the leg up, having earned a first-round bye by owning the number one seed heading into the playoffs. Another major positive for the Broncos is their elite defence, which for me is second only to the Houston Texans in the league. Outside of that, this marks Bo Nix’s second trip to the playoffs, and after last year’s early exit, I would expect him to be searching for some form of redemption.
Looking at the other side of this matchup, the Bills have one clear headliner, and that is the best quarterback remaining in the playoffs, Josh Allen, at the helm. The reigning MVP has taken his side to multiple AFC Championship games and other high-stakes matchups, where they have ultimately fallen short against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
For Allen, his roster is nowhere near as talented as the Broncos’, but with the difference he can make when he goes supernova, along with his playoff experience, I am leaning towards the Bills to claim this one on the Road.
Best Anytime Touchdown Scorer
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Moving into our touchdown scorer bet, my mind went straight to Christian McCaffrey for this week. I understand the 49ers might be heavy underdogs entering this matchup with the Seahawks, but I still expect their offence to make some noise during the game.
If that is the case, the man who will be at the heart of their ball movement and red-zone production is their all-world running back, Christian McCaffrey. He is not only the best weapon they have on the ground but, with George Kittle out, is likely also their best route runner, which should benefit him by creating plenty of opportunities to find the end zone.
It is not just the potential opportunities that excite me about McCaffrey. We also know he is elite at making the most of his chances, as he has scored six times in his last five games. For me, it is easy to see why this trend could continue, given his increased role and the calibre of player he is.
Best Prop Bet
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One player who has been a constant in our work in recent weeks is rookie tight end Colston Loveland. As mentioned previously, he had a slow start to his NFL career, but in the second half of the season he has looked every bit a top 10 overall pick.
His pedigree came to the forefront last week, as in his playoff debut he and his quarterback, Caleb “Iceman” Williams, showed they have one of the brightest connections in the league between passer and catcher.
What has made him so effective is, firstly, his ability to run routes that players his size are rarely able to execute. Couple that route running and football IQ with having one of the most creative minds in the NFL scheming him open in Ben Johnson, I am not worried that this is against the Rams. I still think Loveland can feast over the middle of the field.
Best Same Game Multi
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This game will be dictated by how the defences operate on the day, and with the way DeMeco Ryans has the three levels working in harmony, I would expect Drake Maye to be willing to check the ball down early and often. What makes me feel this could be even more likely is the patience he showed against the Chargers, which saw Rhamondre Stevenson get some opportunities in the passing game. If that was the case against the Chargers, you would expect Maye to lean on Stevenson again in this one.
With defence set to be a key theme in this matchup, the next leg has the game going under 40.5 points. This is no disrespect to either offence or the talent on display, but with both sides boasting good to great defensive units, I struggle to see this one playing out much differently from the Patriots versus Chargers game script.
The final leg of this multi may come as a surprise, as many will expect the Patriots to run away with this one at home. In all honesty, with Drake Maye’s inexperience in playoff situations, combined with facing an elite Texans defensive unit, there could be some growing pains on display. That is exactly how the Texans stay competitive in games and ultimately win them, which is why I have them covering the spread.
- Rhamondre Stevenson 3+ Receptions @ $1.42
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Under 40.5 Total Points @ $1.90
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Houston Texans (+3) @ $2.00
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