The NFL season is coming to a screeching halt, and this weekend signals the second to last round of football we will see for the next nine months or so. As much as that sucks, because it is likely one of the greatest leagues on earth, we still have a job to get done.
That job is once again to find some value in these two games and hopefully come away with a few winners. For us here, it is a bounce back weekend after the divisional round was not our best work, meaning it is time to really lock in.
One of the last combinations for the AFC Championship game that I would have selected at the start of the season, with these two teams really making dramatic jumps in their respective stages of retooling their franchises. The Broncos and Patriots are two old school football teams who have championship calibre defences, while also possessing crafty offences that have allowed them to reach this stage of the season with only four teams remaining.
When diving into a Same Game Multi, I am looking towards a key cog in the Denver offence now that Bo Nix is out, and that is RJ Harvey. The rookie back has had his moments this season without anything spectacular, but now with his starting quarterback sidelined, Sean Payton is going to have to get creative and provide opportunities to players who may not be used to this level of volume. At the top of the list for me is Harvey, who should see more chances in the run game early and often with Nix missing the rest of the year.
Moving onto the total, I do not think this one will be high scoring. While both of these teams have shown the capability to put up big scores, with a backup quarterback under centre and the freezing weather in Denver, points could be at a premium.
Closing out the AFC Championship game, I have the Patriots going on the road and getting the job done in the Mile High City, and doing so in a comfortable fashion. I really respect what Sean Payton and the Broncos have achieved this year, but taking on one of the most well drilled teams in the NFL without your franchise quarterback feels like a step too far, even at home.
- RJ Harvey 30+ Rushing Yards @ $1.33
- Total Points Under 42.5 @ $1.90
- Patriots (-4.5) @ $1.87
The NFC Championship game is the better of the two in my mind, and personally I think this game is going to be prime time viewing. The third game in this season series only has to live up to 80 percent of the first two to be an instant classic. Both sides have been red hot all season, and with the teams’ records split at 1–1 so far this year, it is set to be a doozy.
When leading off this one, I have another running back lined up, and this time it is the Rams’ lead back, Kyren Williams. A lot of the plaudits for the Rams’ success should be given to McVay and Stafford, but Kyren Williams, since being drafted out of Notre Dame, has been one of the better runners in the league. With value in him to run for over half a century yards, which he has done in his last five games, that is the first leg in this one.
Back to the total market, this time rather than the unders, we will take the overs. Between the two teams, they have been among the more high powered offences in the league, which in these big games in the past have shown they come to play. With that said, I think both coaches will be aggressive, and we could see the scoreboard constantly being added to throughout this game.
I have had a hunch all season long about the Rams, and a lot of it has to do with them being the best run organisation in the league from the top down. Personally, I think they have what it takes to go all the way, and even if the Seahawks have been the side to cause them issues all year, I think with the championship DNA this core has, they could very well get it done on Monday.
- Kyren Williams 50+ Rushing Yards @ $1.63
- Over 46.5 Total Points @ $1.90
- Rams To Win @ $2.25