The NFL regular season is hitting its penultimate stage this weekend as we head into Week 17, which is generally a decisive point for playoff bids and seeding. This year is no different, with multiple teams able to control their own destiny while others are relying on results elsewhere to keep their season alive.
While that is all well and good, we are here to find value in some of the biggest matchups of the week as we dive into our second to last preview of the regular season.
The Texans will be taking on the Chargers in what is essentially a playoff game, given the quality of both teams and the ramifications it could have on seeding come wildcard weekend.
Looking at the recent form of both sides, the Texans went from a team that were major underperformers during the early portions of the season to a side on a red hot run, winning their last five games. The Chargers have been a consistent performer for the majority of the season, thanks to the play of their quarterback Justin Herbert, who has carried them to the position they are in heading into the penultimate weekend.
When examining this matchup, I think the biggest weakness is the Chargers’ makeshift offensive line against the Texans’ defensive front. From top to bottom, the Texans have arguably the best defensive unit in the league, led by their elite pass rush duo of Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter, who wreak havoc from a wide stance.
If that duo and the rest of the unit are able to do their jobs, I can see it being a long day for the Chargers, who will need an elite level performance from Herbert if they are to get the job done at home.
The Baltimore Ravens were preseason Super Bowl favourites at some sportsbooks, but between underperforming and Lamar Jackson’s injuries, they are now fighting for a chance to even make the playoffs this weekend against the Packers. Green Bay, on the other hand, have been relatively solid this year, but with Micah Parsons out for the season, their playoff chances have certainly been dampened.
That said, this is still a huge game, and I expect the stars to come out to play.
- Total Over 40.5 @ $1.90
- Green Bay -4.5 @ $1.90
Looking at this one, there are early reports that Jordan Love could be back from the concussion protocol by game time and should be ready to go against a fairly poor Ravens pass defence. With the way they are set up, the Packers should be able to execute a few plays they like while targeting big shots down the field. On the other hand, if Lamar Jackson is able to suit up with his back injury, I would expect the Ravens to come out swinging. That said, keep an eye on the news reports, because if Lamar is out, I am not quite as bullish on this one.
That said, I do think that across the board, from players to coaching, the Packers are simply the better team. With playoff seeding on the line at home and a favourable matchup, I give the Packers to cover in the second leg of the multi.
The teams in this one will no doubt be keeping an eye on the Ravens vs Packers game, because if the away side lose, the Steelers will have clinched the AFC North before even taking the field in Cleveland. This means that if results go their way, the game could become a dead rubber for the Steelers and lose some of the intensity these two sides usually bring.
For Cleveland, they are really just going through the motions at this point, but will still likely find some motivation to try and ruin the party for a fierce division rival when given the chance this weekend.
- Harold Fannin 40+ Receiving Yards @ $1.55
- Jaylen Warren Anytime Touchdown @ $3.40
- Aaron Rodgers 175+ Passing Yards @ $1.58
When it comes to the Browns’ offence, the most consistent player has been rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr, who has quickly become one of the better contributors at the position in the league. What also helps Fannin is that he tends to be the safety valve for Shedeur Sanders, so against a ferocious Steelers front he should see plenty of yards after catch opportunities.
Moving over to the other team, the Steelers have found an offensive identity in recent weeks centred around their two running backs. The power option of the pair is UDFA Jaylen Warren, who has scored five touchdowns in his last five games. While the Browns have a strong defensive front, it does seem like a priority in the red zone to give Warren the chance to score with his powerful running style.
To close this one out, we turn to the 42 year old future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, who has no doubt been the best quarterback the Steelers have had since Ben Roethlisberger and has gone over 220 passing yards in his past three games. I am willing to dial that line back slightly to 175+, but I think that with the heavy personnel the Steelers like to deploy, even without DK Metcalf, there will still be opportunities for some deep shots downfield.
Two 11-4 sides battle it out on Sunday Night Football as Ben Johnson and the Chicago Bears travel to the West Coast to take on the scorching San Francisco 49ers, who are now very much in the Super Bowl discussion.
Like many other games this week, this one will begin to determine major playoff seedings across the league, and for either side that comes away with the win, it will show they are truly ready to enter the post-season.
- George Kittle Anytime Touchdown @ $2.10
- Brock Purdy Over 260.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88
- Kyle Monangai 40+ Rushing Yards @ $1.68
We are getting back to the well this week, as we did take this play last time out, but the best pass catcher on the 49ers, George Kittle, has certainly benefited from Brock Purdy’s return to action. The all-pro calibre tight end has scored four times in his last five games and will no doubt be liking his chances to do so again in front of a rocking Levi’s Stadium.
Looking at Kittle’s quarterback, Brock Purdy has come back from injury and, as I have discussed, brought some serious swagger to the 49ers’ offence. With his newfound confidence and the way Kyle Shanahan is dialing up play calls, Purdy has been given outstanding opportunities to make deep to intermediate throws. Against a Bears defence that is a little susceptible to the pass, this could see some decent returns for Purdy.
The last leg of this one is Chicago’s rookie running back Kyle Monangai, who has become the change of pace back to D’Andre Swift this season. With the season getting colder and the run game being relied upon more down the stretch by Ben Johnson, I would be surprised to see a wide split between the two Bears backs.
To close this one out, we have our pick for Monday Night Football in Week 17 of the NFL season. The game will take place at Mercedes Benz Stadium, the home of the Atlanta Falcons, as they host a fired up Los Angeles Rams side coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Seahawks last time out.
As we have mentioned before, when big games appear on the schedule, coaches ensure their best players get plenty of touches. For the Rams, they of course have MVP favourite Matthew Stafford, but one of the biggest problems in the league for any opposing defence is his number one target, Puka Nacua.
The third year pro has taken the league by storm, and without being the biggest or fastest receiver in the competition, Puka continues to win, and win often. This has been evident in his past three games, where he has gone over 167 yards in all of them, including a remarkable 225 yards against Seattle.
With the division crown still in sight, a big win on Monday Night Football would mean a lot to this Rams franchise, and if that is to happen, I expect Nacua to be right at the heart of it.