Here we are, with three weeks left in the NFL season, and teams are starting to fall out of playoff contention while others are fighting to keep their postseason dreams alive. With that said, we are back to break down some of the biggest matchups of the Week 16 slate, while also finding some value in the games.
As the road gets even narrower, each game means more than ever. So strap in, because we could be in for an explosive weekend of football.
What an absolute ripper to have on our screens come Friday afternoon, with two of the best teams in the NFL set to duke it out in prime time football for divisional supremacy. When looking at the two sides, I am a firm believer in who the Los Angeles Rams are, and have been since the preseason. I think Sean McVay is the best coach in the league, and he has the perfect quarterback to operate his offence in Matthew Stafford. As for the Seahawks, yes, they have an explosive offence, but what is most daunting when taking them on is their defensive unit, led by head coach Mike Macdonald.
The game itself has major playoff ramifications, as with a win either team can control their own destiny by winning out and taking the division crown, while also being the favourite to earn a first-round bye.
So who is going to step up in what is basically a playoff game come Thursday Night Football? That is where I back the best coach and the MVP favourite to take over the game for the Los Angeles Rams and ensure their team gets over the line on the road in front of the formidable 12th Man of the Seahawks.
The NFC North has been one of the most scintillating divisions to watch in all of football this year, with the Bears and Packers setting the pace for most of the season. Now, as we enter December, the weather is set to be cold and it will be time to play some real old-school game scripts. That idea suits both outfits, as head coaches Matt LaFleur and Ben Johnson love to get under centre, run the ball, and use play action to take their deep shots.
- Colston Loveland Anytime Touchdown @ $2.90
- Caleb Williams Over 214.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88
- Josh Jacobs Over 71.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.88
After a slow start to his rookie season, the 10th overall pick, Colston Loveland, has quickly become one of the key players in Ben Johnson’s offence over the past few weeks. Loveland is now showing his excellent route running, while also being a strong red zone threat, which is why I can see him finding the end zone this week.
Moving on to his quarterback, Caleb Williams is growing right before our eyes over the second half of the season, as he looks extremely comfortable in the Ben Johnson offence now. While he did go under this in the last game against the Packers, with Micah Parsons out I expect Williams to have more time in the pocket and should be able to hit some of those deep play action passes.
The last leg of our same game multi for this one is Josh Jacobs, who is built for these kinds of tough matchups in the cold. Jacobs is a physical runner who gets better as the game wears on. Add in the fact Jordan Love had a tough outing last week, and I would expect the Packers to lean on the run a bit more in this one.
There are no doubt bigger games on the Monday morning slate, but I think this one is primed to be where some serious value could lie. As we know, the Titans are once again set to be in the top five of the NFL Draft come April, and all they are fighting for is their jobs, along with hopefully some progression from their young talent. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are in uncharted territory, having already been ruled out of the playoffs and even losing Patrick Mahomes to an ACL injury. The question is how the Chiefs will respond to this adversity down the stretch, and whether it could present an opportunity for the Titans to put on a show for their home fans.
- Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown @ 2.65
- Total Points Under 40.5 @ $1.60
- Titans To Win @ $2.45
If there is one thing I know about the Chiefs’ offence, it is that there are two consistencies. The first is Patrick Mahomes, who is now out, and the other is Kareem Hunt’s effectiveness in short-yardage situations and in the low red zone. With Minshew set to have the ball in his hands, I would assume Andy Reid, if given the opportunity, will provide Hunt with chances to break the plane.
While that might be the case, I do not think the Chiefs offence will be anywhere near the level we have seen with Mahomes. With the Titans lack of help provided to Cam Ward, it would be a surprise to see them light up the scoreboard, meaning the alternate total seems like a good addition to the multi.
To round this one out, I am swinging for the fences, because the NFL is a league where, when there is blood in the water, the sharks come out to feast. I am not saying the Titans are a great white shark, but with the Chiefs in the mess they are in, why could a conference rival not make the most of that opportunity?
Both teams here have genuinely everything to fight for down the home stretch of the regular season, with the Baltimore Ravens looking to stay in the race for the AFC North, while the Patriots are in hot pursuit of the AFC East crown. For the Ravens, they are coming off a get-right game against the Bengals. However, they are still a shell of what we thought they might have been, while on the other side, the Patriots have been a pleasant surprise for most of the season under their new head coach, Mike Vrabel.
Now with the two sides clashing in Week 16, it will no doubt be must watch TV come Monday afternoon.
- Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown @ $1.75
- Total Points Over 48 @ $1.90
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When games start to have major playoff ramifications, teams begin to rely more and more on their superstar players. In this one, look no further than Derrick Henry, who will aim to wind back the clock come Sunday Night Football. He is also coming up against a Patriots defence that gave up three touchdowns to James Cook last week, so give me Henry to get in for six.
Moving on to a total points bet, based on recent matches these teams have been involved in, points have not been an issue for either side, while stopping points has been more of a problem. With the two quarterbacks being some of the best in the league, in a game with plenty at stake, I expect both teams to throw their fastball early and often in this one.
While that is the case, and the odds currently have the Ravens as the favourites for Sunday Night, I still can’t get past the fact that I don’t think they are a very good football team at this point in the season. They could prove me wrong in these last three games, but for now, I have the Patriots at least covering the spread.
The last game will be the much-anticipated second outing of Philip Rivers remarkable comeback to the league after being retired for five years. He was thrown into the fire last weekend against the Seahawks and looked, what I would describe as, fine without being spectacular. He was able to play point guard, getting the ball out on time, not taking any sacks and giving his playmakers the room to operate, but the issue was pushing the ball down the field.
One man who did not have that trouble was 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, who last week got his swagger back and now looks poised for a playoff run with his offensive weapons back and ready to roll. Of those weapons the one who sticks out the most to me in this one is George Kittle, who with his elite blocking prowess, is the perfect play-action tight end in the Kyle Shanahan offence. This is because, more often than not, Kittle is able to sell like he is going to be in line blocking and then leak out to make a play in the passing game.
Where this is most dangerous is in the red zone, which is backed up by the fact Kittle has four touchdowns in his last five outings. Personally, I would not be surprised to see him add another to the tally in primetime.