Righto, here we are for yet another week of sporting action across the globe. If you have been following our work over the past while, you will already be familiar with our Early Bird Betting article.
This week, however, we are switching things up slightly. Instead of focusing on games right in front of our noses, we are taking a longer range approach and trying to strike some value from a distance. Think of it like predicting a long-range weather forecast. There is a bit more uncertainty involved, but that is where the opportunity for extra value lies.
So, without further ado, let’s crack into it.
Premier League midweek action is back, and we are certainly looking to make the most of it a few days out. The match that has caught my eye is a clash between a resurgent Liverpool side and Leeds, who despite their lack of resources, have been putting up a very competitive fight.
Looking at the tale of the tape, Liverpool are clear favourites at home. They come into this one off three straight wins and are finally starting to look like the side many expected after their record-shattering transfer window. Leeds, on the other hand, endured a tough start to the season but have found their feet in recent weeks. They are unbeaten in their last five Premier League matches, picking up a couple of important wins along the way.
When analysing this matchup, there appears to be limited value in the outright result, as most would expect Liverpool to take care of business even at this early stage. Instead, the value may lie in the total goals market. Liverpool have scored multiple goals in recent outings, while Leeds have also found the back of the net in the majority of their past few games.
If you think both sides can continue their current run of form, backing over 2.5 goals looks like a solid play for this fixture.
The NFL regular season is coming to a head this weekend, and one of the biggest matchups on the slate is a classic AFC North showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens.
After Week 16 went the Ravens way with a win over the Packers, and the Steelers somehow slipped up against a three-win Browns side, this matchup has now become a winner-takes-all affair. The big question for us is how this game might unfold come Monday afternoon, as we look to find some extra value in the odds before the injury reports fully take shape.
The major storyline surrounding this game is the fitness of Ravens star quarterback Lamar Jackson. Jackson is dealing with a back injury sustained a couple of weeks ago, which forced Tyler Huntley into the lineup as Baltimore fights to keep its season alive. On the Steelers’ side, the key injury to monitor is defensive superstar TJ Watt, who has missed the past three games after suffering a punctured lung.
From a long-term perspective, I lean towards the Steelers, given the uncertainty surrounding Jackson’s availability and fitness. Add in the fact that the game will be played in the Steel City, where the atmosphere will feel very much like playoff football, and the home-field advantage becomes even more significant.
For now, I am backing the home underdog Steelers to get the job done this weekend and secure themselves a playoff berth.
The Ashes series is essentially over, but there is still pride and World Test Championship points on the table. Both teams will have plenty to play for when they meet in the fifth Test of the series at the heralded SCG.
The appeal of this matchup is that England finally have some momentum on their side, having managed to win the Boxing Day Test in somewhat dominant fashion. They rolled the home side twice, with their Bazball approach blasting them to victory.
Australia’s bowling attack is expected to remain depleted, with Pat Cummins unavailable and Nathan Lyon potentially sidelined. That could leave the attack vulnerable to a damaging England batting performance. The linchpin of that order, in my mind, is middle order maestro Harry Brook, who played a pivotal role across both innings in Melbourne as England got over the line for the first time in 15 years in Australia.
Throughout this series, Brook has produced several promising starts without truly putting Australia to the sword. Personally, as I have stated multiple times, I believe he can be the best in the world on any given day. Based on the positive signs we saw in Melbourne, I can see Brook producing a big first-innings knock before the pitch begins to break up.
