US Basketball Best Bets Archive

Coming off a win last time out, we look to go back to back this week. Once again, we are going to rely on another young star guard in the league, with Houston’s Amen Thompson quickly taking the next step to stardom.

In this matchup against Minnesota, he might not have to follow Ant around all game, meaning he will have more energy to use on the offensive side of the ball. With that in mind, I can see him filling up the stat sheet in this one.

Looking to get off the ground with a win for the week, we move to one of the most exciting players to watch across the league in LaMelo Ball. The youngest of the three brothers has had his worst season statistically since his rookie year but has started to turn it up in the box score over recent weeks.

With that being the case, entering this one against a rather average Sacramento team, Ball should have the opportunity to stuff the stat sheet as the lead playmaker of his Charlotte side.

Los Angeles head into Detroit looking to make it nine wins on the bounce, with plenty of those wins coming off the back of Luka Doncic playing some otherworldly basketball. He has consistently shown up over the past month and is really putting the pressure on in the MVP race.

Against Detroit, without Cade Cunningham, Doncic should look to take this one over early. Based on his recent performances, he has been able to start quickly, which should bode well for this one.

Detroit have been one of the best sides this season, but with their superstar guard Cade Cunningham set to miss an extended period of time with a collapsed lung, they will need to find a way to generate buckets without their heliocentric star.

I am sure they will work something out, but for their first game since the news against Washington tonight, you could expect some kind of negative ramifications on their performance. For that reason, I think Washington can keep this one closer than expected and could find themselves covering the spread.

We have a repeat fixture this week, with Los Angeles completing a two-game swing against Houston at home. The first game of the series saw Los Angeles win 100-92 in a professional performance, but I do question whether they can beat the same team twice in a row during a regular season series. Add in the fact that Houston were well and truly in this one throughout Tuesday’s game, and that should bode well for their chances in the repeat fixture.archive

We are on the hunt for more value this Wednesday afternoon, and after landing a win yesterday, the hope is that the momentum rolls on. Rather than going for the game result this time around, we have zeroed in on a player prop surrounding Indiana forward Kobe Brown.

Brown is a bit of a jack of all trades, master of none right now in his young career, but one thing he does play with is plenty of tenacity. He has shown that in his last two games, collecting six and seven rebounds respectively and exceeding this line. Who is to say he cannot do it again?

For our first basketball tip of the week we are headed to the biggest game of the afternoon with Los Angeles heading south to take on Houston. The game is between the 3^rd and 4^th seed in the West and with LA coming is underdogs I don’t mind their chances at all.

Luka Doncic is currently playing out of his mind and the supporting cast behind him with Austin Reaves and Lebron james are certainly finding their footing in their new roles. They will be taking on a very good Houston outfit, but coming off five wins in a row it’s easy to see how LA could force an upset here.

After starting the week with a solid win, we look to go back to back on Wednesday’s much fuller slate of US basketball. Compared to yesterday, there are plenty of options for us to choose from, with head to head and player props all on the table.

The play we are going with today is one of the league’s young stars in Philadelphia’s V.J. Edgecomb. Around three quarters of the way through his rookie season, Edgecomb has put together a very good year, and that momentum has carried into his last four outings where he has scored 18 plus in each of them. Against a high-flying Spurs side, I expect Edgecomb to try and make a statement once again and he could certainly go over that mark this afternoon.

We are back for another week of basketball action as we try to have a better run picking a few winners across the league.

To start the week, we are going with a simple win bet on Los Angeles in their clash against Golden State. Los Angeles have finally snapped their three game skid with a 20 point win last time out. The hope is that they can carry that form into this one against Golden State, who are struggling without their star Stephen Curry.

To close out the week, we are looking at the clash between Los Angeles and Phoenix, as the side from the City of Angels makes the trip down south to the desert.

Los Angeles are experiencing a bit of a skid post All-Star break, with the fit of their top three players being somewhat clunky and needing some ironing out. For the home side, they are without their two best players, with Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks set to miss this one, which gives LA a great opportunity to find their feet.

I think they do that this afternoon, simply because there is too much talent for this mid season dip in form to spiral any further.

Back to back winners here through the middle portion of the week on our basketball tips, and it’s time to hopefully make that three on the bounce.

This afternoon I am looking towards the marquee match up across the league, which is the bout between Boston and Denver. For me, while Denver have been a free flowing offence, they have had some inconsistencies on the defensive side of the ball. Boston, on the other hand, are one of the best defensive units in the league while also offering solid offensive output. With that said, even on the road in the Denver altitude and on the second night of a back to back, I think they can keep it close.

With yesterday lacking games across the US basketball slate, today couldn’t be more different, with 22 of the 30 teams in action. That means we have 11 games to make our pick from, creating a plethora of viable options.

The pick I have settled on though, is one of the best rookies in this year’s class, Duke product Kon Knueppel. The combo guard has taken to the league superbly and, after the All Star break, he has been explosive, scoring 33 and 28 points. This afternoon against Chicago, I expect Knueppel to continue that momentum, which is why I have him over his points prop in this one.

Tuesday afternoon’s slate of basketball action is pretty thin, with only three games on the schedule. However, within those few games there is still some serious value across the board.

To me, the game between Memphis and Sacramento has a few different potential plays, but the one I have landed on is G.G. Jackson to get 16+ points. The former second round pick has become one of the featured players for Memphis in recent months and has gone over 20 points in his last three games. Coming up against the worst statistical defence in the league right now, I don’t think he should have too many problems getting open looks in this one.

One of basketball’s richest rivalries will open a new chapter this afternoon as Boston make the trip to the West Coast to take on their rivals, Los Angeles. Both sides have had a pretty good season to date and will be looking to build some serious momentum after the All Star break.

For Los Angeles, it is basically the first time this whole season that they have been fully healthy, and it is quite a sight to see when they are operating on all cylinders. One of the key cogs in that is guard Austin Reaves, who is back from injury and finally no longer on a minutes restriction. With that being the case, and given Reaves’ history against Boston, I could see him being a major factor in the scoring column.

Ah well, back to the drawing board as we endure our first loss of the week on the basketball tips after missing the second leg of the same game multi. While that puts an end to our perfect run, I still have one more pick up my sleeve to see if we can finish the week shooting 80%.

This pick comes from another Milwaukee game, but this time they are taking on Washington at Capital One Arena. Rather than going for a big swing with a two-leg same game multi to close out the week, I am dialling it back to a single.

The bet selected is in the total points market, as I think there is a real chance this one turns into a slog between these two sides. Without Giannis, Milwaukee lack any real shot creators, and even at full strength Washington do not really have any stars. With that said, shot-making could become a real issue at times throughout this game, so the under on the total points is my pick to close out the week.

Did someone say three for three? Because that is exactly where we are at through the first half of this week on the basketball tips. All that means for us is it is time to get to work and find the fourth winner of the week.

Today we are taking a look at two of the smaller market teams, as Charlotte are set to make the trip to take on Memphis at the FedExForum.

Between the two sides there are some exciting options, but most of all for me in regards to scoring is Brandon Miller. The former top-three pick has become the lead scoring option for Charlotte and has gone over 20 points in his last five games, so why stop the streak now?

I would also expect this one to be fast-paced, with both sides playing fearless basketball. That should mean plenty of fast breaks and shots being put up. Luckily for Memphis, they have one of the best shot blockers in the league in Jaren Jackson Jr, who I think could get a couple of blocks at least in this one.

• Brandon Miller 20+ Points @ $1.67
• Jaren Jackson Jr 2+ Blocks @ $1.72

We are red hot to start out the week, going two for two on our basketball same game multis, so why not keep the ball rolling and find ourselves another two leg option for this afternoon’s slate.

For the third multi of the week, we are heading out east for the game between Philadelphia and Milwaukee, with both sides needing to start stacking wins in a hurry.

To start this game off, like we have done in the past two, we are going to look at one of the many star players on the court. That player is Joel Embiid, who has returned to his MVP form now that he is fully fit. In this matchup, with no Giannis to line up against him, I think Embiid could have a big day on the stat sheet.

Lastly, like yesterday, I have this one going over the points total. Philadelphia has plenty of scorers who can really get it going at any moment. However, what they lack is the ability to defend. This was seen in their most recent game against the Hornets, where they conceded 109 points in three quarters. So for Milwaukee, even without their best player, I think they could still put up a solid total themselves.

• Joel Embiid 40+ PRA @ $1.72
• Over 219.5 Total Points @ $1.90

A couple of solid basketball teams are set to face off this afternoon as Los Angeles continue their road trip and stop off in Chicago. With both teams well in the playoff picture, it remains crucial that either side continues to stack wins in the middle of the campaign and do not leave themselves with too much work towards the end of the regular season.

When discussing this game, the best player on the court is no doubt Luka Doncic. The Los Angeles superstar guard has been in some red hot form recently, which is backed up by winning Player of the Week in the West. I think against a Chicago side with no real answer for him, he could go well over 45 PRA for the fifth time in six games.

Rounding this one out, the total really sticks out to me as a value play. These two sides are offence centric and have below average defensive units, which should allow for plenty of points. The line set at 235.5 is more than doable, and it would simply require the teams to follow recent trends, with both clubs going over that total in recent games.

• Luka Dončić 45+ PRA @ $1.28
• Total Points Over 235.5 @ $1.90

A new week of basketball action tips off with Oklahoma City hosting Toronto on Monday afternoon, and based on some of the injuries sustained by the favourites in this one, there could be value to be found. For Oklahoma City, they are going to be without Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein, who are two of their most key players.

With that being the case, I think, as we have seen in recent games, this will put a bigger emphasis on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to be more of a scorer rather than the all-around player we know he can be. Meaning for me in this one, as he has done in five of his last six games, I have him under his rebounds and assists market.

To add to this same game multi, regardless of how big a favourite Oklahoma City will be based on the injuries, and the run Toronto have been on, I think the away side can cover the spread on the road.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 11.5 Rebounds and Assists @ $1.83
• Toronto +11.5 @ $1.83

Jay Huff for Indiana nailed four three-pointers against Boston just over a week ago. He’s sitting at a little under even money to make two today, but I like the value on Huff to drain three or more.

Boston gives up one of the highest percentages of 3PA per game this season, and that’s where Huff lives. He’s hot at the moment, too and should get a few open looks when Boston overhelps on the pick and rolls.

Take him for 2+ if you want to play it safe, but I don’t mind him for three or even four made three pointers.

With Kawhi Leonard taking a seat for the last couple of road games, the scoring load has fallen squarely on James Harden’s shoulders.

He should be able to step up again against a Chicago side that sits near the bottom of the league for defensive rating. Harden has gone past this number in three of his past four outings, including big nights of 31 and 36 points in his last two appearances

I’m backing Ausar Thompson to clear his rebound line today because of the injury to Jalen Duren. In the last four games that Duran has sat out, Thompson has cleared this line with ease.

He’s averaging a touch under nine boards when Duran is out, and he gets a good matchup against Chicago, who are allowing plenty of rebounds to SF, and they are also without three of their four main glass cleaners.

Thompson had nine in this matchup last time they met.

New Orleans are terrible at defending the three-pointer. Norman Powell made 9 three-pointers for Miami against them in their last outing. Caleb Love had six, and Jalen Brunson made five.

This puts Luka in a great spot to make at least four, but I’d push it to five for the extra value. Luka made 4+ in three of their four meetings last year and is on a seven-game streak for 3+.

Last time we did a ladder, it was backing Anthony Edwards against New Orleans, he had six; this time, we get a better three-point shooter against the same defence.

• Luka Doncic to have 3+ Threes @ $1.22 ✅
• Luka Doncic to have 4+ Threes @ $1.57 ❌
• Luka Doncic to have 5+ Threes @ $2.10 ❌
• Luka Doncic to have 6+ Threes @ $3.05 ❌
• Luka Doncic to have 7+ Threes @ $4.75 ❌

Washington have had no answers to bigs this season, which puts Wendell Carter Jr. in a great spot today.

Washington allows the third most points in the league to centres and the most rebounds. The points should be no problem for Carter Jr.; reaching double-digits in boards will be the only hurdle.

However, he is coming off back-to-back double-double outings, and in his only meeting with Washington this season, he notched up a 16-point, 12-rebound performance.

Okay, I know we backed Jaylen Brown to clear his PRA to finish off 2025, and he sold, but it’s a new year, and he’s fresh off a 50-piece.

His last five games he’s had 30, 37, 23, 29 and 50.

Nikola Vucevic will be getting all the minutes for Chicago at centre with no Zach Collins or Jalen Smith, and he is far from a great help defender or shot blocker.

This means Jaylen Brown should be able to continue playing to his strengths and attack the rim.

I’ve got something a little different with this New York, Detroit match-up.

We’ll start our two-leg same game multi with Karl-Anthony Towns. New York relies quite heavily on the big man when it comes to both scoring and rebounding. He’s fresh off a 23-point and 14-rebound performance and will need another similar night against this Detroit side.

Brunson is of course, the glue for New York. He averages 30+ points in his last 10 games against Detroit. They’ll game plan to slow Brunson down, so we’ll take him at a modest line to get out multi just above the $2 mark.

Giannis should feast against Sacramento today. The only thing that potentially might get in his way is a minute restriction.

Sacramento struggle on defence, we know this, but I’m not sure how they’re going to stop Giannis with no Domantas Sabonis either.

Giannis has 33 and 30 in his last two games – back him to have another 30 piece today.

It’s no secret that Jordan Poole isn’t the most efficient three-point shooter. He’s shooting at 30% from beyond the arc for the season. But he has been on a tear lately, draining exactly four three-pointers in his last three games.

He’s averaging plenty of attempts and might just be finding his rhythm now since coming back from injury.

Jaylen Brown has the chance to write himself into the history books for Boston. The former Finals MVP is tied with Larry Bird for the most consecutive 30-point games (nine) in the history of the franchise.

During this nine-game stretch, Brown is averaging 31.5 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, and he’s cleared his PRA line of 43.5 in five of those nine.

Brown gets a fantastic match-up to go for his 10^th straight game with 30+ points against a Utah side who play quick and ranks towards the bottom in defence rating this season.

Robinson sits in a good spot against LA today, who allow the second-highest three-point percentage in the league this season. This obviously bodes well for a guy like Robinson, who is a deep range threat scoring the majority of his points beyond the arc.

Caris LeVert looks like he’ll sit today, and in the six games he has been absent, Robinson has averaged 13 points and plenty more minutes.

Back New York at home, fade them when they’re on the road. It’s a simple formula.

New York are 3-10 against the spread when on the road this season. They’re without Mitchell Robinson and Miles McBride, and New Orleans has been playing better of late.

That’s until they got smacked in back-to-back games by Cleveland and Phoenix.

Though they still have a bit of fight in them and are 12-7-1 against the spread at home this season.

Giannis is back from injury and played 25 minutes in his return and had 29 points, eight rebounds and just one assist.

Kevin Porter Jr. has become the clear distributor in Milwaukee, which has resulted in Giannis seeing fewer potential assists.

I don’t think he’ll see more than 30 minutes today, and his line is still at 6.5…

Smash the unders.

Los Angeles has been on a slide over these last few games and went down on Christmas to Houston, 119-96. Even though they’ve been losing it hasn’t resulted in low-scoring games.

LA lose games badly because they don’t have their defence sorted. Seven of their last 10 games have seen more than 230 points, and the same thing has happened in the last two meetings with Sacramento.

Neither side will play a lot of defence, but I’m sure LA, Luka in particular, will make the most of some poor defence and stuff the stat sheet.

We’re going to look at the winning side of LA now. Kawhi and his team are on a three-game winning streak, but it’s worth noting that those wins came when they hosted their neighbours, beat an inconsistent Portland side and a depleted Houston team.

Detroit are different gravy.

They’ve got the best record in the East, and a -3 point start is a smaller gap than I expected. Detroit are a much better team.

For what it’s worth, Detroit have covered a -3 spread in their last seven wins.

Early signs for the Christmas Day slate (Boxing Day here) look like Luka Doncic will sit out, which means it’s Austin Reaves’ time to shine.

We have a wee sample size of Los Angeles without Luka, and Reaves was having a field day. Through five games, Reaves averages 40 points, 4 rebounds and 9 assists.

He dropped 51, 41, 28, 44 and 36 during that span.

With Luka likely out, Reaves will have the ball in his hand for a lot of the game, so I’m all over him to produce another big scoring night.

MPJ is playing at an elite level for Brooklyn. He’s cleared this line in seven of his last 10 games, averaging 34 points and rebounds with multiple 40+ games in that category during that span.

He had 34 points and rebounds on the dot, the only time they’ve played Philly this year. He should shoot well, and he’s always been a good rebounder.

Philly has allowed the bigger forwards in the league to dominate with PJ Washington, Rui, Lebron and Cooper Flagg all clearing their PR line against them.

The top four in this year’s draft class could go down as one of the best in history. Cooper Flagg has become the youngest player to drop 40, Dylan Harper is balling in San Antonio, and VJ Edgecomb is bringing hope to Philly.

However, Kon Knueppel might just be the best of the lot. Flagg’s teammate back at Duke is averaging 19.4 points a game and nailing 40.9% of his three-point attempts.

Knueppel has 20+ in three of his last four; the one miss was 19 points in his last outing. But go back a few days, and you’ll find a 29-point explosion from the rookie against Cleveland.

It wouldn’t be a rookie edition without putting in the number one overall pick.

Flagg has 20+ points in each of his last four games, including 42 against Utah a week ago. It’s clear Dallas are allowing the highly-touted rookie to do his thing.

New Orleans still hasn’t figured out how they want to guard Flagg. In the two match-ups this year, they’ve had three different players guard him and not to any great effect. Flagg is averaging 36 PRA in the two games so far.

The star centre for Houston is a stat-stuffing machine, and with KD, his numbers were expected to drop. They’ve done the complete opposite.

Sengun is averaging a career-best 23 points per game along with a touch over 9 boards and 7 assists.

He’s put up 40+ PRA in four of his last five games, with the lone exception coming against Denver. He gets a good match-up here against Sacramento, who will be without Domantas Sabonis.

It’s the second meeting in a week between these two teams, and San Antonio should be able to control the game yet again.

Stephon Castle put up 24 points as well as five assists in just 25 minutes in the game last week. It was the first of a back-to-back for San Antonio, hence the limited minutes for Castle.

I’d expect him to have more minutes today before a break over the Christmas period, and this is about as good a match-up as you could ask for. Washington plays fast and has the worst defence in the league… this should lead to plenty of scoring opportunities for San Antonio.

Luka’s side heads into Thursday missing Austin Reaves and Deandre Ayton, with Gabe Vincent still sitting in the questionable bucket that opens the door for Luka Doncic to put his hand up and score a boatload of points.

Luka is averaging 34 ppg this season and shooting 46% from the field. With Reaves out, Doncic should have the ball in his hands all night long.

Another winner for December, and we’re back again, trying to go four from four.

Let’s start with the fact that Brunson has covered this line in six of his last seven games vs Toronto, including earlier this season.

Toronto play a lot of help defence and does so early on. That means more passing lanes open, and Brunson has done a good job of exploiting them. He’s struggled to score points due to Toronto’s length on defence, which means he usually dishes the ball to his teammates more often than usual.

High usage guards have had success so far against Toronto recently, with Reaves having 10 assists, Mitchell having eight, Maxey with nine and LaMelo Ball having eight.

Defensively, Sacramento ranks last in points allowed in the paint and towards the bottom of the pack in plenty of other metrics that Mathurin excels in.

He should get some decent minutes under his belt, and with the game total set high, and the point start reasonably close, I’m picking that Mathurin will have plenty of scoring opportunities and Indiana will need him.

He’s coming off a 28-point game in 38 minutes against Chicago three days ago and is averaging 24 points per game when Indiana wins.

We cashed Ant-Man yesterday in the third quarter; here’s who we’re going for in today’s slate.

Alperen Sengun has covered this line in two straight games, and now he gets a favourable match-up in Sacramento.

He had 30 against them last time and has always been aggressive when facing them. He loves putting up shots, averaging 17 field goal attempts vs Sacramento over the last two seasons so expect him to have plenty of looks today.

Centres have also cooked Sacramento this season, with Edey having 32, Jokic had 44, 35 and 34 and to my knowledge, Sacramento are still yet to figure out how to stop the big men.

Ant has found his rhythm from beyond the arc, having made at least 4 three-pointers in each of the five straight games. Averaging 4.8 three-pointers made on 9.8 attempts over those five games.

New Orleans has the worst three-point defence in the league, allowing the most attempts and made shots. On top of that, they also allow plenty of wide-open shots with opponents getting some quality looks.

Ant loves this matchup, nailing 3 of 7, 4 of 10, 7 of 11, 4 of 7 and 5 of 10 three-pointers in his last five games vs New Orleans.

If you’re feeling confident, you could ladder it up in a few bets:

• Anthony Edwards to have 3+ Threes @ $1.32 ✅
• Anthony Edwards to have 4+ Threes @ $1.75 ✅
• Anthony Edwards to have 5+ Threes @ $2.50 ✅
• Anthony Edwards to have 6+ Threes @ $3.80 ✅
• Anthony Edwards to have 7+ Threes @ $6.25 ❌

KD has been on a heater over this stretch of four or five games, scoring 35, 30, 23 and 31 points. In each of those four games, he’s made 2+ threes, but the encouraging part is he’s taking plenty of looks.

Now, if KD is on a heater, what does that mean Donovan Mitchell is on? He’s dropped 37, 30 and 31 in his last three games, nailing 10 three pointers. Like KD, he’s putting up plenty of shots, and in a tough matchup, Mitchell is going to want the ball in his hands a lot.

Paolo Banchero is out for Orlando, which means Franz Wagner becomes the number one option. When Banchero has missed games for Orlando this season, Wagner has covered this line each time.

He should see plenty of volume against a Golden State team who have struggled against high usage scorers this season.

This is an extremely buy-low spot on Ace Bailey after he registered just one rebound in 10 minutes and fouled out.

Ace has been in and around the 20-minute mark per game, and he’s projected to play around 27 minutes against LA today, according to RotoWire and Lineups. When he’s played 20+ minutes, he’s cleared this line six games out of six.

Bad day yesterday with two unlucky bets. Not the best way to start November, but we’ll bounce back.

On average Isaiah Jackson is seeing about 26-27 minutes per game, thanks to all the injuries Indiana has at the moment. Jackson had 20, 18, and 31 points and rebounds in the three games he’s played, where he’s seen more than 20 mins.

Brooklyn are allowing the 4th most points to centres this season, too, so expect Jackson to have a decent impact for Indiana today.

The former second overall pick in last year’s draft, Alex Sarr, has been outstanding on the boards for Washington to start the season.

He’s averaging 8.4 rebounds per game, and he’s cleared his line of 7.5 in six of the seven games. The only game he’s gone under was when Charlotte were lights out, and didn’t miss a shot on their way to 139 points.

Sarr gets a good matchup today against Boston, who’s allowing plenty of rebounds to centres, and Sarr is seeing a lot of minutes for his side.

Grimes is averaging 28 PRA so far this season and is fresh off a 41 PRA performance, which included 22 points, 7 rebounds and 13 assists in their win over Brooklyn.

He’s only cleared this line three times this season, but he’s gone over 20 PRA in each of Philadelphia’s six games this season. When he has missed this line, he’s finished with 20, 21, and 22 PRA.

Plus, Chicago just gave up huge PRA numbers to guards in their loss to New York on Monday.

Porzingis is averaging seven boards a game through his first four games for Atlanta this season. He has seven in the first game, missed the next two with flu-like symptoms and then eased his way back into it with two and six boards.

Last time out, though, he grabbed 12 rebounds in 28 minutes and eight in 23 minutes the game before that. He’s starting to see a lot more rebound opportunities per game with the pace that Orlando plays at; there should be plenty of chances for Porzingis to clean the boards.

Giannis has been on an absolute tear to start the season, scoring 37, 31, 40 and 37 points through the first four games.

Without a true co-star, he’s taken on a heavier scoring load. He’s also got the ball in his hands a lot more and has had to initiate the offence and create his own shot.

Golden State also struggle to stop power forwards. If you missed it, then I don’t know what to say, but Aaron Gordon had a 50-bomb a couple of games back against Golden State, now, imagine what Giannis can do.

Orlando continues to play their fast-paced brand of basketball, headlined by Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, who drive this young athletic core to thrive in transition and have shown flashes of offensive growth. On the flip side, a once elite defence has now slipped into the bottom 10 in the league.

Charlotte very much mirrors the same formula.

LaMelo Ball is pushing the tempo, Brandon Miller is becoming more of a scorer too, and the team have been able to score in bunches and make it look easy most of the time.

But like Orlando, Charlotte’s defence ranks in the bottom 10.

With both teams prioritising speed over structure, I expect some fireworks tonight and plenty of scoring to push well past the total.

Donovan Mitchell has only hit this line twice so far in their four games played, but is averaging right on 33 points and rebounds.

But this is where it gets good.

Mitchell loves to dominate Boston, and he’s cleared this line in each of his last nine games against them, averaging 41.5 during that span.

Max Strus, Darius Garland and now Sam Merrill (injured when we punted on him 🤢) are all out, which means Mitchell should be doing the majority of the scoring for Cleveland.

Both times Boston has faced a ball-dominant guard, they’ve cleared their P+R line. Back Mitchell to do the same.

Nikola Vucevic has been a menace on the boards to start the season, averaging 13 rebounds a game. He now has a great matchup against Sacramento, who play at a fast pace but are also allowing the most rebounds in the league to centres.

Vucevic has had 14, 8 and 17 rebounds in his three games so far this season, but other centres who have come up against Sacramento… 11, 14, 15 and 11.

Each one clearing their rebound line.

Jalen Brunson has scored 30+ points in both his last two games, meaning he has now cleared this line in two out of three games this season. He’s averaging 30.3 points per game, and we’re getting his average at above even money.

To help his case, he’s scored 36 points or more in six of his last eight games against Milwaukee.

He loves this matchup.

Brunson averages more points against Milwaukee than any other team besides Dallas.

Seeing Charlotte with a winning record is something to behold for basketball fans. It’s mostly due to their healthy roster, which has allowed their offence to click.

On opening night, Charlotte had nine players in double digits, and in their most recent win, they had four starters score 20+ points. LaMelo Ball is, of course, being the standout.

It’s a much tougher assignment for Charlotte, but if they can continue their high-paced offence, they’ll keep themselves in this one. They’ve covered in all three games so far this season, let’s hope they can go for a fourth.

Sam Merrill has gotten all three starts for Cleveland this year, with Garland and Max Strus both out injured. Through the first three games, Merrill has averaged over 19 points, scoring 19, 22 and 17.

Cleveland’s backup point guard, Lonzo Ball, is also out tonight, so Merrill should see even more of an uptick in minutes. He’s putting up 11 shots per game already, which should increase again today.

Zion Williamson has looked much fitter coming into this season, and he has been very active on the boards through New Orleans’ first two games.

He grabbed nine in his first game, 10 in his second and with Boston on the second leg of a back-to-back, there might be some tired shots being put up that Zion can go and clean up.

The three-time MVP, Nikola Jokic, is back in action tonight, heading to the Bay to take on Golden State.

Dating back to 2023, Jokic has lined up against Golden State six times and cleared this line five times out of those six games. He’s averaging 54.4 PRA throughout those six games as well.

Playoff Jimmy might just be regular Jimmy now after that performance on opening night.

He had 31 points with four assists, making 7-14 from the field and shot a perfect 16-16 at the free throw line. He was also playmaking with 11 potential assists that his teammates couldn’t cash in on.

He could clear this line with just his points alone if he continues with the same efficiency as the first game. But you’d expect his teammates to make some more shots too.

With Damian Lillard out of the lineup and no longer on the roster, Giannis will have to take it to another level this year. Taking on a larger scoring and playmaking role for Milwaukee.

In games last year when Dame was out of the lineup, Giannis cleared this total 9 times out of 16 while averaging 31 points.

Washington struggled against power forwards last year, meaning Giannis has a favourable matchup to start his season. He torched them last year, scoring 42 points in one game and 18 points in just 19 minutes in the other.

Giannis will be aggressive and set the tone early in their season opener.

Year 3 from Wemby starts tonight, and he does have a tough assignment coming up against Dallas and AD.

Wemby averaged 24.3 points a game last year, up from 21.4 in his rookie season.

As he steps into year three, he’s going to take on more of a role once again and be the guy for the Spurs. Yes, he does it on both ends with blocks, steals and assists, but expect him to put up more shots, get more open looks thanks to guys like Stephon Castle and this year’s number two pick, Dylan Harper, getting him open looks.

Houston made a huge offseason move by acquiring Kevin Durant, and throughout the preseason, they’ve looked like they’re ready to hit the ground running.

They’ll have a tough ask to get started, though, as they travel to face the reigning champs. Oklahoma City were beyond impressive throughout the entirety of last season, but they’re potentially going to be without a few key cogs.

Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren didn’t suit up once during the preseason, which would leave a huge role for the reigning MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The size of Houston, as well as an uptick on the offensive side, should see them keep this close.

Luka Doncic taking on Steph Curry on opening day, how good!

No Lebron for LA to start the season, but that means Luka will have the ball in his hands more and can dominate the game.

There have also been a few rule changes over the offseason that will benefit shooters like Steph Curry.

Funnily enough, we have a betcha boost on both of these players to score 25+ at above even money. I think this is going to be a fun game to watch and I’m happy backing both these studs to score 25+.

As I said above, I think Luka and Steph will take over, and points should flow nicely for these two teams.

Add in the two other key components for each of the sides to play their role too, and we should see the points total fly over 226.5.

• Stephen Curry to score 25+ Points
• Luka Doncic to score 30+ Points
• Austin Reaves Over 5.5 Assists
• Jimmy Butler Over 10.5 Rebounds & Assists
• Over 226.5 Total Points

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