After a last-minute withdrawal ahead of the fight with (then) lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, 22-3 Arman Tsarukyan now sees himself up against Kiwi Dan ‘The Hangman’ Hooker. Arman looks to remind the division why he is no.1 contender for the belt (now held by Illia Topuria). Dan Hooker has his own eyes set on the same goal after years of entertaining fights against some of the best in the division. Dan is coming for gold and believes if he defeats Arman, he will get the title shot.
Arman is on a 4-fight win streak and is 9-2 in the UFC 4 by KO, 5 by Decision. His recent impressive wins are over Charles Oliveria by decision and a TKO victory over Dariush in round 1, Arman has lost once by KO back in 2015.
Dan Hooker is on a 3-fight win streak continuing to prove the doubters wrong in each of those three, 2 via decision 1 via TKO. Dan is 14-8 in the UFC with 7 wins by KO/TKO 5 by decision and 2 by sub. He certainly possesses the star knockout power to produce something special, can he prove the doubters wrong yet again? The odds are certainly enticing.
A similar stylistic matchup to what we saw when Dan faced-off with Gamrot, a 5 round fight that went to decision in Dan Hooker’s favour. Could we see the same this weekend? The key difference here from Gamrot is Arman being once of the best well-rounded fighters in the UFC. He is better on the ground, fast on his feet, and has a dirty ground and pound threat. We all saw the damage he inflicted on Charles Oliveria. Arman is a world class wrestler and was meant to be “the one” to really push Islam to the limits in a like-for-like matchup but Arman is yet to find a win via submission in the UFC and I don’t see him getting that accolade this weekend.
Despite such praise for Arman, Dan showcased against Gamrot that he has good ground defence and is more than capable of getting back up and relentlessly pushing forward. He also possess and undeniable threat on his feet. This man loves fighting tired, he is a dawg who isn’t afraid of the depths of the later rounds and if Arman’s game plan is to wrestle, both will tire.
I anticipate this to be a war, with both fighters digging into the trenches to find a win and going the full five – but there are alt. bets that hold value if you are looking for a finish in this star-studded lightweight match-up.
Bet:
Arman Tsarukyan by Points or Dan Hooker by Points @ 2.70
Value:
Dan Hooker By KO/TKO @ 9.50
Arman Tsarukyan by KO/TKO @ 2.55
Former champ Belal Muhammed comes up against Ian Garry in this welterweight matchup which holds intrinsic value for the politics of a heavily contested division and its title shot opportunities. Ian Garry is a firm believer that if he wins this, he is next in line to fight new and current champ Islam Makhachev.
With such a heavy price tag on this fight for Ian Garry, I back his undisputed ego to get the job done, but not the way he thinks. Ian Garry has won 4 of his last 5 by decision. Belal is a former champ for a reason and is looking to get back to winning ways, stylistically not very pretty but tactically very astute and although Belal may struggle to adapt to the pace of 3 rounds he will certainly give Ian Garry a harder time than he is willing to admit. I don’t anticipate this to be an easy road to his title aspirations. The advantage for Ian is the three rounds against a former champ who is used to the 5 round pace with 4 of his last 5 being five rounders, he may struggle to do enough on the cards with two less rounds.
This seems to be a battle of the clinch game with Garry doing enough with his reach advantage and head kicks to rack up the points over the three rounds to get a win by decision over the former champ.
Bet: Ian Garry by Points @1.85
Volkan Ozdemir enters the octagon on the back of a loss via unanimous decision to Carlos Ulberg after going toe-to-toe right until the end. Prior to that fight was on a two fight win streak. Volkan is 8-7 in the UFC 4 wins by KO/TKO Almost a year to the day since his loss. He faces off against 17-5 Alonzo Menifield who is on a two fight win streak with two wins both coming via decision, he has 10 wins in the UFC and 4 by KO/TKO.
Alonzo also losing to Carlos back in 2024 via R1 Knockout within 12 seconds, successfully bouncing back after a R2 KO/TKO defeat to Murzakanov. He will be feeling confident again after two wins via decision since.
Volkan should have the experience and pacing to get a win here BUT he must be mindful of Alonzo Menifields power-heavy shots, particularly in the first 2 rounds.
Bet: Volkan Oezdemir by KO/TKO or Points @1.55
Value: Alonzo Menifield by KO/TKO @ 6.50
24-9 Jack Hermansson takes on up and coming Myktybek Orolbai who is 14-2, 3-1 in the UFC with 2 wins by sub and one by decision. From his 14 fights Orolbai has won 6 by ko/tko and 6 by submission and will be looking to add to this tally this weekend against a higher profile opponent in what could perhaps his first UFC knockout victory.
Jack Hermansson will look to prevent such a result coming in off the back of a loss via ko/tko in R1 to Gregory Rodrigues in June, losing two of his last three (both via knockout). Perhaps taking a more defensive approach against the versatile Orolbai who will look for takedowns to close the reach advantage and dela damage from there. He has fought elite contenders and current/former champs such as Sean Strickland and Khamzat Chimaev. Jack will have the height and reach advantage over Orolbai, who will have youth and wrestling on his. Orolbai also poses strong knock out ability as aforementioned, but has missed weight in both of his last two fights.
This weekend sees him moving up to welterweight and jack Hermansson moving down from middleweight. It’s a bigger body to deal with for Orolbi, but should feel comfortable not having to focus on weight cutting (or missing weight) so heavily as he moves up.
Bet: Myktybek Orolbai by KO/TKO or Submission @ 2.60
A late withdrawal sees 15-2 Waldo Acosta step in for Serghei Spivac to face 14-1 Shamil Gaziev. Gaziev 14 wins 9 by KO/TKO on a two-fight win streak , 3-1 in the UFC with the only chip in his armour being the R4 loss to Rozenstruik and ultimately retiring from the fight. Waldo comes in late notice on a 1 fight win streak and 8-2 in the UFC, winning 3 by KO and 5 by decision.
Gaziev struggles in the later rounds – luckily for him it’s a 3 round fight unfortunately it’s against an active and agile Waldo. As someone who is yet to lose to anything other than decision, one of which was to Serghei Pavlovic, it may prove harder for Gaziev to end the fight early with Waldo excelling across the span of 3 rounds with his higher output.
Bet: Cortes-Acosta by points or Gaziev by KO/TKO
34-5 Kyoji Horiguchi makes his return to the UFC after 9 years almost to the date, departing for Rizin defeating Kai Asakura in the Bantamweight Championship in 2022. He has fought the likes of one of the greatest fighters of all time Demetrious Johnson ( who had 11 consecutive title defences) losing in the 5th round and had two championship wins across Rizin and Bellator and bouncing back from consecutive loses with two wins (1 via sub, 1 via decision). He was 7-1 when in the UFC , 14-1 in Rizin and 2-2 in Bellator ( two of which were championship fights) and is on a 5 fight win streak in MMA .
He comes up against 17-2 Tagir who his on a four fight win streak and is 6-1 in the UFC winning two via decision and two via sub from his last five and will have the reach advantage in this match-up.
Concerns about the late return for Kyoji with Bellator fighters seeming to struggle coming in to the UFC the positives here is Kyoji has been here before and has fought world class opposition.
former champ at an underdog price.
Bet: Kyoji Horiguchi @2.60