How good is it that Friday is finally here? It’s been a big week in the betting world, with the Melbourne Cup taking centre stage, but now that the weekend has arrived, we’re back to the usual sporting action we’ve become accustomed to.
That means it’s time to do some analysis and try to pry some value out of the sporting scene around the world with our top five bets for the weekend’s slate. Personally I’m super excited for what we have in store for this one, so let’s crack into it, starting with Thursday Night Football.
Thursday night will be an interesting game this weekend with a divisional matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders on a short week. Sean Payton’s Broncos are heavy favourites and for good reason, as they may have the best defence in the NFL and Bo Nix finally looks like the player we saw in his rookie season once again.
The Raiders, on the other hand, under their new regime, have been a turnstile this season on both sides of the ball. The most damning element of their campaign has been how poor Geno Smith has looked during his first season in a Raiders jersey until last weekend. We saw a little bit of life from the Raiders offence when they welcomed back Brock Bowers, who went for over 110 yards and three touchdowns on his return. Having Bowers back healthy should allow this unit to open up a bit more and enable Smith to be the player the Raiders thought they were getting when they traded for him.
This should also take some pressure off Ashton Jeanty, who would otherwise be the first name on the Broncos scouting report. Jeanty, as we all know, is an uber-talented back finding his feet in the league. While the Broncos are a tough matchup, I think we could see plenty of Jeanty as the Raiders look to nullify Denver’s pass rush.
If that is the case and the Raiders begin to play like a team with nothing to lose, give me Jeanty to find the end zone in some manner in this one.
The All Blacks will take on their second battle of the Grand Slam tour this weekend, and they have a huge opportunity to make it 2–0 so far in the Northern Hemisphere. They face Scotland, who many would think should be an easier clash than Ireland. I would agree with that, however I still think Scotland are a team to be wary of given the sheer amount of superstar talent they have available. Names like Finn Russell, Sione Tuipulotu and Blair Kinghorn all stand out as players who could break the game open for the home side.
The All Blacks will also need to endure this battle without their captain and vice-captain, as Jordie and Scott Barrett are set to miss the test. Regardless, I still think the All Blacks have a side that will cause plenty of trouble for Scotland across the park, and like in the game against Ireland, they also boast much greater match fitness. This is why, for my second best bet of the week, I have the All Blacks covering the spread in this one.
A huge Big Ten battle will take place on Sunday morning as the high-flying Oregon Ducks travel to Iowa to take on the Hawkeyes in what promises to be a hard nosed clash. The Ducks come in as road favourites, and that is due to their undeniable talent advantage, with future first-round picks scattered across the team. None of those players will be more important in this one than redshirt sophomore Dante Moore, who has found himself in top-five draft discussions thanks to his high level of play this season.
Iowa, on the other hand, while lacking the same level of talent, often causes big teams issues because of the unique brand of football they play, which leads to some strange game scripts. To quickly explain, Iowa simply do not like throwing the ball, and that’s because the way they are built means they don’t need to in order to beat most teams in the country. Instead, they bring out the jumbo package, show you they are going to run the ball, and then continue to do so until you prove you can stop them.
This style of play allows them to stay close against big teams and gives them a chance to win signature games down the stretch, although they haven’t quite managed to do so this season. This weekend will be their best chance, being at home and playing in potentially snowy conditions that suit their power-run style of football. I’m not sure they will pull it off, but give me Iowa to cover the spread in this one.
The Black Caps will play the third T20 of their five-game series against the West Indies this weekend at Saxton Oval in Nelson. The teams are currently level at one all after the home side narrowly secured victory last night at Eden Park.
This weekend could be a series defining game, as whoever takes a 2–1 lead will no doubt be in the box seat to claim the overall victory. With that said, I think a lot of what the Black Caps have been doing with the bat in this series has relied on the top order getting them off to a fast start. The man who has been able to do that is Firebirds opener Tim Robinson, who is in outstanding form at international level this year. Coming off an Australian series where he scored his maiden international hundred, and continuing to get off to quick starts against the West Indies, shows the promise he carries.
I expect Robinson to once again make the most of the powerplay this weekend and get the home side off to a flyer, regardless of whether they are setting a target or chasing one.
To cap off this weekend’s best bets, we once again visit a primetime NFL matchup as the Steelers travel to the West Coast to take on the Chargers at the famous SoFi Stadium. The home side will enter the game as favourites, although they are a team I worry about slightly because of the injuries they have endured. The key area they have been dismantled in is across their offensive line, where their two All-Pro level tackles will be out, and several other starters have also gone down. As a result, they have been graded as the worst offensive line in the league heading into Week 10 of the season.
The Steelers, on the other hand, were on a two-game skid that ended last weekend with a surprising win over the Indianapolis Colts. Their offence was once again solid, as it has been all season, but finally their highly paid defence showed up and played to the standard expected of them. They forced more turnovers in that one game than the Colts had all season, while also stifling Jonathan Taylor on the ground.
I think the Steelers pass rush could be the reason that, even playing away in primetime on the West Coast, they could either win or keep this one within a field goal. The likes of T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig are likely to be living in the backfield, and as long as their secondary can keep some sort of lid on the Chargers pass catchers, they should have a good chance in this one.
