There are only seven weeks left of the NFL regular season which means we’re starting to get a clearer picture of how the playoffs might shape up and who needs to do what in order to get there.
It makes for some great matchups down the stretch, starting here in Week 12!
Let’s do it!
We have a low total on TNF this week, and that’s after Josh Allen accounted for six touchdowns on his own last week against the Buccaneers!
It’s because the Texans have struggled A LOT offensively this year, but have been one of the better sides on the defensive side of the ball. Now things can get real haywire in the second half of NFL games, especially in the fourth quarter like we’ve seen recently so I’m going to ride with the first half unders play.
Only one quarterback has thrown for more than 225 yards against the Texans this season and this might come as a shock, but we’re going to fade Josh Allen. He’s passed fewer than 220 yards in half his starts this year.
Then, I’ve got something a wee bit different. A three-leg sgm that lands just over $2.00.
I’ve thrown in Josh Allen and Woody Marks’ alt rushing lines, 20+ and 50+, as well as 1+ Touchdown combined from James Cook and Woody Marks.
The three of those legs net you $2.38.
My Bets:
- First Half Under 22.5 Total Points @ $1.88
- Josh Allen Under 224.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88
- SGM: Josh Allen 20+ Rushing Yards, Woody Marks 50+ Rushing Yards & James Cook/Woody Marks to Have 1+ Touchdown Combined @ $2.38
This is a huge game for the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s currently a coin toss as to whether they’ll make the playoffs or not, but if they don’t come away with a win, their chances will plummet.
That being said, it isn’t an easy task taking on the Colts, who have taken the league by storm on the back of Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor.
The key for the Chiefs this week is stopping JT.
The Colts come off the bye week and have the added advantage in having the veteran coordinator Lou Anarumo, who has a 3-2 record against Mahomes. Plus, we’ll potentially see a first look at Sauce Gardner.
All this, in my mind, has the Chiefs as underdogs, but they’re favourites in the book. I like the underdog narrative for Mahomes, who thrives in the pressure cooker. It’s a one-game season for KC, and they need to win.
Mahomes balls out at home!
My Bets:
- Kansas City Chiefs Win 1-13 @ $2.45
- Patrick Mahomes to Have 3+ Touchdown Passes @ $2.55
- Betcha Boost: Patrick Mahomes 275+ Passing Yards, Rashee Rice 80+ Receiving Yards & Kansas City Chiefs Win @ $5.00
This game doesn’t actually peak my interest at all, apart from the fact that Shedeur Sanders is getting his first NFL start, and hopefully he can help Jerry Jeudy and Njoku save my fantasy season…
I don’t have a heap of expectations around what we’re going to get from this game. But I do know if Lamar Jackson had trouble dealing with this Cleveland defence, then imagine how Geno Smith is going to go.
Myles Garret has been on a tear and is going to make life miserable for the Raiders’ offence.
It’s crazy that Cleveland started with a billion quarterbacks this season and is down to Sanders. But I’m rooting for him and Cleveland to get something out of this matchup between two bad teams.
My Bets:
- Under 36 Total Points @ $1.90
- Cleveland Browns +4 @ $1.90
- Jerry Jeudy to have 50+ Receiving Yards @ $3.50
The Buccaneers face another stiff test heading to LA to take on the Rams after a 44-32 loss to the Bills.
The Rams passed their test against the Seahawks, holding on to a tight win at home.
This is an SNF game that should not disappoint, and I’d expect two MVP-level quarterbacks to put on a show. The total is set at 49.5, which is a lot of points, but hopefully we’re in for a few touchdowns from both teams.
The Rams’ offence did well to find 21 points against one of the top defences in the league; the Bucs’ defence had no answer for Josh Allen, and Baker did his best to keep up.
I’m going to lock in a sgm for the action:
Davante Adams has been cooking and showed no sign of slowing down due to his oblique injury, plus Stafford is loving him!
Emeka Egbuka has slowed down, much like the rest of the Buccaneers team, but he is still a real threat and WR1 on the team. In a game where we’re expecting plenty of TDs, expect him to be in the action.
And of course, add the over total points!
SGM: $7.20
- Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Emeka Egbuka Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Over 49.5 Total Points
It’s the Christian McCaffrey bowl on MNF, and a few weeks ago, you would’ve said the Niners dominate the Panthers.
Now, the Panthers sit 6-5 with three wins in five weeks, five in seven weeks and of course, it’s largely due to Bryce Young finally looking and playing like a number one pick. Last week against the Falcons, he had 448 yards and three touchdowns.
One of the highest-rated performances from a QB in Week 11.
The Niners have gone on a WLWLW streak through their last five games, so if we’re following the pattern, do the Panthers win?
I’m going to say no because CMC is back to doing what he does best, and if he can get past the first wave of defence, he will not stop.
He will dominate the Panthers.
However, I don’t think the Panthers will be dominated by the Niners and actually like them to cover the spread. Rico Dowdle will be able to make the most of a beaten-up Niners defence; they could force a turnover or two and keep this game within a touchdown.
My Bets:
- Christian McCaffrey 2+ Touchdowns @ $2.25
- George Kittle / Rico Dowdle to Have 2+ Touchdowns Combined @ $2.40
- Panthers +7.5 @ $1.87