Former champ 35-11 Charles “Do Bronxs” Oliveria looks to bounce back and find his form after a decisive R1 loss to current Champ Illia Topuria only 3 months ago. Gamrot in a similar scenario bouncing back from a split decision loss against Dan Hooker, by securing a unanimous decision win over Klein. Gamrot has won 4 of the last 5 with 3 by decision. Oliveria struggling for form, has 2 wins from his last 5 fights. A huge opportunity for Gamrot who finally gets his opportunity albeit at short-notice against a Top 5 Lightweight and put his name in contention for a championship belt, after Fiziev withdrew due to injury.
Oliveira holds the record for most finishes (20), most submissions wins (16) and the most Fight Night Bonuses (20) in the UFC. When Oliveria wins, he wins with flare and style.
Bet: Charles Oliveira by Submission or Mateusz Gamrot by Points @2.10
Value: Gamrot by points @4.25
Looks to return to his best after back-to-back losses from a round 2 TKO loss to Cory due to knee injury and a unanimous decision defeat to Petr Yan prior to that. Montel Jackson is on a 6 fight winning streak with 3 coming via KO/TKO and has 8 wins by KO/TKO from his 15 wins. Much like Oliveira having a quick turnaround, I am slightly concerned about the damage to the knee and whether Deiveson is 100%.
Bet: Montel Jackson KO/TKO or Points @1.36
Joel “El Fenomeno” is on a 3 fight win streak, 2 of which ended by KO/TKO. He has 22 wins total, with 17 by submission. Vicente Luque (23-11) will be wanting to get back to business after his submission loss in round 2 to Kevin Holland. El Fenomeno seems to be too lethal here and might just bring a phenomenal finish to the octagon again this weekend.
Bet: Joel Alvarez by KO/TKO or submission @1.48
Heavyweight heavy-hitter 10-0 Mario has a deadly left-hook counter, his last two fights he has won with the left-hook setting up the platform, 10 fight win streak, 6 of those by KO/TKO. On the opposite end of the octagon, Jhonata Diniz is 9-1 with 7 wins by KO/TKO, was able to bounce back from a bad loss to a talented Marcin Tybura back in November 2024 with a win by decision over Alvin Hine in June. Mario Pinto still needs an opportunity to showcase himself against stiffer opponents in the UFC and Jhonata Diniz is a step in the right direction with both fighters winning against Lane by KO/TKO in round 2, Diniz with slightly more experience against strong competition and 3 more fights in the UFC to his name.
I’m anticipating a classic stand and bang between two heavy-hitters.
Bet: Jhonata Diniz by KO/TKO or Mario Pinto by KO/TKO @1.60
With 2 first round finishes and 5 wins by knockout, Michael Aswell looks to return to winnings ways after a loss by decision on a short notice fight, competing a division higher than normal. His output is high with his ceiling unknown puts him at 1.67 favourite in this matchup against Lucas Almeida. Almeida comes in off the back of a defeat to Danny Silva via split decision. With Almeida losing 3 of his last 5 and Aswell winning 3 of his last 5, I have to look towards the favourite who has higher output and is back in his weight class after a respectable loss, if he racks up the significant strikes as he did in his previous two fights the output should speak for itself.
Bet: Michael Aswell Round 3 Significant Strikes Landed 30+ @2.05
Value: Michael Aswell by Points @2.40