Tom Aspinall defends the heavyweight belt for the first time against 13-2 former interim champ Cyril Gane. Aspinall (15-3) is dominance personified, reinforced by some rather impressive stats. Tom is 8-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming via a noncontact knee injury, he returned a year later and defeated Curtis Blaydes in Round 1, a fate seven Heavyweight fighters have been met with, when against Aspinall who has seven first round wins, the most by any fighter in nine octagon appearances, with only one fight ending in round 2, no later.
He has the shortest average fight time (2:02), the highest knockdown average per 15 min the largest striking deferential (5.18), and the most strikes landed per min in the heavyweight division, 3rd in the UFC (8.07). Power, Speed, Agility, Tom is Lethal.
A hard act to follow, but Cyril Gane is up for the test. Potentially the most technical and athletic striker Tom will have faced to date, Cyril (13-2) has never been knocked out, being defensively astute on a 2-fight win streak through a TKO over Spivac and a Split Decision win over Volkov, it is fair to say he has bounced back from his loss to Jon Jones back in 2023. From his 10 wins in the UFC, four have come from KO/TKO, two via submission and four by decision. An impressive stat only slightly blunted when compared to Tom’s 6 wins by KO/TKO, 2 via submission and a 100% finish rate from his wins.
Tom may look to utilise his ground game in this match-up, where Gane will look to stay technical, pushing for the later rounds through his strong kick boxing ability.
Bet: Tom Aspinall to Win in Round 1, 2 or 3 @1.53
Value: Tom Aspinall via submission @3.50
Zhang Weili relinquishes the strawweight belt for a move up to flyweight.
No.1 contender Virna Jandiroba (22-3) takes on no.5 Mackenzie Dern (15-5)
Dern coming in off the back of a “fight of the night “performance vs Ribas. Virna is on a 5-fight win streak. Dern with higher output in the striking game, Jandiroba the wrestling veteran will look to control the 5-round fight. Both fighters have never lost by submission, and Jandiroba has never been knocked out. Dern’s striking is impressive and definitely has that fight in her to take it to the deeper rounds, with a fearless attitude and top-notch grappling and look to reverse Jandiroba’s top position.
But with Jandiroba being in such fine form, with 5 straight wins over opponents like Xiaonan Yan and Amanda Lemos (no.3 & no.4) over five rounds and 4 unanimous decisions, the veteran’s strong chin and top position can shine over the 5 rounds, becoming the new Strawweight Champion.
Bet: Jandiroba by points @ 4.00
Value: Virna Jandiroba by Points or Mackenzie Dern by Points @1.95
Bautista (16-2) on an 8 fight win streak, Umar (18 – 1) looking to bounce back after losing his 18-fight win streak. I cannot see Umar losing this, and the stark odds back it up.
Mario getting the decision win over Jose Aldo after going 0/10 on his takedowns, and the way he decided to try to win that fight still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Bautista backed it up with a win over a very average looking Patchy Mix. Umar is levels, despite his loss to the best in the division Merab Divalishvili, a fire will be lit under him from his camp if not himself, and he will waste no time bouncing back to his winning ways after a 10-month break.
Bet: Umar Nurmagomedov by points @1.70
Value: Umar by KO/TKO or submission @3.20
22-3, Jailton Almeida is 8-1 in the UFC with a two-fight win streak, Volkov enters the octagon on the back of a split decision loss to Ciryl Gane back in December, prior to that defeat he was on a 4-fight win streak. Volkov 38-11 has 12 wins in the UFC with 6 of those via KO/TKO, Almeida with 4 submissions wins from his 8 in the UFC. Volkov the better striker will have to work hard to stay on his feet though if he does, can certainly out-strike Almeida.
Bet: over 1.5 rounds @ 1.75
Value: Jailton Almeida Submission in Round 1 @ 4.25
14 -5 Rakic on a three-fight losing streak, now 6-4 in the UFC with and a year break, goes up against 15-0 Murzakanov, 5-0 in the UFC with 4 wins via KO/TKO last fighting in June.
Rakic will have the size difference and has fought the tougher assignments, but Murzakanov has the Knockout stats to back him up and the quick ability to close that reach advantage, if he doesn’t, it’s a stand and jab for Rakic to a decision.
Bet: Murzakanov KO/TKO @2.90