After four quarter-finals last weekend we’re down to the final four teams standing.
Otago and Waikato set the tone early with a high scoring affair. Hawke’s Bay got the job done over Taranaki, the Steamers made light work of the Mako and Canterbury barely scrapped past Counties Manukau.
It sets up two cracking semi-finals so we’re going to do something a little different this week.
Rather than the best bet, next best, same game multi and four leg multi, I’m just going to preview both games with a bet and same game multi for each.
Let’s get into the first game 👇
Otago started strong last weekend against Waikato, getting off to a flyer, which is lucky because they let it slip in the second half. You’d think 44 points in a knockout game is enough to breeze through, but it ended up being a three-point win thanks to a penalty from Miller in the 82nd minute.
The Steamers were the opposite.
Started slow, falling behind and not getting a lot going on attack. They trailed 7-6 at the half but then turned it around in the second 40, scoring 21 unanswered points to win 27-7.
Now, the Steamers are favourites to make it through to the final, but they play away from home in front of a raucous Otago crowd. Otago will be right up for this one in front of their home crowd; they’ve not won the NPC since 1998 and only won it on one other occasion.
There will be some players in their lineup who would’ve been hoping for calls for the NZ and NZ XV squads named earlier this week… they’ll be playing with a real chip on their shoulder.
Bay of Plenty, though, have the experience. Making it to the finals last year, they’ll be hoping to go one better this time around.
I’m expecting points, but a tight affair still so backing either team by less than 7.5 points.
SGM: @ $5.31
- Otago Win 1-12
- Over 55.5 Total Points
- Fehi Fineanganofo / Jona Nareki 1+ Tries Combined
This is another game where I think the underdog could come through.
Canterbury, after I talked them up big time last week, were disappointing against Counties. They trailed at halftime before pulling it out of the bag in extra time to win 23-15.
Hawke’s Bay were a tad more clinical against an impressive Taranaki side, winning their quarter-final 26-12.
Neither of these games eclipsed 40 points, yet this total is set at 53.5 points.
It’s during these do-or-die games that the good teams tighten up on defence and find a way to win in those tight finishes. I think that’s going to be the case in Christchurch on Saturday.
The Otago game it’s maybe a different story, but between these two sides, the under is the play here. Both sides, as mentioned above, will look to be very strong defensively, and the winner will be the side that can take advantage of the small moments.
I’d love to back the Bay, but after the unders, I’d be taking Hawke’s Bay +7.5.
SGM: @ $7.98
- Hawke’s Bay +7.5
- Under 48.5 Total Points
- Jonah Lowe / Zarn Sullivan 1+ Tries Combined