NFL Week 7 Preview

40 is the new 30!

We’re going to find out if that is actually true when Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers go head-to-head on Thursday Night Football.

The Steelers are fresh off a bye and sitting pretty at 4-1with their only loss coming against the Seahawks in Week 2. They beat their division opponents/bogey team, the Browns two weeks back, limiting them to just three field goals.

Against another divisional opponent this week, Mike Tomlin will have his troops fired up and ready to lay waste to this Bengals team.

Will they decimate them? No, because that’s not what the Steelers really do, and the Bengals now have Joe Flacco at the helm.

The Bengals are 2-4 but have been terrible over the last month. The front office finally bought in a QB capable of winning football games. Flacco was able to get the ball in Ja’Marr Chase’s hands last week, and Chase rewarded his side with 94 yards on 10 catches and a touchdown.

I don’t think the Bengals are back to competing fully in these games, but give Flacco a few more reps, and they might be able to compete again. Back the Steelers to win by more than two field goals.

I’ve found a betcha boost I like. Chase and Metcalf both to record 70+ Receiving Yards, paying $4.00. Chase has cleared that in both his last games, as has Metcalf.

With two QBs who will be spinning the rock to their WR1, this feels like a great bet.

Another value bet here, and it’s a bit niche, so stick with me.

Evan McPherson Over 6.5 Total Points paying $2.00. McPherson has only gone over this number once all season, so this is definitely a risky bet. But as I’ve said, the offence actually looked functional last week, and if they’re able to move the ball, McPherson should have a few scoring opportunities.

My Bets:

• Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 @ $1.90
• Betcha Boost: Ja’Marr Chase & DK Metcalf both to have 70+ Receiving Yards @ $4.00
• Evan McPherson Over 6.5 Total Points @ $2.00

Last week’s game was an all-time stinker and probably put any fans in the UK off American Football. Hopefully, the matchup between two competent teams at 4-2 can redeem the sport.

Matthew Stafford’s offence has been humming, but the thought of losing Puka Nacua hurts. They stay reasonably balanced, though, being able to run the ball well and a more than qualified WR2 in Davante Adams.

The Jags have pulled out some good wins, too, and they’ll be starting to wonder if they’re finally set to get what they thought they would out of Trevor Lawrence. Last week’s loss to the Seahawks hurts, no doubt, but they’ll take some positives away from it nonetheless.

Their star wideout found the endzone for the first time since Week 1. It was his first receiving touchdown for the season, and it came on a 21-yard catch.

Last week was a bit of an outlier in terms of points scored for both of these sides. It sees the total set at 44.5 points, which I think is a bit of an overreaction.

Travel for both sides, a bounce back week for the Jags, I think they can at least cover the spread and see this total clear in what is going to be a very back-and-forth game.

My Bets:

• Over 44.5 Total Points @ $1.90
• Brian Thomas Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.55
• Jacksonville Jaguars +3 @ $1.90

How about them Chiefs!

Now, there may have been some marginal calls in that Lions game and plenty of people were not happy about it.

Chiefs fans, however, were delighted because they avoided falling to 2-4 on the season and at 3-3 with the offence they’ve been running so far, you’d take that. Now they add back Rashee Rice to the mix. Perfect timing for a divisional matchup.

The Las Vegas Raiders come to town, and they are not quite having the start to the season they would’ve hoped for.

Gino Smith is struggling to get this offence going.

Ashton Jeanty, though, has started to look more like the elite prospect he had been dubbed as. Plenty of carries, he’s getting touches through the air too, and he’s scoring touchdowns.

This week will be tougher for him coming up against that has stuffed some of the league’s best backs. They’ll keep feeding him the ball, though (23 carries last week!), and I was going to play his unders, but it’s only set at 61.5. Gibbs had 17 carries last week for 65 yards. If we see the same usage from Jeanty, I’d expect a similar result.

Rashee Rice, as mentioned above, is back in the mix and going to be causing plenty of problems for the Raiders’ defence. All the other weapons will benefit from this, too, and Pat Mahomes will be able to take advantage of this. Take his over in passing yards.

Last week, we nailed Pat Mahomes anytime touchdown scorer, and I’m keen to nail another longer odds scorer. The addition of Rashee Rice for the Chiefs should open up some opportunities elsewhere. Mainly, I think for Tyquan Thornton, who will see fewer snaps but will be more threatening for that long ball that Mahomes has dialled up.

If he’s scoring, it’ll be on the back of a 30+ yard pass.

My Bets:

• Ashton Jeanty Over 61.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.88
• Patrick Mahomes Over 259.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88
• Tyquan Thornton Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $4.50

Like I said at the start, vibes are high in New York thanks to Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo. They just knocked off Philly last week and will have another tough ask as they welcome the Broncos.

The Broncos played half the part in one of the worst football games in a long time last week. But the 13-11 win over the Jets in London moved them to 4-2.

Bo Nix has not been able to stay consistent with his performance and string back-to-back performances together.

They’ve travelled back from London, had a stinker, and are playing a team that plays fearless football. I think the Giants get another win under their belts.

Jaxson Dart has been playing with one of the worst receiving groups in the league, but he’s been making it work and doing it with his legs. The Broncos’ defence is going to make it even harder for Dart through the air, so expect him to do it even more with his legs.

Dart has two rushing touchdowns in three games, Skattebo has five in his last five, including a hat-trick last week. I’m loving what I’m seeing and going to back the two of them to combine for two touchdowns at home.

My Bets:

• New York Giants to Win @ $3.80
• Jaxson Dart 40+ Rushing Yards @ $1.85
• Jaxson Dart & Cam Skattebo to have 2+ Touchdowns Combined @ $5.00

Sunday Night Football, and this is a very intriguing fixture. George Kittle is hoping to play for the 49ers, which will, of course, help their chances. Buuuuuut they’re going to be without Fred Warner, who suffered a horrific ankle injury last week.

So who’s going to stop Bijan Robinson?

Because no one could last week.

The Falcons knocked off the Bills, who have dropped two games in a row and now get a timely bye. But it was all Atlanta, Bijan & Drake London

Bijan had 238 total yards last week! 170 on the ground and a touchdown. Drake London had 158 yards through the air and a touchdown as well. Penix and his offence put up 443 yards of total offence!

So what’s stopping them from doing the same this weekend? Not a lot, I’d say.

And they’ll have an even better chance at winning if their defence can replicate half of what they did last week.

There are so many touchdown scorers you could go with, but I’m lumping the three main threats to combine for three or more.

I’m picking that there will be plenty of scoring opportunities with both sides humming. Yes, the 9ers lost last week to Tampa, but Tampa are the real deal. Mac Jones was still spinning the rock, and McCaffrey is healthy, so they should hold up okay.

Take the over in this primetime matchup.

My Bets:

• Atlanta Falcons to Win @ $2.10
• Bijan Robinson / Christian McCaffrey / Drake London to have 3+ Touchdowns Combined @ $2.25
• Over 47 Total Points @ $1.90

Once again, we have two MNF to look forward to, and they’re actually two really good games.

The first is a heavyweight bout between two NFC teams.

The Detroit Lions require a bounce-back win after getting smoked by the Chiefs last week.

The Bucs are riding high at the moment on the back of Baker Mayfield playing at an MVP level.

The Lions are favoured at home but by too much in my opinion. This Tampa side have already been underdogs on multiple occasions and more often than not, come out on top or covered the spread at least.

My first play for this one is to back the Bucs against the spread. They’re at 5-1 for a reason and 3-0 against the spread on the road.

If we’re baking the Bucs then we’ve got to get on Baker to continue playing at the elite level. Pat Mahomes had a good day out against the Lions and Baker will likely do the same. He gets Mike Evans back too which will boost this offence even more.

We backed it last week it last week and it was a winner, we’ll do it again. Rachaad White touchdown on the back on three in his last two games.

My Bets:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 @ $1.90
• Baker Mayfield Over 242.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88
• Rachaad White Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $1.98

To round off Week 7 of the NFL we have the Seahawks taking on the Texans and I think Seattle come out on top in front of their home crowd.

Back-to-back wins for the Texans has helped get their season back on track as they now sit 2-3 but they beat down the Titans who are no good, and then they pumped the Ravens 44-10 who barely have a defence and clearly don’t have an offence without Lamar Jackson.

The Seahawks on the other hand beat the Jags last week in a low-scoring affair as they held the Jags offense to just 12 points.

They’ll win this match-up on the back of their defence but they’ve also arguably got the hottest receiver in football at the moment, JSN.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is averaging 117 yards, 7 receptions and 9 targets a game. He’s cleared the hundo mark in his last two outings with touchdowns in both.

This could be a sneaky high-scoring game. I’m confident Darnold will be out there slinging the rock, but if Stroud can get in rhythm too then we’ll be in for a real treat.

My Bets:

• Seattle Seahawks -3 @ $1.87
• Over 41 Total Points @ $1.90
• Betcha Boost: Jaxon Smith-Njigba to Have 100+ Receiving Yards, 1+ TD & Seattle Seahawks Win @ $6.50