NFL Week 5 Preview

Let’s get stuck into this NFC West match-up, and the bookies are heavily favouring the Rams here.

Brock Purdy – Out, Juan Jennings – Out, Ricky Pearsall – Out.

Mac Jones steps back in at quarterback, but his last start actually resulted in a win for the 9ers. Christian McCaffrey will play a big role here, but this Rams defence will have something to say about that.

When the Rams faced the reigning OPOY, Saquon Barkley, they held him to 46 yards on 18 carries. However, McCaffrey is a threat in the passing game, too. He normally has quite an impact when he faces the Rams. Rushing for 90+ yards in the two games he’s played for the Rams as a 49er, and he had three total touchdowns.

In his last two games, bear in mind that with two separate QBs, he’s had 88 and 92 receiving yards as well.

Now, let’s look at the stud on the Rams’ offence. Puka Nacua.

WR1 on the year, and he is not just a magnet for Stafford but a safety blanket too.

170 yards last week against the Colts, 13 catches and a touchdown, I mean, what more could you want?

This Rams offence is absolutely humming. Take out Puka, and you still have Kyren Williams, Tutu Atwell, and Davante Adams are firing on all cylinders, so I’m backing them to clear their point total and be the first team to score more than 26 points this year against the 49ers.

My Bets:

• Puka Nacua 100+ Receiving Yards @ $2.75 (Super Boost)
• Christian McCaffrey / Puka Nacua to have 150+ Receiving Yards Combined @ $1.80
• Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.10
• Los Angeles Rams Over 26.5 Total Points @ $1.78

Back-to-back games for the Vikings and a London rematch when the Browns come to town. These two played at Twickenham in 2017, and the Vikings came out on top 33-16 but this time around, it looks like points might be at a premium.

The Vikings are banged up, especially in that O-line, and Carson Wentz might be in for a long day when this Cleveland defence is rolled out.

For the Browns, they’ve benched veteran quarterback Joe Flacco and made the decision to start the rookie out of Oregon, Dillon Gabriel.

A real curve ball for the rookie getting his first start in London, and just like Wentz, could be in for a rough day with how much this Vikings team uses the blitz.

To take the pressure off Gabriel, I’m expecting the Browns to use Quinshon Judkins A LOT! Both running the ball and likely with some screens and RPOs. He had 115 total yards last time out and a touchdown to match.

I think experience and time spent in the EU time zones play a part in deciding the winner in London. Give me the Vikings.

My Bets:

• Vikings -3.5 @ $1.90
• Dillon Gabriel Under 189.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88
• Quinshon Judkins Over 71.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.88

The 4-0 Eagles, whose offence vanished in the second half against the Buccaneers, welcome the Denver Broncos.

After a hot start in the first half, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles actually had negative yardage during the third and fourth quarters.

The Broncos are 2-2 and, as expected, dealt to the Bengals and move forward with confidence. Bo Nix finally got going, Sutton and Mims were in the mix, and RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins both had a field day.

How do they fare against the Eagles on a short week heading east?

Well, the Eagles continue to grind out the wins, and Jalen Hurts seems to be able to pick and choose whether he’s going to get the passing game going or run the ground-and-pound playbook.

Considering the Broncos’ defence, I think they’ll struggle taking downfield options and look to break the Broncos open through the run.

I’m not fully sold on the Broncos being a real threat, and betting against the Eagles has been tough sledding so far, so I’ve made the decision to ride with them at home, and I’m also expecting to see more points than what the bookies are picking.

My Bets:

• Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 @ $1.87
• Over 43.5 Total Points @ $1.90
• Saquon Barkley 18+ Rushing Attempts @ $TBC

The Seahawks did just enough to squeeze past the Arizona Cardinals last week after a fourth quarter comeback. They’re 3-1 the Seahawks, and this will be a good test to see where they fit in with the big boys.

The Buccaneers nearly pulled off the comeback to beat the Eagles before Baker Mayfield threw a pick trying to get one in the endzone late in the fourth. What they did do well was keep Saquon Barkley quiet, and they’ll need to do the same against Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet.

Emeka Egbuka’s target share continues to increase each week, and with no Mike Evans still, Egbuka remains WR1 as Godwin is eased back into this offence.

To put it simply, Egbuka is a dawg, and Baker Mayfield loves that.

I think we see a shootout between two quarterbacks here who like to move the ball up the field and are not afraid to take their chances. Both Smith-Njigba and Egbuka will be heavily involved.

Baker knows how to win games and just like the Broncos, I’m not fully sold in this Seahawks side.

My Bets:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Win @ $2.55
• Emeka Egbuka Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.35
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba / Emeka Egbuka to have 150+ Receiving Yards Combined @ $TBC

Sunday Night Football features the Bills hosting the Patriots, a key AFC East divisional matchup.

Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level once again and is already the runaway favourite to take home the award again. The issue for Patriots fans is their defence and the inability to stop the aerial barrage.

They rank among the worst pass defences in the league, and are allowing 241 passing yards per game.

This is going to be very Bills-focused and for good reason. Allen is 10-2 on Sunday Night Football and is even better under the lights when at home.

James Cook leads the NFL with five rushing touchdowns and is second in rushing yards. They’ve loved running the ball in the red zone, whether it’s through James Cook or Allen. I’d expect three touchdowns combined from them in prime time.

The only way I see the Patriots staying in this is if Drake Maye can sling the rock around. He helped Diggs to his first 100+ yard game as a Patriot last week, and he’ll need that sort of production from him again.

My Bets:

• Buffalo Bills -8 @ $1.90
• James Cook / Josh Allen to have 3+ Touchdowns Combined @ $4.00
• Stefon Diggs Over 46.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88

Trevor Lawrence vs Patrick Mahomes under the lights at EverBank Stadium.

The Jags reeled off a win last week against the Brock Purdy-led 49ers. Trevor Lawrence did what he needed to do, but it was Travis Etienne who was the standout out with 125 yards and a touchdown.

The Chiefs got their second win of the season, and Patrick Mahomes was back to his best, throwing for four touchdowns and 270 yards. He had his speedster Xavier Worthy back, who made an instant impact with 121 total yards. A much-needed spark for the KC offence.

Looking into this one, the total points feel like it may be a touchdown or two too many. Yes, the Chiefs put up 37 against the Ravens, but we just saw the Texans put 44 on the Ravens, too.

Jacksonville have also not been the most consistent when it comes to putting up points, with their games going under, over, under and then over the total points. The Chiefs’ defence is also a very good one, and Trevor might struggle to move the ball up the field.

We also know how this Chiefs team can play this season, and I’m not betting all my chips based on that performance last week.

In saying that, the one consistent piece of the Jags’ offence has been Travis Etienne. He’s scored a touchdown in each of his last three games.

My Bets:

• Under 45.5 Total Points @ $1.90
• Trevor Lawrence Under 212.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88
• Travis Etienne Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.20