Injuries have disrupted the preparations of both teams heading into Friday night.
Marcelo Montoya and Bronson Xerri are big losses for a Canterbury side that typically gets great value out of their outside backs in yardage. Blake Wilson and Jethro Rinakama are handy replacements and are both blessed with speed, but neither will carry the Bulldogs out of trouble like the men they’re replacing.
Meanwhile, Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen leave enormous holes in Melbourne’s spine. Their absence likely forces a change to how the Storm look to attack in this one, and fortunately for Melbourne that plays right into their greatest strength right now; Harry Grant.
Melbourne aren’t stacked with big bodies like Cronulla are but the Sharks had some joy crashing Canterbury’s middle last week. It’s where Grant does his best work and it’s where I expect the Storm to expend most of their energy and efforts on Friday night; turning the ball back inside to put fatigue into the Bulldogs middle and lay the platform for Grant to run amok.
Mitch Kenny is an enormous loss for the Penrith Panthers here.
While the Warriors have played out most of the regular season with key players missing from their spine, Kenny has been a constant for the Panthers in 2025 and they don’t have the luxury or quality of depth of year’s past. Not only will Kenny’s service and decision making from behind the ruck be missed, but his absence in the defensive line now offers a huge spot for the Warriors attack.
With the home ground advantage and no external pressures or expectations in the playoffs, there’s a lot to like about the Warriors here. They’ve excelled in the grind to be one of the more resilient defensive outfits in the NRL this season and are happier than most to win games late or ugly. That’s exactly how they’ll need to beat the defending champs in this one and they might just have the forward rotation to do it.
If New Zealand can tidy up the errors and assist Tannah Boyd in ending their sets effectively, they will like their chances in the grind against this Panthers middle.
Cronulla have powered their way into the 2025 NRL finals series with seven wins from their past eight games. Blayke Brailey running behind the biggest forward rotation in the competition has unsurprisingly proven a winning formula as Nicho Hynes and Will Kennedy play on the back of their dummy-half.
It’s a nice look for this Sharks attack, but only when supported by a clean completion rate and a good fifth tackle kick. Cronulla have got both right in the past month and will need to do so again here against an Easts side that is well equipped to punish any cheap errors made.
The Roosters have so many genuine avenues to the try line right now. Their ability to ask multiple questions of the defence – at the same time and on consecutive tackles – puts enormous pressure on their opposition to scramble and reset under fatigue.
The spaces around Nicho Hynes will almost certainly be a target for Easts in this one. Cronulla’s right edge has been a spot for opposing teams all year and while they might get it right the first few times, I like the Roosters to keep going back to the well until they strike.
Stylistically and individually, this is the match of the round.
Brisbane have doubled down on Reece Walsh in attack to average 38 points per game over the last month. His speed in the jockey position puts so much stress on edge defenders to make a decision and lately Walsh has been punishing those decisions more often than not with either a pass, kick or run.
It’s what the Broncos are doing in the lead up to any Walsh highlight reel moment that is most encouraging, though. Their scramble defence inside-twenty last week against Melbourne was superb; ruck defenders stayed tight and connected before pushing hard from the inside to release the edges, getting plenty of Broncos jerseys in the picture.
We know Brisbane have points in them but it’s how they defend errors that will define their 2025 NRL finals campaign, and last week was a promising start.
For all the Canberra doubters, we finally get our first look at how their attacking systems hold up in the pressure of finals footy.
They’re one of the few rival clubs who can go toe-to-toe with Brisbane in a grind or a shoot-out, but how they defend on the edges against this Broncos backline might be the difference.