Special teams for the win!!!
Unless you’re a Rams +3.5 bettor like I was last weekend… that has to be the worst bad beat of the year.
The Chiefs have the same record as the Ravens. Dan Campbell doesn’t just rely on his coordinators. The Bengals have a problem. And the Eagles are 3-0.
Jaxon Dart is set to start for the Giants this week, but it might not be all fun and games when he lines up under centre. It might just be the coaching of Brian Daboll.
Yep, I’m saying it might not be Russ, and the reason is that Daniel Jones has left the Giants and has turned into Josh Allen.
Literally…
They have almost the exact same stats through three weeks of football. (Good luck Jaxson Dart)
Anyway, let’s move on from Week 3 and look forward to another slate of games 👇
Sam Darnold is finally looking comfortable in Seattle colours. He led his side to a 44-13 win over the Saints, throwing for two touchdowns and 218 yards.
Smith-Njigba was his favourite target, going for 96 yards and a score.
The Cardinals were won of the teams that suffered at the hands of special teams when Piñeiro walked it off for the Niners.
Good news for Cardinals fans is that Trey McBride scored and looked good, and will now come up against one of the best Tight End matchups he’ll face all season.
The bad news is Marvin Harrison Jr. may be broken. And I don’t mean injured…
Looking ahead to this one, the previously mentioned Trey McBride should cook against this Seattle defence and with question marks around the other pass catchers Kyler Murray has it his disposal, I think he’ll look to feed McBride.
On a short week, the Cardinals get the luxury of being at home for this NFC West matchup but are going to be without their RB1, James Connor, who suffered a season-ending injury last week.
They’ve struggled to get going offensively but have shown flashes on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, Seattle seem to be finding their feet and are starting to click on the back of two convincing wins. I’ll play the points with Darnold and the Seahawks in Primetime.
The Cardinals’ secondary is going to have its hands full when Smith-Njigba lines up. His explosiveness and precision with his route running has made him a fan favourite of Darnold and I think we’ll see at least a couple of deep shot attempts come his way.
My Bets:
- Seattle Seahawks -1 @ $1.90
- Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $3.05
- Sam Darnold Longest Completion Over 34.5 Yards @ $1.85
For our Thursday Night Football games this year, we have juiced up the offer on the TNF games. Now, if you place a 3+ leg SGM and it loses by any number of legs, you’ll get your stake back as bonus cash up to $25.
So without further ado…
My TNF Send it SGM @ $25.52
- Seattle Win 1-13
- Kenneth Walker Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Sam Darnold 225+ Passing Yards
We’re off to Dublin for the first ever NFL game in Ireland. The Minnesota Vikings take on the Pittsburgh Steelers and will make Dublin the fourth European city to host an NFL fixture.
Both teams had wins last week but Minnesota’s was the more impressive.
They put up 48 points on the Bengals with Jordan Mason running the show with 116 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
However, the real star was Vikings CB Isaiah Rodgers who made history on the defensive side of the ball. He became the first player in NFL history with a pick 6, a fumble return for a touchdown and two forced fumbles in a single game. And he did it all in the first half.
If he carries on this way in Dublin, things are going to be real tough for Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers.
It’s a tough pick head-to-head. My gut says Steelers because Minnesota are playing with their backup up and all Mike Tomlin will have to do is slow down Jordan Mason.
But this Vikings defence is top 10 in the league, and aside from the opening game, this Steelers offence hasn’t been much to write home about.
Here’s the stat that has me thinking the Vikings cover -2.5:
The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games as underdogs.
Factor in a trip to Ireland for Uncle Aaron, and my mind was made.
DK Metcalf, yes not as a Steeler, but has scored in three consecutive games when playing the Vikings. He also found the endzone last week and if the Steelers want to be in with a chance come the fourth quarter, they’re going to have to be more aggressive in the passing game.
I mentioned Jordan Mason earlier, but it would be stupid not to punt him this week while Carson Wentz is still under centre. I’ll take his yards and a touchdown.
My Bets:
- Vikings -2.5 @ $1.90
- DK Metcalf Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.35
- Jordan Mason Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $1.82
- Jordan Mason Over 80.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.88
If you’re taking all three as an SGM, that will give you $11.78
This could be a playoff game in the making, and I’d even go as far as saying potentially the NFC Championship game.
After the Eagles escaped last week thanks to a blocked field goal resulting in a scoop and score and the Packers lost to the BROWNS!!!
The next hope for the NFC falls on Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers.
Both sides are 3-0 to start the season, so something has to give.
Looking at the line of 3.5, I’m scared from last week’s line, which was the exact same, and we were cruising to a Rams win…
The only way to get over your fears is by facing them and I’m going to do just that by taking Bucs +3.5 this week against the Super Bowl champs.
They’ve engineered three consecutive last-second wins thanks to Baker Mayfield playing like a top five quarterback. They’ve also won three of their last four games at Raymond James Stadium so back the Bucs to cover at home.
They’ll likely be without Mike Evans, but that just means Emeka Egbuka will step up to WR1.
He’s emerged as the favourite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, leading his team in receiving yards and tied for fourth in the league with three touchdowns.
I’m also going to take the over for this one. The Bucs are scoring 20+ a game, Philly asked Jalen Hurts to throw the ball last week, and they put up 33 (yes, a scoop and score inflated that), but they’ve scored 20+ in each game too.
43.5 total points doesn’t quite feel like enough.
My Bets:
- Buccaneers +3.5 @ $1.90
- Emeka Egbuka 70+ Receiving Yards @ 1.92
- Over 43.5 Total Points @ $1.90
If you’re taking all three as an SGM, that will give you $6.70
Another fixture this week that could be a Championship game, this time on the AFC side.
Chiefs vs Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium… remarkably, both sides are 1-2 on the season!
In fairness, both sides have played good teams, with the Chiefs losing to the Eagles and the Chargers, and the Ravens losing to the Bills and the Lions.
The Chiefs’ offence took a while to get going on SNF last week against the Giants, with Mahomes and Kelce looking in all sorts and not real athleticism flying around. Mahomes finally clicked with Tyquan Thornton for some massive gains, and Kareem Hunt rolled over for the touchdown.
The Ravens got punched in the mouth by Dan Campbell’s Lions. Lamar Jackson continues to be a cheat code, and it seems like he’s reintroduced himself to Mark Andrews, who had two scores and 91 yards with six catches.
Derrick Henry remains a problem, though… only 50 rushing yards and another fumble.
Mahomes finds himself as an underdog at home once again, and that’s because the Ravens are in a different class at the moment. The easy pick here is to take the Ravens to cover -2.5, and reluctantly, that’s what I’m going to tip here.
They need a bounce-back win after last week, and the Chiefs are struggling to beat some of the worst teams in football, aka the Giants.
If I could bet on a Derrick Henry fumble, I would. But we can’t so I’m going to turn to their other running back, Justice Hill. Last week, we took is under 12.5 rushing yards, and he didn’t even get a single carry. He was more of a passing-down back.
I don’t see that changing here.
On the plus side for Kansas City, Xavier Worthy might be suiting up, and I’d hope Andy Reid is scheming up some plays to get him the ball and into the endzone.
My Bets:
- Baltimore Ravens -2.5 @ $1.87
- Justice Hill Under 8.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.88
- Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.70
If you’re taking all three as an SGM, that will give you $11.70
How did someone know to schedule this game on Primetime television??
Micah Parsons is lining up against his old team for the first time. And you already know he’s going to get to Dak.
It’s going to be a tough night for him, made even tougher without his safety blanket, CeeDee Lamb.
The worst thing for the Cowboys was the Packers’ loss last week to the Browns.
Jordan Love and the rest of the team had a bad outing, and you already know they’ll be crossing every ‘t’ and dotting every ‘i’ this week.
This could get ugly for the Cowboys, and I don’t think the 7-point spread is enough. The Packers are at least 10 points better than Dallas, so I’m going to take an alternate spread of -10.
Matthew Golden was a big talking point heading into the season, and he hasn’t put up numbers yet, but he’s been oh so close.
The Cowboys secondary stinks, and it’s finally time for a Golden breakout game.
On the other side of the ball, George Pickens is going to have to be the guy for Dak. Expect him to receive a fair share of the targets.
My Bets:
- Green Bay Packers -10 @ $2.50
- Matthew Golden 60+ Receiving Yards @ $3.40
- George Pickens Over 57.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88
The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are no good football teams.
Luckily, we only have to watch this game for an hour before the Bengals take on the Broncos in what should be easier on the eye.
Back to this fixture, both these sides are 0-3 and tied for last in the AFC East.
This is a game that the Dolphins can win if they run the ball. For two reasons:
The Dolphins haven’t had too many problems moving the chains on offence, but they just haven’t had enough ball to do so because Tua is throwing it to the other team
And the second reason being, the Jets have allowed an average of 133 rushing yards per game so far, and McDaniels has a great 1-2 combo in Achane and Ollie Gordon III.
Another rush-focused prop here, but let’s get it done and move on to the next game.
Justin Fields has had a field day when facing the Dolphins in the past! Last time out, he had a total of 301 yards and four total touchdowns.
The Dolphins have been torched by mobile quarterbacks already this year, so expect the same from Fields.
My Bets:
- De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $1.75
- Ollie Gordon III Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $3.90
- Justin Fields Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.75
If you’re taking all three as an SGM, that will give you $19.37
The second of the double header, Jake Browning and the Bengals, taking on Bo Nix and the Broncos.
The Bengals return to action eight days after the 48-10 loss to the Vikings. The Bengals’ defence is one of the worst in the league last year, and it is causing problems once again.
Even more concerning… their offence ranks in the bottom 10 too.
The Broncs have dropped back-to-back games thanks to walk-off field goals. They’ve not trailed once in the fourth quarter this year up until the final kick.
We’re going to ride with the upside that is Chase Brown. He’s been held to 47, 43 and 3 rush yards this year, but he’s almost always getting hit at the line of scrimmage. He’s used to slow starts, but the Broncos’ defence has allowed an average of over 100+ rushing yards per game.
I expect to see Brown get more involved, and the game plan to be centred around Cincy running the ball.
Bo Nix has passed for 176, 206, and 153 yards through three games this season. Towards the back end of last season, though, he was throwing for 250+, hitting this number in five of the last seven games.
If a quarterback ever needed a confidence booster and one to get in rhythm for the season, it’s against the Bengals’ defence. He should clear the 218.5 line, provided it’s not a blowout.
Lastly, one of these teams will be bouncing back from a Week 3 loss, and my money is with the Broncos, who are two plays away from being 3-0.
My Bets:
- Chase Brown Over 53.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.88
- Bo Nix Over 216.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88
- Denver Broncos -7.5 @ $1.90
If you’re taking all three as an SGM, that will give you $6.07
Each week, the Touchdown Factory opens up and provides four TD scorers for Monday’s games.
This is what’s being served up for Week 4:
- Nico Collins Anytime Touchdown @ $2.10
- DK Metcalf Anytime Touchdown @ $2.35
- Cam Skattebo Anytime Touchdown @ $1.85
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown @ $2.10